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✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019


north pgh
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1 minute ago, dj3 said:

The icon now brings the low basically right up to western Pa. The solutions that were spitting out big snow totals had more of a w/e trajectory underneath our latitude.

Good thing it's the ICON. A model no one really takes seriously for forecasts. Gfs time!

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Just now, MikeB_01 said:

I think as i look at it now, its what we were talking about last night. The icon doesn't have the mix on tropical tidbits. I think the map that i posted early, even though it looks tasty, is probably a lot of ice

Gotcha. Missed that earlier. That would make a lot more sense if some of that was sleet.

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1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

agreed. GFS is trash

I agree but Canadian has about a 12 hour period of rain as well. There is still 4 days to go but our normal mix rain to rain back to 1-2 inches of fluffy backside snow and cold is on the menu ready to be served as our annual Winter special. :devilsmiley:

 

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2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I agree but Canadian has about a 12 hour period of rain as well. There is still 4 days to go but our normal mix rain to rain back to 1-2 inches of fluffy backside snow and cold is on the menu ready to be served as our annual Winter special. :devilsmiley:

 

Nope I'll build a HARRP machine and force this thing south before that happens. 

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1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Definitely SE, but also is it slower? GFS at 120 already has the storm on the NY/PA border at that time.

yes it is significantly slower. I think that is why we get the s and e trend. Cause the energy is slower, it never fully phases with the PV and keeps it moving more w to e 

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1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

yes it is significantly slower. I think that is why we get the s and e trend. Cause the energy is slower, it never fully phases with the PV and keeps it moving more w to e 

Interesting. Well, sometimes the UKMET is a preview of the Euro or at least a hint at the direction it may move. The Euro "can" be a bit over amped in the medium range (day 4-6) so it's possible we could see it come back SE if its over doing the phase. Meanwhile the GFS is within the envelope so I'm not to worried about it yet. Looks like the CMC jumps the energy, not seeing other guidance do that really but would make sense to some degree.

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Thoughts from PBZ:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
- Still watching for potential winter storm Saturday
- Coldest air of the winter Sunday - Monday
- Keep checking forecast if you have plans Saturday 

Latest GEFS and EPS still offer up two camps of solutions for
the track of low pressure. The latest trend is for more rain to
mix in across southwest PA than previous runs as warm air on the
windward side of the mountains gets pulled up /warm wedge/. 
However, we can't stick in a fork in a areawide accumulation 
because several GEFS members still point to several inches of 
the white stuff. One thing is certain, it will rain, snow, or a
wintry mix thus allowing pops to be categorical. 

The earliest headlines /winter storm watch/ for the area won't 
be issued until Thursday, so still plenty of time for numerical 
guidance to get a better handle on the track of low pressure and
if a coastal system develops. 

Ptype will change to all snow Saturday night as much colder air
arrives. A light to moderate snow accumulation is
possible Saturday night into Sunday. H8 temps plummet into the 
-20C range Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will likely fall all
 day Sunday while wind chill values fall below zero area wide
 Sunday night. If the forecast holds wind chill headlines look
 to be a good bet in the mountains and north of I-80. Thankfully
 clouds will be around Sunday night into Monday, otherwise the
 mercury would really bottom out. As of now, widespread single
 digits are forecast with sub zero values north of I-80.
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