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✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019


north pgh
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2 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

I’m fine with a 4-6” event even-I won’t complain if i end up with that imby....starting out as rain though would be horrendous and sloppy....

Which looking at the gfs it wasnt temps just more so less precip. Gonna be a long week of tracking. 

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8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Not sure where the slop is coming from. I am looking at the soundings and while they say "freezing rain", the entire parcel of air is below freezing? Any ideas?

Interesting. Not sure why that would be. I'm mainly curious to keep an eye on 2 things, 1. Models keep the same general idea of the storm. 2. Keep an eye on track and see if we start seeing more going NW vs SE etc. We've been bit by the PV multiple times in the past over flexing and pushing stuff SE, hopefully for once it can help us.

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Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said:

That's what I thought too. GFS seems to keep the system more disorganized which helps keep it SE of us. If it amps sooner we will need more confluence to keep it a snow event.

Noticed that too. The energy at the 500 mb level was really strung out from ohio through texas. When we were getting those massive totals, the energy was concentrated and bulldozing right into western PA

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16 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I don't think this even tells the whole story... Probably a good bit of zr / sleet / rain mixed in... but: :o

IMG_1888.thumb.PNG.d432f2713191ddc75c45308eb181c821.PNG

I know it's way to early to be analyzing soundings but would like to see how much of each p-type there is for fun.

And total qpf:(I'd bet the under but still fun to look at)

download (86).png

Lock it in. 

Hey all I have a quick question.  I used to always chat with everyone on the accuweather forums...anyone here from there?  I'm going to miss it this year I think with all these storms in the pipeline.

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12 minutes ago, pghwx said:

Lock it in. 

Hey all I have a quick question.  I used to always chat with everyone on the accuweather forums...anyone here from there?  I'm going to miss it this year I think with all these storms in the pipeline.

Welcome! I was never on the Accuweather forum, but i do believe some of the others on here spent some time on there. We have a pretty nice core group of people who post on this forum. Hope you'll join us for some tracking.

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24 minutes ago, pghwx said:

Lock it in. 

Hey all I have a quick question.  I used to always chat with everyone on the accuweather forums...anyone here from there?  I'm going to miss it this year I think with all these storms in the pipeline.

I used to chat on those forums in conjunction with this site (which used to be easternuswx, as well).  Been a while since I've been there, though.

As for this weekend, I'm not buying any single OP solution just yet.  All the finer details will have to get worked out as we get closer to the event.  The most important note right now is that there is a signal for something big, and a pretty alarming signal at that - showing up on quite literally all the models a week out?  Pretty incredible and honestly, rare.

Being in the bullseye this early would be difficult to deal with, though.  Don't want to get too invested in this system given the rather unusual path it could possibly take.

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Only problem I see with today's runs is the EPS went a little north. We can't let that mean keep going NW or we will feel the wrath of the WTOD. 

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on this scenario. It's just happened to us so many times with Allegheny County usually being the dividing zone.

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Just now, north pgh said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png

Where have we seen this before? Usually about 4 or 5 times a winter. 

I hate to joke and I know this is still 5 days out but this still gives us a solid 5 or 6 inches with slop in between. 

1. If the storm moves north we are even more screwed. 

2. If it stays where it is you will see the same old local forecasts of a foot or more north of RT422 and I-80 and 4-6 in central Alleg county with mixing and 2-4 as you go further south.

3. If the Storm moves 50 miles south then we get our monster 8-12 that we have been waiting for.

We need 3 but my odds if I were a betting man are 50% #1, 30% #2, and 20% #3.

We are sooooooooo overdue on that 8-12 storm so I want and demand #3.  Bring it!!!!!!!!!

 

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6 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Where have we seen this before? Usually about 4 or 5 times a winter. 

I hate to joke and I know this is still 5 days out but this still gives us a solid 5 or 6 inches with slop in between. 

1. If the storm moves north we are even more screwed. 

2. If it stays where it is you will see the same old local forecasts of a foot or more north of RT422 and I-80 and 4-6 in central Alleg county with mixing and 2-4 as you go further south.

3. If the Storm moves 50 miles south then we get our monster 8-12 that we have been waiting for.

We need 3 but my odds if I were a betting man are 50% #1, 30% #2, and 20% #3.

We are sooooooooo overdue on that 8-12 storm so I want and demand #3.  Bring it!!!!!!!!!

 

Actually, we got an 8-12 incher in March haha.

 

That said. I put the chances at:

 

1:60

2.35

3.5

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This is the normal windshield wiper effect as Bernie likes to call it. As much as I want to be in the bullseye for 5 straight days we know it's not possible. This miles away from being a major storm and we are still days out. Let's see what the ensembles say. 

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29 minutes ago, dj3 said:

The trend has gone way north in the last 24 hours. That’s not a good sign imo. 6E9D89E1-B659-4CBF-B0AD-FFB4A001DBDC.thumb.png.c949fe86a3f369261411c33e3b3775fc.png

Still alot of time. If we look at the 00z NAM the clipper is super juiced which boads well for a bigger cold push. Let's see what the gfs does before I go to bed and I can just be happy or disappointed tomorrow morning unless we get a run. 

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41 minutes ago, dj3 said:

The trend has gone way north in the last 24 hours. That’s not a good sign imo. 6E9D89E1-B659-4CBF-B0AD-FFB4A001DBDC.thumb.png.c949fe86a3f369261411c33e3b3775fc.png

That's really not unusual in this time frame.  Large jumps in precise locations are relatively normal 4-7 days out.  If it still looks like that come Thursday or Friday, then we can be concerned.

Aside from that, the long range is showing some REALLY cold air dropping into the CONUS (as low as -22F locally).  That will probably moderate in the mid-range, but we could see some bitter temps.

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