Mailman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z Euro starts things off for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Excited for next weekend and coming weekends cautiously. Back to today 18Z NAM holds onto moisture a little longer and gives us a general 3 inches instead of 2. Not a big deal but I will take any trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'll take 3. About what we got all year it seems lol. Double up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stjbeautifulday Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Timing for tomorrow? Is that in play yet? I need to get downtown for 2;00 and back out towards the airport around 4. Then it can snow all it wants! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Weather channel dropped their totals for me tomorrow from 1-3 to 1” only lol AND that’s after the advisory was put up for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Weather channel dropped their totals for me tomorrow from 1-3 to 1” only lol AND that’s after the advisory was put up for me! Lol, wouldn’t trust that. I fully expect you to end up with 3-4 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 TWC sucks for local forecasts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 yea I hope so-its just strange they put out a WWA-then 25 min later the local forecast went from 1-3 day 1-3 night to about an inch during the day and less than an inch at night lol...I wonder what model they use-I thought it was always straight GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 342 AM EST Sat Jan 12 2019 OHZ039>041-048>050-PAZ020-021-029-WVZ001-002-121730- /O.EXB.KPBZ.WW.Y.0003.190112T1700Z-190113T1200Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-Beaver- Allegheny-Washington-Hancock-Brooke- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Coshocton, Cadiz, Steubenville, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington, Canonsburg, Weirton, Follansbee, and Wellsburg 342 AM EST Sat Jan 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From noon today to 7 AM EST Sunday. The heaviest snow accumulation is expected during the late afternoon and evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Let’s hope the visual north trend!on radar doesn’t get squashed as it moves east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Let’s hope the visual north trend!on radar doesn’t get squashed as it moves east.... I'm already looking past this storm for the next one. Although today's storm might have some surprises left especially for those that are gonna get hit by the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm already looking past this storm for the next one. Although today's storm might have some surprises left especially for those that are gonna get hit by the coastal. Yeah If my yard ends up with 2 I’ll take that as a win. Seems the last couple years the zone between I70 and I80 get caught between one way or another. NWS does hint at some possible upside though: Latest guidance shows decent continuity with previous runs in respect to moisture, lift, and thermal profiles but have trended slightly farther north. Based off forecast QPF amounts and snow ratios still expect a broad 3-4 inches in general along I-70 to the south...lower amounts to the north...and between 4 and 5 (locally higher) accumulations in the higher elevations of Tucker, Preston, and Garrett counties. Ensemble guidance and analogs all support this general scenario as well, but higher res models seem to be picking up on a band farther north roughly between PGH and I-80 where we could see some enhancement as the associated mid/upper low shears and an area of deformation possibly sets up by early evening. With that...have bumped up amounts slightly across northern zones and expanded the Winter Weather Advisory. Late afternoon and through the evening looks to be the timeframe when accumulations will be greatest...easing after midnight. Advisories are still set to end Sunday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Saw the most recent NAM and IKON and both have our corner in lighter amounts with heavy to east in somerset and west into OH....figures-whT is it about our corner? The way the apps transfer energy and we end up in a hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Here’s to hoping for a nice 2-4. I’ll be OK with that. Always get fringed on all 4 sides!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 26 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Saw the most recent NAM and IKON and both have our corner in lighter amounts with heavy to east in somerset and west into OH....figures-whT is it about our corner? The way the apps transfer energy and we end up in a hole? Energy dying as it enters Western Pa and then the coastal is too far to the east to affect us. We literally need perfect set ups to score big. Whereas the coast can sneeze and as long as it's cold they can get a big storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 45 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Energy dying as it enters Western Pa and then the coastal is too far to the east to affect us. We literally need perfect set ups to score big. Whereas the coast can sneeze and as long as it's cold they can get a big storm. 1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Saw the most recent NAM and IKON and both have our corner in lighter amounts with heavy to east in somerset and west into OH....figures-whT is it about our corner? The way the apps transfer energy and we end up in a hole? Yea its all about the Apps. Once the energy approaches, typically, it tries to find an easier solution than traveling over the mountains. So instead, it forms a new surface low where it can thrive, like over the Atlantic. Sadly, we live in a very unfortunate area for weather enthusiasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I know we still have a long way to go with this storm, but in terms of the set up at the 500 mb level, the GFS nailed this. Current analysis shows an image almost identical to what the GFS was showing 3-4 days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I'd probably be done tracking this year and maybe next year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 28 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'd probably be done tracking this year and maybe next year. I have no words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 And before I head out for the day and step away from these models. We have the 12z euro. We should move to VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 And before I head out for the day and step away from these models. We have the 12z euro. We should move to VAI said that exact same thing in a post last season when they got nailed down there. I go down there for vacation every year anyway. May as well move there so I can see some decent storms in the winter.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 26 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I have no words... 19 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: And before I head out for the day and step away from these models. We have the 12z euro. We should move to VA SMH F*** Richmond LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 As a former Marylander (Annapolis) who has been in PGH for about 3 years now, it's goes both ways. My family back home was so jealous of the dustings we got in November and December. But now I'm jealous as they wait for 5-8" right now and presumably another big one later on. It's nice that it snows more frequently here but I do miss the intense storms on the coast. I don't know what's better- dry spells with big storms or little dustings somewhat regularly. *Sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 As a former Marylander (Annapolis) who has been in PGH for about 3 years now, it's goes both ways. My family back home was so jealous of the dustings we got in November and December. But now I'm jealous as they wait for 5-8" right now and presumably another big one later on. It's nice that it snows more frequently here but I do miss the intense storms on the coast. I don't know what's better- dry spells with big storms or little dustings somewhat regularly. *Sigh* Dry spells with big storms for me. Snow showers and dustings just don't do it for me. I am enjoying what's coming down right now anyway. I know we aren't going to get near what some others are going to get, but I'm out in it and it's pretty out right now.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Out in the Greensburg area tonight and about an 1” since about 4:00. There is a ton of precip to the SW, so I’m interested to see how things hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Out in the Greensburg area tonight and about an 1” since about 4:00. There is a ton of precip to the SW, so I’m interested to see how things hold together. There’s a nice band south of Columbus, it’ll be interesting to see how far north it makes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 I know we still have a long way to go with this storm, but in terms of the set up at the 500 mb level, the GFS nailed this. Current analysis shows an image almost identical to what the GFS was showing 3-4 days ago. I posted this map of the GFS a few days ago. Seems to be coming to fruition. We're in a bad spot yet again.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Most places in Allegheny County surpasses that already. Spotter reports averaging around 1.5”. if some of those heavier returns in Ohio can hold together, still a chance for a decent little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Most places in Allegheny County surpasses that already. Spotter reports averaging around 1.5”. if some of those heavier returns in Ohio can hold together, still a chance for a decent little event. I wasn't so much concentrating on the number as I was the hole in the precip that was modeled over Allegheny County that seems to be happening right now. And those heavier returns in Ohio seem to be trying to make it over this way but falling short. I haven't had a chance to measure as I've been out and about, but looks like around an inch to me so far where I've been anyway. Just eyeballing it though. Will be keeping an eye on Ohio to see of some of that can make it this far. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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