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✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019


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Agree, thus far things have not made the type of improvements needed to get a significant snow event our way. Maybe because it's so early in the season this one doesn't really bother me. If Southern VA / NC get nailed it's out of sight out of mind vs seeing some sharp gradient cutoff of 12in to 2 inches from I-70 north and watching radar return dbzs drop as the precip approaches. Yeah, maybe part of me is a bit bitter from a few of the storms over the last few years.. but just maybe. lol

We have a few light snow appetizers before the warmup so enjoy what we get, and hope the cold comes back in time for the Holidays. Right now the warmup does look pretty short, and a solid setup looks to be emerging for the end of DEC and early JAN. Maybe we can score an early January Blizzard!

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That northern stream confluence seems to keep getting stronger as modeled.  Getting to the point where we have to cling to a phase solution, and those are always low-probability events.

I'll keep watching, because there's always the chance with this type of interaction we could have a late-game hail mary of sorts.

At least this looks to be a winter of chances.  Can't ask for more than that.

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2 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

12z GFS has a Christmas Day snow storm, yay!   Lol.

You can call this "Fantasyland" all you want, but there is probably some validity to this. The longer range models have been hinting at a pattern change around Christmas time. Maybe Santa brings us this storm at the right time. Let's hope! :santa:

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6 hours ago, TeaysValleyWV said:

12z GFS has a Christmas Day snow storm, yay!   Lol.

 

3 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

You can call this "Fantasyland" all you want, but there is probably some validity to this. The longer range models have been hinting at a pattern change around Christmas time. Maybe Santa brings us this storm at the right time. Let's hope! :santa:

Unfortunately patience is the key again this winter. 

Although it’s basically been winter for about a month now, the cold/dry, warm/wet cycle is getting old pretty quick.  

So hopefully we get at least some advisory level snow soon. 

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On 12/11/2018 at 4:06 PM, MikeB_01 said:

You can call this "Fantasyland" all you want, but there is probably some validity to this. The longer range models have been hinting at a pattern change around Christmas time. Maybe Santa brings us this storm at the right time. Let's hope! :santa:

It continues to be there after several more runs...just in time for Santa's sleigh ride too.  Believe!

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We very rarely get snow storms all Winter let alone Christmas. Plus with all the traveling that I and others do I wouldn't want t a big one at that time. What I would like is cold air and snow showers and flurries in the air with some white on the ground. As of now the models are hinting at cold air at least but let's get the northwest flow going so we can get it. I'll take the big one in January and February. 

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11 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

Wow - Jeff V let go from KDKA.

Obviously, he was not kind to weenies and hobbyists, but the general public seemed to like him

I know some folks will never forgive him for 2/5/10 (let it go...lol), but overall he seemed pretty solid.

 

That cold air earlier in the week, would have provided a nice high end advisory/warning event this weekend. SMH

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14 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

I know some folks will never forgive him for 2/5/10 (let it go...lol), but overall he seemed pretty solid.

 

That cold air earlier in the week, would have provided a nice high end advisory/warning event this weekend. SMH

Yeah, he wasn't bad, just always down played events, which let's be honest, around here taking that approach will prove to be right more often than not. 

Can't imagine he was let go for accuracy. Maybe he didn't hype enough which then led to the next 10 stories with reporters standing in front of salt piles looking foolish lol

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On 12/17/2018 at 6:33 AM, MikeB_01 said:

A Christmas Torch... :sizzle::santa:

Screen Shot 2018-12-17 at 6.31.48 AM.png

Interesting contrast because there is lot of chatter today about a much below normal temp run developing at the end of this month extending into January for the eastern half of US.  Weatherbell says coldest extreme period will be Jan 15 to Feb 15th.   Washington Post has an article today about the "looming" Polar Vortex for January.

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Jeff V is saying he is going to continue to forecast on Twitter..is he even a fully degreed met?

https://www.post-gazette.com/ae/tv-radio/2018/12/17/Fired-meteorologist-Jeff-Verszyla-KDKA-weather-Pittsburgh/stories/201812170099

He was actually a fully degreed met. Mississippi State grad. Article talks about how one reason he was fired could be his skepticism of climate change.


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7 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:


https://www.post-gazette.com/ae/tv-radio/2018/12/17/Fired-meteorologist-Jeff-Verszyla-KDKA-weather-Pittsburgh/stories/201812170099

He was actually a fully degreed met. Mississippi State grad. Article talks about how one reason he was fired could be his skepticism of climate change.


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That would be a shame indeed. I think a healthy and respectful skepticism can be a constructive force in any science or any differing view point for that matter. The last thing you want is a group that all has the same base of belief because that can act as blinders to other ideas. You will undoubtedly miss something along the way.  I for one don't believe the planets climate would be a stable unwavering predictable system without any interaction from man. That said, I would be foolish to dismiss offhand that our actions have zero impact, especially on the size scale of our footprint. We may be accelerating a natural cycle, or maybe increasing the extremes of such cycle, or maybe tipping the scales towards some disaster but the climate would change without us. It has before and it will again. In any event, I'm all for the advance of cleaner energy, burning fossil fuels is dirty and reduces air quality, its a fact. Hopefully this doesn't spin up some bitter political debate lol.

Back to Jeff V, I don't think he deserved to be fired based on performance, sure he was wrong on occasion busted badly, but overall was fairly accurate. It does seem some agenda was at work, whether that was the climate change thing, trying to save money, etc who knows. I don't think he was in some sort of trouble that prompted the station to cut ties, if that were the case you'd think he would quietly fall from public view to avoid anything leaking out.

Anyways, it sucks the weather is so boring this is what we have to debate! I admit I know the Nino winters are usually late starters, but got caught up in some of the late Nov models that were showing a serviceable pattern for snow. Maybe we can luck into some snow before things flip to more favorable, we are getting to the time of year were imperfect setups can work for snow. Until then I'll keep reading about polar vortex splits, MJO, and El-nino.

 

 

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1 hour ago, dj3 said:

Chances the 3k Nam is on to something with this?

 

F62CC526-E181-4BA7-98BA-0D108CED1DF8.png

I don't usually buy into these backside snowmakers. Usually just not enough moisture to produce anything. However, it is interesting that the Euro has started to pick this up as well. 983 seems awfully low for the central pressure but again the Euro isn't too far off at 988. This is definitely something to keep watching.

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