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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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2 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

Ground getting white here from weak system moving through. Could get maybe an inch...meh.

In our neck of the woods an inch is 'yea' this time of year lol, waiting for Sunday's event!

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Sunday's event is the type of storm that Ohio usually gets their better snow storms from.  Obviously a less amped solution would have QPF issues to the north while an amped solution would have mixing issues south, but the general broad, moisture-laden WSW-ENE moving low pressure is a good look.  I'd lean closer to the Euro than the GFS as the strong temp gradient/good jet dynamics/good moisture in the warm sector support a deepening storm as it moves east...but, the shortwave is on the flat side so need to watch the polar vortex interaction for some suppression if the wave doesn't come out completely in one piece or if the PV is displaced even somewhat farther SE.  Euro has great ensemble support though. 

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CMH reported 1” last hour with 2” on the ground, which will push them to around 25” on the season.  If you’re not careful you’ll be into the 30s by Monday morning.  Average is 26-27” for the season. 

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14 minutes ago, OHweather said:

CMH reported 1” last hour with 2” on the ground, which will push them to around 25” on the season.  If you’re not careful you’ll be into the 30s by Monday morning.  Average is 26-27” for the season. 

Wow. Incredible how nickle & dimers add up! 

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1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

Wow. Incredible how nickle & dimers add up! 

November, January and February all had normal to above normal snow, even though it immediately melted each time it snowed. The fact that it’s been super wet and “cold enough” at times has allowed for it.  

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Push to around 25 inches? Not a chance. My parents have counted 19 inches now in their backyard and rejected that TT stuff as "snow".

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5 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Push to around 25 inches? Not a chance. My parents have counted 19 inches now in their backyard and rejected that TT stuff as "snow".

Didn’t realize we all lived in your parents backyard lmao. My man you just need to leave this forum 

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20 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Push to around 25 inches? Not a chance. My parents have counted 19 inches now in their backyard and rejected that TT stuff as "snow".

CMH hit 25” of snow on the season this evening.  DAY was already over that mark.  I’m not sure what they “rejected” as snow but if it fell from the sky as something solid and accumulated more than 0.1” it counts towards the total, per any current guidelines on how to measure snow.  Your contorted version of reality is once again wrong.  I’m not trying to “turd polish” because this winter has lacked a good prolonged deep winter period in Ohio, but it has snowed at slightly quicker than the climatological clip...actually after the awful start it’s been snowing at a pretty good clip since the second week of January to get everyone to normal. 

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Womp womp. Outside of any major shifts, the euro sits alone and even it is folding to the other models now showing only a marginal snow.. System looks to be south. Central Ohio may see 1 or 2 inches and parts of southern Ohio 3 to maybe 5" according to models now. See what 12z does before tossing in the towel, but it's becoming evident that a towel tossing is imminent lol.

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30 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Womp womp. Outside of any major shifts, the euro sits alone and even it is folding to the other models now showing only a marginal snow.. System looks to be south. Central Ohio may see 1 or 2 inches and parts of southern Ohio 3 to maybe 5" according to models now. See what 12z does before tossing in the towel, but it's becoming evident that a towel tossing is imminent lol.

It figures this thing will deliver about as much snow as we got last night - 2".

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12z nam, and 3k nam both 1-2" compared to last nights 0z of 3-6"

No reason to believe the GFS will change but we'll see. I'd guess this will be a big bowl of nothing in the end. Certainly doesnt look good if you thought this system would be something.

 

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Not sure sampling will help any. Or when it will take place. Doesn't look like the bleeding south will stop. Bermuda high must've buckled.

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It’s suppression from the lobe of the polar vortex.  It’s what would’ve stopped this from amping with the PNA/AO/NAO otherwise supporting more of a cutter.  I’m a little surprised this is the way it went if only because it potentially benifits I-95 from BOS-PHL in a winter where they’ve constantly gotten screwed. 

That said the models still show snow for all day Sunday except for perhaps the northernmost portion of Ohio.  North of roughly Route 30 it will be rather ho hum just 1-2” probably, but I’d be surprised if central Ohio didn’t end up under an advisory for 2-4”/3-5” with some warnings for like 4-7” in far southern/SE Ohio where they do still get into a slightly deeper moisture feed as the storm departs.  Sorry this couldn’t turn into anything better...the pieces were there, but the alignment of the PV ended up too suppressive.  That said, it is still an accumulating snow...and I still don’t trust this not to pull a little last second amped trend as it moves east into the Plains tomorrow, though no it won’t be a foot like some Euro runs tossed out. 

Edit: So I'm on the record here's my first attempt.  I think the low end will be met, we'll see how widespread the high end is.  With this being a light to moderate daytime snow in March, impacts kind of muted where you're not getting 4"+...so essentially, widespread snow, but also blegh.

 

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4 hours ago, OHweather said:

It’s suppression from the lobe of the polar vortex.  It’s what would’ve stopped this from amping with the PNA/AO/NAO otherwise supporting more of a cutter.  I’m a little surprised this is the way it went if only because it potentially benifits I-95 from BOS-PHL in a winter where they’ve constantly gotten screwed. 

That said the models still show snow for all day Sunday except for perhaps the northernmost portion of Ohio.  North of roughly Route 30 it will be rather ho hum just 1-2” probably, but I’d be surprised if central Ohio didn’t end up under an advisory for 2-4”/3-5” with some warnings for like 4-7” in far southern/SE Ohio where they do still get into a slightly deeper moisture feed as the storm departs.  Sorry this couldn’t turn into anything better...the pieces were there, but the alignment of the PV ended up too suppressive.  That said, it is still an accumulating snow...and I still don’t trust this not to pull a little last second amped trend as it moves east into the Plains tomorrow, though no it won’t be a foot like some Euro runs tossed out. 

Edit: So I'm on the record here's my first attempt.  I think the low end will be met, we'll see how widespread the high end is.  With this being a light to moderate daytime snow in March, impacts kind of muted where you're not getting 4"+...so essentially, widespread snow, but also blegh.

 

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Thanks man. Hey, what’s your thoughts on maybe another in the 8th-10th time frame? 

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50 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Thanks man. Hey, what’s your thoughts on maybe another in the 8th-10th time frame? 

Two separate waves have been signaled for that time period in the span of like 3 days, so I think there will be something to track.  The cold appears to be retreating a bit by then, so I have to think a more wound up storm that has ptype issues would be more likely with those waves...that said, at the least some front end snow is possible, we'll see if the cold can hang on and maybe allow for more (I have my doubts, but I've also been wrong before!)

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Two separate waves have been signaled for that time period in the span of like 3 days, so I think there will be something to track.  The cold appears to be retreating a bit by then, so I have to think a more wound up storm that has ptype issues would be more likely with those waves...that said, at the least some front end snow is possible, we'll see if the cold can hang on and maybe allow for more (I have my doubts, but I've also been wrong before!)

Ok, cool. Thanks!

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20 hours ago, OHweather said:

 

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Bravery right here. I'd think if someone gets 3" anywhere in Ohio will be lucky at this point. Looks like a general 1 to maybe 2 in spots... for now... still trending south. Fv3 is a miss altogether now with the exception of extreme southern Ohio. Crazy how poorly this trended. May wanna consider remaking your map, Jim.:yikes:

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16 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Bravery right here. I'd think if someone gets 3" anywhere in Ohio will be lucky at this point. Looks like a general 1 to maybe 2 in spots... for now... still trending south. Fv3 is a miss altogether now with the exception of extreme southern Ohio. Crazy how poorly this trended. May wanna consider remaking your map, Jim.:yikes:

I’m thinking Coating to 2” covers it for the state now.  Euro has been dethroned the last few weeks.  Been way off and beaten by the gfs on several systems. 

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30 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I’m thinking Coating to 2” covers it for the state now.  Euro has been dethroned the last few weeks.  Been way off and beaten by the gfs on several systems. 

Oh yea, it's been bad. It's consistently put out big systems only to fold later on. Not too sure what's going on with the euro. Never seen it so bad, but would say it's been one of the worst this year. ICON has had better accuracy lol

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