Let's Talk Winter!!

[vespasian70]

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

euro now has our coldest temps coming in only at around -3 or 4.   zzzzzzzzzzzz   what an absolute overhyped joke this is turning out to be, this may not even end up as cold as the period we had a week or so ago.

Good! I HATE frigid cold. Give me highs in the 20's and lows in the teens with some snow. I could care less about record low temps.

[JayPSU]

Wow, definitely some saltiness here.  As an employee of a local university, I wouldn’t be sad if our university was forced to close due to the extreme nature of the cold air and wind chills.  

[OHweather]

8 hours ago, buckeye said:

I can see both sides of the OH/jbcmh discussion.    But taking into account the venue in which the debate is taking place....I feel jbcmh has the winning point.   What I mean by that is OH is trying to tell a group of weather weenie enthusiasts that 'technically' they have nothing to complain about.  That's like telling a group of rabid OSU fans that they have no right to be disappointed by a 10 and 2 season.   It might be true that on paper we're doing fine and are close to climo.   Problem with that argument is the choir you're preaching to worships to a different god than climo.  No one who reads or participates in this forum is rooting for climo to be reached.  We all have day jobs and wouldn't waste our time posting and participating here, or staying up until 1am for a euro run, if we were just seeking to reach climo every year via nickles and dimes.  We're already very good at that.  

We are all ultimately in search of something 'memorable' to happen each winter.   Something that 10 years from now would make a top 10 list.   It really has been quite awhile since we had that.   My last truly memorable event was not a single event, but a stretch of weather that occurred in Feb of '10.   That was 9 years ago.  We have had a couple of decent storms since than, but nothing I can etch in granite as a singularly memorable event.   

With that in mind, this winter has been miserable.  Expectations were built up tremendously.  Most of us in the southern areas of the sub missed the single event for the sub in Nov and we were all shut out in December.   Than our usual nickel and dimes showed up in January followed by a storm that was surprisingly disappointing for what could, (if not should), have been, (OH even admitted so).   Now we sit on the cusp of a possible record breaking artic intrusion while being forced to stay inside and look out the window at frozen mud and crispy grass.   The so-called clipper that once looked like an arctic boundary snow storm, (on the medium range euro), morphed into a clipper that doesn't even make it south of Chicago before hanging a left into the lakes and missing the entire state of Ohio.   Now, as we find ourselves in the midst of what JB once referred to as the climax of this severe winter, (Jan 20 - Mid Feb), we already have a several day stretch of warm weather showing up right smack in the middle of it.   

So then what's next?  Who knows?  I believe nothing, no model, no forecasters, no indices.  I expect nothing for the rest of winter ...fending off disappointment and inviting only surprise.  

You certainly make valid points, and I should keep the venue in mind here.  My point wasn't that there's technically "nothing" to complain about, but I was legitimately surprised by the tone in here for the reasons I mentioned.  I agree there hasn't been much memorable winter weather in central/southern Ohio lately (13-14 and 14-15 were good winters at least) and honestly climo seems like a small win, so I can understand general frustration.  The timing just seemed odd to me, though given how much billing this winter received coming in I think it just set everyone up for disappointment. 

The ensembles already look a lot less torchy in early Feb with the weenie range GFS occasionally showing some nice W-E moving systems now, and it might even snow some later this week a little (plus maybe some arctic front snow squalls on Wednesday)...not that I'm excited for any particular period yet, but I stand by my point at least that there's more winter to come, it has snowed at least a "fair" amount lately (Jan 12-13 was arguably memorable for parts of southern OH, Jan 19th sucked in its own way but was decent in a lot of the state, though the rain getting really far north tainted everyone's opinion on it), and it is still not "late."  

I can respect that everybody is going for different things and if you want a long, spectacular winter that ship is sailing on this one.  But in terms of a snowy stretch, maybe a decent storm or two, I think there's plenty of time/potential for something like that even if it isn't making any record books.  

[dilly84]

Well just turned to the backside snow. Looks to last about 10 minutes lmao. Some of my snow cover held on today thanks to trees and shade. Was hoping for a quick quarter inch at least to cover the ground but that looks unlikely now too.

Edit: back yard snow cover is in fact, front yard is spotty. Snowed moderately for about 10 minutes but not enough to cover the bare spots. Hoping the little bit of snow on backside of radar touches for half hour to cover the bare.

[chuckster2012]

Nothing left down here..

[buckeye]

Don't ever recall a winter weather advisory where no precip was expected.  Why wouldn't a wind chill warning cover things?

[vespasian70]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Don't ever recall a winter weather advisory where no precip was expected.  Why wouldn't a wind chill warning cover things?

Heck, ILN might as well leave it up until Friday, perhaps they can roll the late week clipper into it. Lol

[dilly84]

38 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Don't ever recall a winter weather advisory where no precip was expected.  Why wouldn't a wind chill warning cover things?

Weird that radar shows nothing over me and its snowing hard out

[vespasian70]

26 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Weird that radar shows nothing over me and its snowing hard out

Same here. Went to run a few errands and came out of Kroger to a hard snow squall, nothing on radar.

ILN and CLE are too far away to accurately pick up little events like this for Newark. I think we're both in a radar no man's land. Before my time there was a NWS radar in CMH, 90's budget cuts got rid of it.

[dilly84]

31 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Same here. Went to run a few errands and came out of Kroger to a hard snow squall, nothing on radar.

ILN and CLE are too far away to accurately pick up little events like this for Newark. I think we're both in a radar no man's land. Before my time there was a NWS radar in CMH, 90's budget cuts got rid of it.

Makes sense. Didnt last long but got the ground white.

[buckeye]

Still holding out hope for a decent squall when the Arctic front moves thru tonight.  Probably something the models aren't going to pick up on.

[vespasian70]

6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Still holding out hope for a decent squall when the Arctic front moves thru tonight.  Probably something the models aren't going to pick up on.

And then a minor clipper before the warm-up. *sigh*

[NoDoppler4TnySandz]

These really cold patterns have a tendency to produce surprises from time to time-- don't need a lot of qpf to squeeze out something noticeable....  I am more curious on the Thursday PM/Night chances....even ILN is referencing a couple of inches for my local forecast-- which is not typically characteristic 24+hours out.... 

[buckeye]

4 minutes ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said:

These really cold patterns have a tendency to produce surprises from time to time-- don't need a lot of qpf to squeeze out something noticeable....  I am more curious on the Thursday PM/Night chances....even ILN is referencing a couple of inches for my local forecast-- which is not typically characteristic 24+hours out.... 

Thursday night/friday is a warm air advection set up.   Those are another type of set up that can often lead to surprises.

[pondo1000]

Nice squall right now

#2 now

[dilly84]

Just taken.

[dilly84]

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

Thursday night/friday is a warm air advection set up.   Those are another type of set up that can often lead to surprises.

I'm watching 8-9 days out around the 7th. While I get this setup usually sucks for us, realistically(and you'll agree), they are the best chance for big snows of 8"+

[jbcmh81]

So here's what I think the actual temperatures will be the next few days for Columbus... tonight with the wind and zero snow cover, temps won't fall much below 0 at all.  In fact, I could see them staying above 0.  So I'm saying -1 to +4, tomorrow's high around +6 to +10, tomorrow night maybe 0 to -4 at worst.  Wind chills will be bad, but on par with similar events in previous outbreaks of recent years.  So yes, I'm generally going a little warmer than forecast.  Oh, and probably no significant squalls with the arctic front.  Maybe continued flurries off and on.

[buckeye]

28 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

So here's what I think the actual temperatures will be the next few days for Columbus... tonight with the wind and zero snow cover, temps won't fall much below 0 at all.  In fact, I could see them staying above 0.  So I'm saying -1 to +4, tomorrow's high around +6 to +10, tomorrow night maybe 0 to -4 at worst.  Wind chills will be bad, but on par with similar events in previous outbreaks of recent years.  So yes, I'm generally going a little warmer than forecast.  Oh, and probably no significant squalls with the arctic front.  Maybe continued flurries off and on.

You won't see me arguing against the duller version of outcomes this winter.   Sounds good.

[JayPSU]

28 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

So here's what I think the actual temperatures will be the next few days for Columbus... tonight with the wind and zero snow cover, temps won't fall much below 0 at all.  In fact, I could see them staying above 0.  So I'm saying -1 to +4, tomorrow's high around +6 to +10, tomorrow night maybe 0 to -4 at worst.  Wind chills will be bad, but on par with similar events in previous outbreaks of recent years.  So yes, I'm generally going a little warmer than forecast.  Oh, and probably no significant squalls with the arctic front.  Maybe continued flurries off and on.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I haven't seen one model show what you're suggesting.  I understand being frustrated, just don't let it cloud your judgement.

[pondo1000]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

You won't see me arguing against the duller version of outcomes this winter.   Sounds good.

You two should get together for drinks! LMAO! 

[buckeye]

44 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

I'm watching 8-9 days out around the 7th. While I get this setup usually sucks for us, realistically(and you'll agree), they are the best chance for big snows of 8"+

So we have 2 cutters in front of the day 9 event.  It is supposed to go south of us as the baroclinic boundary is pulled further south by the preceding 2 cutters.    Im not holding my breath. Either we'll be licked by the wtod or the baroclinic boundary will be pulled further south and KY will get a snowstorm while we smoke cirrus.

[pondo1000]

Just now, buckeye said:

So we have 2 cutters in front of the day 9 event.  It is supposed to go south of us as the baroclinic boundary is pulled further south by the preceding 2 cutters.    Im not holding my breath. Either we'll be licked by the wtod or the baroclinic boundary will be pulled further south and KY will get a snowstorm while we smoke cirrus.

On a roll!

[buckeye]

2 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

You two should get together for drinks! LMAO! 

Meh,,everything that can happen to mute or ruin a threat has happened this winter.  Why expect that to change now.

[buckeye]

Just now, pondo1000 said:

On a roll!

....screw this I'm moving to Philly....a REAL snow town! 

[pondo1000]

Just now, buckeye said:

Meh,,everything that can happen to mute or ruin a threat has happened this winter.  Why expect that to change now.

LMAO. I know. Our luck has to change at some point......doesn’t it? Meh, you’re right. Who am I kidding?

[pondo1000]

Just now, buckeye said:

....screw this I'm moving to Philly....a REAL snow town! 

Woooo!! Not so far this year, but you know the ending to this story. True -NAO shows up & all gets surpressed to the coast & they get slammed! 

[buckeye]

2 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Woooo!! Not so far this year, but you know the ending to this story. True -NAO shows up & all gets surpressed to the coast & they get slammed! 

Yup, definitely could see that.

[pondo1000]

14 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Yup, definitely could see that.

Boy I hope not!

[jbcmh81]

1 hour ago, JayPSU said:

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I haven't seen one model show what you're suggesting.  I understand being frustrated, just don't let it cloud your judgement.

The afternoon zones were actually warmed up a bit, so I'm really pretty close on the lows.  The high on Wednesday is based off the midnight high, which again, is the only thing that's going into the records. Sure the afternoon may be a little colder than that, but without any snow cover, it's hard to imagine that things will end up colder than any of these numbers, even with the very low 850s.