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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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5 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

Snow moving into my area rn. Doesn't look too heavy. Maybe an inch if I'm lucky. Headed for Ohio.

 

5 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

Snow moving into my area rn. Doesn't look too heavy. Maybe an inch if I'm lucky. Headed for Ohio.

Didn't amount to much. Most returns were aloft, apparently..

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A little skip of snow coming through this morning, a nice coating so far. Looks like we'll get a better shot of snow tonight,  perhaps more than the Mon/Tue  system. 

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4 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

A little skip of snow coming through this morning, a nice coating so far. Looks like we'll get a better shot of snow tonight,  perhaps more than the Mon/Tue  system. 

Yea, speaking of mon/Tues,

euro has virtually little to no precip for us with the clipper passing north and the front speeding by.   The cold shot is also somewhat muted and shortened.   

This winter now has that imminent feeling of failure from here on out no matter what fantasies the models might conjure up in the mid to long range.  

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

 

Yea, speaking of mon/Tues,

euro has virtually little to no precip for us with the clipper passing north and the front speeding by.   The cold shot is also somewhat muted and shortened.   

This winter now has that imminent feeling of failure from here on out no matter what fantasies the models might conjure up in the mid to long range.  

 

 

 

 

It's to a point where I'll believe it when I see it.

Here's hoping for a couple of dusty inches tonight, it may be our best shot before the Arctic front blows through.

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Wow, you know this is one [email protected]# of a winter when we're supposed to have 1 or 2 inches of snow (and the 850 0z well south of the Ohio river) and the 2M temps STILL rise into the mid 30s and it rains in the middle of the night! oh well, its OHIO!

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14 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Wow, you know this is one [email protected]# of a winter when we're supposed to have 1 or 2 inches of snow (and the 850 0z well south of the Ohio river) and the 2M temps STILL rise into the mid 30s and it rains in the middle of the night! oh well, its OHIO!

Yeah, the rain made it all the way up here to Lake Erie.  That's the last thing I was expecting to see.  Farthest north I saw rain on any model was about the Ohio River.  The WTOD strikes again.

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Wow... radar look good to our west last night.. even got a few snowflakes and then the WTOD took over... we can't even get a clipper to perform here... bring on spring!!

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What am I missing? Isn’t most of central/southern Ohio near normal snowfall wise (some a little above, some a little below) with most of that falling in the last two weeks?  The pattern also isn’t exactly warm coming up and it’s not even February 1 yet.  It’s like reading a funeral in here because a surface low over toledo managed to bring sprinkles (it looks like the vast majority of your precip fell as snow with temps at or below feeezing north of Cincinnati and that maybe it briefly sprinkled).  This wasn’t going to be more than an inch or so of snow anyways. 

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31 minutes ago, OHweather said:

What am I missing? Isn’t most of central/southern Ohio near normal snowfall wise (some a little above, some a little below) with most of that falling in the last two weeks?  The pattern also isn’t exactly warm coming up and it’s not even February 1 yet.  It’s like reading a funeral in here because a surface low over toledo managed to bring sprinkles (it looks like the vast majority of your precip fell as snow with temps at or below feeezing north of Cincinnati and that maybe it briefly sprinkled).  This wasn’t going to be more than an inch or so of snow anyways. 

I think more than anything else it was last weekend that drained a lot us. Sure, the backend snow of 4"-5" was neat, but watching it rain all day prior to that showed us the missed potential. And last night ILN had CMH and KVTA for 1"-2", ended up a non event - a sloppy coating with marginal temps.

Next up, a decent clipper tracking far to our north. The 06z NAM was trying to develop a low along the Arctic front ... we'll see, lately our luck isn't the greatest.

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27 minutes ago, OHweather said:

What am I missing? Isn’t most of central/southern Ohio near normal snowfall wise (some a little above, some a little below) with most of that falling in the last two weeks?  The pattern also isn’t exactly warm coming up and it’s not even February 1 yet.  It’s like reading a funeral in here because a surface low over toledo managed to bring sprinkles (it looks like the vast majority of your precip fell as snow with temps at or below feeezing north of Cincinnati and that maybe it briefly sprinkled).  This wasn’t going to be more than an inch or so of snow anyways. 

Well here in Newark we have had a 3 inch snow and a 4 inch snow... the 4 inches was supposed to be a foot...we have had a few 1/2 inch to an inch snows. ..so kind of a disappointment so far!

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I get that it hasn’t been a banner winter for many in Ohio and last weekend was unfortunate, but considering climo and how bad it was until two weeks ago...and how much time is left...it’s way too early to root on Spring IMO.  It would be another thing if it was a month or month and a half later.  

I wouldn’t get excited for too much along the arctic front personally, if something can spin up ahead of that cold it’d be nice but seems like a long shot.  But there’s still time after this week.  The thing about a back loaded winter nowadays is everyone wants to cancel it before it gets a chance to be backloaded.  It’s even worse in the Philly-NYC-Boston corridor where they’ve largely missed out the last two weeks (and Boston has been hilariously futile so far). 

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53 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I get that it hasn’t been a banner winter for many in Ohio and last weekend was unfortunate, but considering climo and how bad it was until two weeks ago...and how much time is left...it’s way too early to root on Spring IMO.  It would be another thing if it was a month or month and a half later.  

I wouldn’t get excited for too much along the arctic front personally, if something can spin up ahead of that cold it’d be nice but seems like a long shot.  But there’s still time after this week.  The thing about a back loaded winter nowadays is everyone wants to cancel it before it gets a chance to be backloaded.  It’s even worse in the Philly-NYC-Boston corridor where they’ve largely missed out the last two weeks (and Boston has been hilariously futile so far). 

Ut oh, I  have a business trip to Boston the week of the 11th, guess when their blizzard of '19 will hit!

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2 hours ago, Steve said:

Wow... radar look good to our west last night.. even got a few snowflakes and then the WTOD took over... we can't even get a clipper to perform here... bring on spring!!

Hmm I got about 2.5-3" of powdery snow. Woke up to a winter wonderland. Radar didnt make sense either though, it showed light snow over me but it was snowing relatively hard and windy.

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I get that it hasn’t been a banner winter for many in Ohio and last weekend was unfortunate, but considering climo and how bad it was until two weeks ago...and how much time is left...it’s way too early to root on Spring IMO.  It would be another thing if it was a month or month and a half later.  

I wouldn’t get excited for too much along the arctic front personally, if something can spin up ahead of that cold it’d be nice but seems like a long shot.  But there’s still time after this week.  The thing about a back loaded winter nowadays is everyone wants to cancel it before it gets a chance to be backloaded.  It’s even worse in the Philly-NYC-Boston corridor where they’ve largely missed out the last two weeks (and Boston has been hilariously futile so far). 

I think it’s because people’s expectations were so high this year that they expected winter to be better. 

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2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Hmm I got about 2.5-3" of powdery snow.

Well... not here..:axe:

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As for the Monday system I wrote it off 2 or 3 days ago I think I posted I was waving it off. The writing was on the wall early with it. No way you was getting a 200 mile shift south and the odds of it spinning something up on the backside outside of a half inch or so was dreamland anyways. It's not even February yet. Let's hold off. 2 of my all time favorite storms came in February and March. 

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When was the last time central Ohio got a real snowstorm (6+ inches)? This is my 4th winter in cbus, and I don't think I've had more than 4 inches imby. 

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14 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

When was the last time central Ohio got a real snowstorm (6+ inches)? This is my 4th winter in cbus, and I don't think I've had more than 4 inches imby. 

Was close to 6" with last weekend's storm.

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21 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

When was the last time central Ohio got a real snowstorm (6+ inches)? This is my 4th winter in cbus, and I don't think I've had more than 4 inches imby. 

It has been at least 4 yrs I believe... I could be wrong..

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Models have been really bad this year in the medium and short range.   That includes the euro.   We didn't really fail last weekend but it was once again one of those 'near misses' where literally a degree or two in the mid levels would have made the difference between a snow event vs. something much more memorable.   We've also had to endure outstanding storm tracks where the only ingredient missing was enough cold air.    Then we have one of the coldest air masses in several years dropping in and the clipper that preceeds it makes a quick hook and rotation to our nw leaving us with prefrontal rain to nothing.   We failed in 3 ways on that one situation, (clipper track, anafront snow, and a wave on the front).    

It looks like our next snow chance could be a squall that could develop on the leading edge of the coldest incoming air on Wednesday.  It's not really showing up on the models yet, but I've seen that happen in the past.  After that a return flow on the departing cold yields some waa snows according to some of the models, (friday timeframe).   Then we rain and wait for our next shot.

So far this has been a forgettable winter*...nothing that will stick in my mind in future years.   Let's see what happens with this incoming coldshot.

 

* laughs outloud at all the 'winter of yore' calls....       winter of 'bore'

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GFS hinting at a slight blow-torch one week out. Well, at least for the far southwest Ohio Valley. Temps deep into the 60’s in southwest KY... wow. The cold just never wants to lock in this winter.

921B451D-C6D4-4AE3-9185-53339F425651.png

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GFS hinting at a slight blow-torch one week out. Well, at least for the far southwest Ohio Valley. Temps deep into the 60’s in southwest KY... wow. The cold just never wants to lock in this winter.
921B451D-C6D4-4AE3-9185-53339F425651.thumb.png.2b5ff339041baec8335998c5c36238c8.png
This will verify. Cold and snow, not so much.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

Models have been really bad this year in the medium and short range.   That includes the euro.   We didn't really fail last weekend but it was once again one of those 'near misses' where literally a degree or two in the mid levels would have made the difference between a snow event vs. something much more memorable.   We've also had to endure outstanding storm tracks where the only ingredient missing was enough cold air.    Then we have one of the coldest air masses in several years dropping in and the clipper that preceeds it makes a quick hook and rotation to our nw leaving us with prefrontal rain to nothing.   We failed in 3 ways on that one situation, (clipper track, anafront snow, and a wave on the front).    

It looks like our next snow chance could be a squall that could develop on the leading edge of the coldest incoming air on Wednesday.  It's not really showing up on the models yet, but I've seen that happen in the past.  After that a return flow on the departing cold yields some waa snows according to some of the models, (friday timeframe).   Then we rain and wait for our next shot.

So far this has been a forgettable winter*...nothing that will stick in my mind in future years.   Let's see what happens with this incoming coldshot.

 

* laughs outloud at all the 'winter of yore' calls....       winter of 'bore'

To me, the “success” of this winter rides soley on what lies ahead. A break of about a week is ok if it means more snow chances afterwards. Longer than that, and I could care less what happens. Snow in late February or March is ok, but I’d rather a front loaded winter all day long versus winter until April. 

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1 minute ago, pondo1000 said:

To me, the “success” of this winter rides soley on what lies ahead. A break of about a week is ok if it means more snow chances afterwards. Longer than that, and I could care less what happens. Snow in late February or March is ok, but I’d rather a front loaded winter all day long versus winter until April. 

I'm with ya.  HATE back loaded winters.  Last March and April were nightmare scenarios.   

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Last Friday, the euro depicted CMH receiving 27 inches of snow by tomorrow, (Monday),  with temps in the - teens as well.     The failure and constant stepping back of any and all winter threats has been brutal this season.   

The euro now has us getting a tenth of an inch of snow over the next ten days, (that not qpf, it's snowfall).   That might be the worst 10 day euro snowfall run for us since December.   

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5 hours ago, OHweather said:

What am I missing? Isn’t most of central/southern Ohio near normal snowfall wise (some a little above, some a little below) with most of that falling in the last two weeks?  The pattern also isn’t exactly warm coming up and it’s not even February 1 yet.  It’s like reading a funeral in here because a surface low over toledo managed to bring sprinkles (it looks like the vast majority of your precip fell as snow with temps at or below feeezing north of Cincinnati and that maybe it briefly sprinkled).  This wasn’t going to be more than an inch or so of snow anyways. 

Right, the rain wasn't that big a deal.  Temps were around 33 and I think it only rained for maybe 45 minutes.  I was just shocked that we saw any rain this far north.  All the models I looked at kept any above freezing temps well south of I-70.

Sure, it was a fairly minor event but Detroit picked up close to 4" out of it and as tough as 4" snowfalls are to come by down here in Ohio, it's pretty disappointing.  Especially when up until about 12Z yesterday that snow was supposed to fall over Ohio.  Really annoying to see systems go out of their way to avoid Ohio.

 

 

 

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