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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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9 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Alright Buckeyes/ Hoosiers and those close by....after five days of inactivity in this forum....time to wake up and smell the snow again.....digital snow that is:

 fv3p_asnow_us_31.png

Meanwhile, the GFS has maybe an inch in the next 10 days.  The main difference is a storm showing up for the 12-14th.  The GFS takes the main low into northern Michigan while the FV3 has it in north central North Carolina.  Only a small difference. :lightning: I guess the bright side is that both at least have some kind of storm. 

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44 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Alright Buckeyes/ Hoosiers and those close by....after five days of inactivity in this forum....time to wake up and smell the snow again.....digital snow that is:

 fv3p_asnow_us_31.png

Mods are all over the place days 4 -7. They can't even agree on what day has a storm much less what the track and strength is.   I was surprised,to see the euro go warmer and more in the cutter direction since, it's the quickest to get the mjo into 8.   

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39 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

I doubt it. The general RNA pattern and blocking alignment molds how the MJO responds. So it goes into phase 8? What we are seeing is weakness of MJO theory. Much like the theory that low solar minimum means -NAO has been crushed as well.

Hate to agree w/ you, but the MJO is not driving the train this winter. 

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Have to disagree that the MJO hasn’t mattered this winter.  There have been two relatively quick passes through the “cold phases” of the MJO in the last 3 months...one from the last few days of Nov and through the first week of Dec, and another between Jan 5-12.  Both were accompanied by cold during or shortly after.  Meanwhile, we’ve had two slower and higher amplitude passes through the “warm phases”...one mid Dec through the first few days of Jan, and then another mid Jan through now.   We’ve (not uncoincidentally) seen occasional warm shots in both periods.  Strong phase 4-6 MJO is not what one would expect in a Modoki El Niño and likely helps explain the I-95 fail so far.  If we get a slow and fairly strong phase 8-1-2 pass over the next few weeks it will shake up the pattern, and would be easily a more favorable tropical forcing look than we’ve had the majority of the winter.  

Whether that results in legit snow for Ohio next week I’m not sure on (suspect it ends up being a modest event Sunday then maybe some mixed crap Tuesday) but it would at least keep the door open for another few weeks.  The subtropical jet looks absolutely super charged later Feb and early March so if we can settle into a relatively cold pattern there will be chances. 

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36 minutes ago, wishforsnow said:

Snowing very heavy here in Hancock. I can't hardly see the house down the street from me. Luckily, I went in earlier to work so I could get the hell out of there before the storm hit. Every nut and their uncle is in town for Tech winter carnival so there is a lot more traffic and more people to get me in a jam. 

Hancock where?

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8 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

February looking to go up in flames. Such a disappointment. Can’t wait for a miserable March. Why do -NAO always seem to pop when it doesn’t matter? 

yea just horrible.    Low pressure cuts for Michigan,   than high pressure follows,  than low pressure attacks the departing high and heads to Michigan again.... wash, rinse, repeat.

Just bring me a torch....Feb, March 2012 sounds awesome right now.  

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17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

yea just horrible.    Low pressure cuts for Michigan,   than high pressure follows,  than low pressure attacks the departing high and heads to Michigan again.... wash, rinse, repeat.

Just bring me a torch....Feb, March 2012 sounds awesome right now.  

This will go down as one of the epic fails in winter outlook forecasts for sure for many.

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41 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

This will go down as one of the epic fails in winter outlook forecasts for sure for many.

:facepalm: gfs has 4 cutters over the next 2 weeks.   That brings us to Feb 24th.   Yes, this may be the worst collective winter forecasting failure that I can recall. 

It's like JB became a virus and it went epidemic in the meterology world.   The only thing he has going for him is that this time he's not alone in failure.  Don S., DT, HM, and a plethra of knowlegable mets on this site all crashed and burned.   Per usual JB refuses to call it what it is and tries to piece together some kind of claim that his forecast was on target.  It's reminiscent of his infamous "I nailed the pattern at 500mb", excuse.    It's like watching someone try to build a tower out of jello while they convince you to keep watching just a little bit longer because it's almost there.   

He had Jan 20th thru Feb 15th as the pinnacle of winter's brutality, of course that was after the first half of January failed.  When it became apparent that the PV visit was only going to be a glancing blow and mostly to our friends from Chicago on north, he immediately claimed that a rebound to warm for a few days was perfectly normal and expected, (even though he never said that beforehand).   Now he has Feb 15th thru March 15th as his new target period for epic winter.   That is now crumbling apart and frankly at this point I find it humorous...   

So why do you read him Buckeye?   Because he's a hypster which leads to one of two outcomes.  Either he's right and we snow....or he's wrong and turns into the clown building a tower out of jello.   Either way it's entertainment :devilsmiley:

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9 minutes ago, buckeye said:

:facepalm: gfs has 4 cutters over the next 2 weeks.   That brings us to Feb 24th.   Yes, this may be the worst collective winter forecasting failure that I can recall. 

It's like JB became a virus and it went epidemic in the meterology world.   The only thing he has going for him is that this time he's not alone in failure.  Don S., DT, HM, and a plethra of knowlegable mets on this site all crashed and burned.   Per usual JB refuses to call it what it is and tries to piece together some kind of claim that his forecast was on target.  It's reminiscent of his infamous "I nailed the pattern at 500mb", excuse.    It's like watching someone try to build a tower out of jello while they convince you to keep watching just a little bit longer because it's almost there.   

He had Jan 20th thru Feb 15th as the pinnacle of winter's brutality, of course that was after the first half of January failed.  When it became apparent that the PV visit was only going to be a glancing blow and mostly to our friends from Chicago on north, he immediately claimed that a rebound to warm for a few days was perfectly normal and expected, (even though he never said that beforehand).   Now he has Feb 15th thru March 15th as his new target period for epic winter.   That is now crumbling apart and frankly at this point I find it humorous...   

So why do you read him Buckeye?   Because he's a hypster which leads to one of two outcomes.  Either he's right and we snow....or he's wrong and turns into the clown building a tower out of jello.   Either way it's entertainment :devilsmiley:

It is humurous and very entertaining. This one stings though b/c of so many calling for a great winter like you said.  

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45 minutes ago, buckeye said:

:facepalm: gfs has 4 cutters over the next 2 weeks.   That brings us to Feb 24th.   Yes, this may be the worst collective winter forecasting failure that I can recall. 

It's like JB became a virus and it went epidemic in the meterology world.   The only thing he has going for him is that this time he's not alone in failure.  Don S., DT, HM, and a plethra of knowlegable mets on this site all crashed and burned.   Per usual JB refuses to call it what it is and tries to piece together some kind of claim that his forecast was on target.  It's reminiscent of his infamous "I nailed the pattern at 500mb", excuse.    It's like watching someone try to build a tower out of jello while they convince you to keep watching just a little bit longer because it's almost there.   

He had Jan 20th thru Feb 15th as the pinnacle of winter's brutality, of course that was after the first half of January failed.  When it became apparent that the PV visit was only going to be a glancing blow and mostly to our friends from Chicago on north, he immediately claimed that a rebound to warm for a few days was perfectly normal and expected, (even though he never said that beforehand).   Now he has Feb 15th thru March 15th as his new target period for epic winter.   That is now crumbling apart and frankly at this point I find it humorous...   

So why do you read him Buckeye?   Because he's a hypster which leads to one of two outcomes.  Either he's right and we snow....or he's wrong and turns into the clown building a tower out of jello.   Either way it's entertainment :devilsmiley:

I haven't followed JB as closely as others until this Winter. He's an amazing BS artist that has an excuse for everything. Its so bad he is now putting out caveats in his tweets. Surprised his credibility is ruined with his clients... unless he tells his clients one thing (reality), and twitter followers something different (what they want to hear).

"Interesting, The GFS next 10 days is punishing the very areas that have missed the bulk of winters snow wrath this year, Here is what is interesting, Pattern looks like Feb 1994 and this happened, ON the other hand its the GFS and eye candy is cheap But at least its pretty"

 
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I have followed weather all my life, even as a kid, and winter and snow have been one of my top passions.

I will hit 70 later this year and have discovered at least one immutable truth. Anticipating snow season and your favorite baseball team's season have one thing in common....a lot of hope...followed by mostly heartbreak!

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4 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

2-4?

yep?  around 1" late tmar, 1-3 more Sunday night?

You can do the math if you like:

OHZ062-101000-
Greene-
Including the cities of Beavercreek, Fairborn, and Xenia
619 PM EST Sat Feb 9 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows 15 to 20. East winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow in the morning,
then snow and freezing rain in the afternoon. Snow accumulation
around an inch. A trace of ice accumulation. Highs in the mid
30s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
100 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow, rain and freezing rain likely in the
evening, then freezing rain and snow likely after midnight. Total
snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Ice accumulation of
up to a tenth of an inch. Warmer with lows around 30. South winds
around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 

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