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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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2 hours ago, dilly84 said:

Can anyone confirm. A guy arguing with me says it was this cold last winter. 

 

2 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

Never got this cold last winter. 

We did. At least here in the city. 1/2 and 1/3 last year were -3 and -4. So far today we’re -4 and that was at noon. It’s actually risen 5 degrees since. As jb mentioned, we might have trouble dropping much to reach the -7/-8 forecasted here in the city. Haven’t been able to check local obs or any upper air soundings to make a true forecast. 

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5 minutes ago, osubrett2 said:

 

We did. At least here in the city. 1/2 and 1/3 last year were -3 and -4. So far today we’re -4 and that was at noon. It’s actually risen 5 degrees since. As jb mentioned, we might have trouble dropping much to reach the -7/-8 forecasted here in the city. Haven’t been able to check local obs or any upper air soundings to make a true forecast. 

What about wind chills?

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Forecast sounding for tomorrow morning suggest a brief period with a robust and very deep DGZ (~90% RH, marginal omega values, GFS looks almost identical but more saturation).  20:1 seems reasonable but I wouldn't rule out somewhere seeing as high as 30:1.  I can definitely see this clipper surprising some people Friday morning. 

2019013106_NAM_027_39.93,-83.02_winter_ml (1).png

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33 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Forecast sounding for tomorrow morning suggest a brief period with a robust and very deep DGZ (~90% RH, marginal omega values, GFS looks almost identical but more saturation).  20:1 seems reasonable but I wouldn't rule out somewhere seeing as high as 30:1.  I can definitely see this clipper surprising some people Friday morning. 

2019013106_NAM_027_39.93,-83.02_winter_ml (1).png

That's what I was just looking at. Didnt read the forum before posting lol. I was thinking the same. I'd guess 20:1 average but at 9° would be very easy to get higher ratios.

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Good chance this little clipper will be CMH's biggest storm "officially". Not hard to top as the airport reported 4.0" for the 1/12 storm and 3.6" with the 1/19-1/20 "bust". Ratios will be on the upper end, as mentioned before, with the deep cold air and I-70 looks to be in the best position. I don't think this has been really mentioned much with all the talk around the cold, so likely many people will be surprised tomorrow morning.

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Thoughts about the clipper,

- i-70 is bullseyed by most models wrt best snow

- snow will be falling with very cold air and surface temps, which could open the door for a fluffy over-performer.  On the flip side, such cold temps could end up turning this into a pixie blizzard too, which would hurt accums.

- We'll have a nice 24-36 hr winter wonderland before the torch comes a knock'n.  

- I guess I'll take the grateful approach on this one.  Assuming it doesn't find a way to fail, it's a snow event, which is why we're all here.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Thoughts about the clipper,

- i-70 is bullseyed by most models wrt best snow

- snow will be falling with very cold air and surface temps, which could open the door for a fluffy over-performer.  On the flip side, such cold temps could end up turning this into a pixie blizzard too, which would hurt accums.

- We'll have a nice 24-36 hr winter wonderland before the torch comes a knock'n.  

- I guess I'll take the grateful approach on this one.  Assuming it doesn't find a way to fail, it's a snow event, which is why we're all here.

 

 

Good cop is back! LOL

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4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

...just sucks that it's bringing in a torch vs a cold wave.....but I would be the walking definition of ingrate if I poo-poo'd this one.

Remember, 

“Never trust a warm up that begins with snow.” 

LOL. It does look like a short lived torch so hopeful we’ll have some more snow chances mid to late February. 

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

- We'll have a nice 24-36 hr winter wonderland before the torch comes a knock'n.

 

 

This is the part that sucks.  We'll get a solid 3-5" of beautiful powdery snow, and then most of it will be gone by the end of the day Saturday and then the rest by Sunday.  I hate very short term snow.

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1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I guess I am the only one looking forward to the warmer weather.

Don't get many minus 20/30 wind chills in GA? This is the other side of winter around here.  IMO 1/14 was worse.  Not quite as cold but it set in for a couple weeks without a warm up.  That was my first real taste of the brutal cold after moving up from SC and it hurt!  OTOH you should be used to this clipper coming, a quick 3-6 inches followed by 50-60 and possible thunderstorms lol.

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

Thoughts about the clipper,

- i-70 is bullseyed by most models wrt best snow

- snow will be falling with very cold air and surface temps, which could open the door for a fluffy over-performer.  On the flip side, such cold temps could end up turning this into a pixie blizzard too, which would hurt accums.

- We'll have a nice 24-36 hr winter wonderland before the torch comes a knock'n.  

- I guess I'll take the grateful approach on this one.  Assuming it doesn't find a way to fail, it's a snow event, which is why we're all here.

 

 

Hehe.... he said grateful.....

Related image

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42 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

This is the part that sucks.  We'll get a solid 3-5" of beautiful powdery snow, and then most of it will be gone by the end of the day Saturday and then the rest by Sunday.  I hate very short term snow.

One of the reason I like an early spring and loathe a winter that refuses to completely give up....like last year.   I love snow on snow....it's so rare though.   Nothing like tracking the next event while you're in the midst of a warning level event.    It seems like the big dogs tend to wash away within a few days.   

March'08 was the unicorn exception.   Not only was it the largest snowfall in cmh history, it actually had better and longer staying power than most of our mid winter events.

Speaking of March '08....   for old time sakes.   I took this pic driving around during that storm in Westerville.    sigh

post-622-0-88938700-1331002141.jpg

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46 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Don't get many minus 20/30 wind chills in GA? This is the other side of winter around here.  IMO 1/14 was worse.  Not quite as cold but it set in for a couple weeks without a warm up.  That was my first real taste of the brutal cold after moving up from SC and it hurt!  OTOH you should be used to this clipper coming, a quick 3-6 inches followed by 50-60 and possible thunderstorms lol.

Snow followed by warmth is right up my alley. I feel like im in GA again. Honestly I prefer snow followed by warmth. The best of both worlds. Now i have 2 things to look forward to :)

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24 minutes ago, buckeye said:

One of the reason I like an early spring and loathe a winter that refuses to completely give up....like last year.   I love snow on snow....it's so rare though.   Nothing like tracking the next event while you're in the midst of a warning level event.    It seems like the big dogs tend to wash away within a few days.   

March'08 was the unicorn exception.   Not only was it the largest snowfall in cmh history, it actually had better and longer staying power than most of our mid winter events.

Speaking of March '08....   for old time sakes.   I took this pic driving around during that storm in Westerville.    sigh

post-622-0-88938700-1331002141.jpg

That's rip city right there-- and the photo never does it justice. Looks like 500-750 ft visibility --- ??? Coming down there...

 

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41 minutes ago, buckeye said:

One of the reason I like an early spring and loathe a winter that refuses to completely give up....like last year.   I love snow on snow....it's so rare though.   Nothing like tracking the next event while you're in the midst of a warning level event.    It seems like the big dogs tend to wash away within a few days.   

March'08 was the unicorn exception.   Not only was it the largest snowfall in cmh history, it actually had better and longer staying power than most of our mid winter events.

Speaking of March '08....   for old time sakes.   I took this pic driving around during that storm in Westerville.    sigh

post-622-0-88938700-1331002141.jpg

Child’s play to the Blizzard of ‘96 in Philly! :D I was fortunate to experience both.

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

Don't get many minus 20/30 wind chills in GA? This is the other side of winter around here.  IMO 1/14 was worse.  Not quite as cold but it set in for a couple weeks without a warm up.  That was my first real taste of the brutal cold after moving up from SC and it hurt!  OTOH you should be used to this clipper coming, a quick 3-6 inches followed by 50-60 and possible thunderstorms lol.

lol

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41 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Child’s play to the Blizzard of ‘96 in Philly! :D I was fortunate to experience both.

Childsplay to the Boston blizzard of 2013 as well, but was still impressive. Chased the 2013 storm. Stayed in Worcester Mass. Got like 33" of snow and 85 mph winds. Was wild.

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6 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Childsplay to the Boston blizzard of 2013 as well, but was still impressive. Chased the 2013 storm. Stayed in Worcester Mass. Got like 33" of snow and 85 mph winds. Was wild.

I remember you doing that and asking if anyone wanted to come with you. You posted some pretty cool pics. 

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6 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

I remember you doing that and asking if anyone wanted to come with you. You posted some pretty cool pics. 

Yea was fun aside the getting pulled over in Youngstown on our way, forgot to renew my license was forced to wait til 8am when the bmv opened to renew it and was 5hrs behind. Had to drive in it, was nuts.

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4 hours ago, buckeye said:

One of the reason I like an early spring and loathe a winter that refuses to completely give up....like last year.   I love snow on snow....it's so rare though.   Nothing like tracking the next event while you're in the midst of a warning level event.    It seems like the big dogs tend to wash away within a few days.   

March'08 was the unicorn exception.   Not only was it the largest snowfall in cmh history, it actually had better and longer staying power than most of our mid winter events.

Speaking of March '08....   for old time sakes.   I took this pic driving around during that storm in Westerville.    sigh

post-622-0-88938700-1331002141.jpg

damn! I remember being up all night and you were one of the ones up late too...amazed that the Scioto valley (normally WTOD) was the jackpot) and watching the heavy snow and being amazed that for ONCE! CMH had the highest reading at over 20 inches! lol. And no other city in the United States matched us!(only Ottawa Canada tied us for the amount). Classic, classic winter weather!!!!!!  Did not harm anyone, not a terrible, fierce storm, just a blizzard warning(without a real blizzard)and everyone was prepared, nobody died, and it melted away not too long after. It was the perfect storm!  :)   If only I live long enough to experience another one! 

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