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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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1 hour ago, Dustin said:

The consensus at 18z yesterday is really what gets me.  What is it that all the globals missed out on that the mesoscale models started to sniff out this morning?  This is the type of storm that really erodes public perception of the profession...

I'm going to take an armchair guess and it was something that concerned me all week  I don't think the globals were handling the convection down south and the heat content being pumped up from the gulf very well.  that's why we would see a run with 6 inches then a run with 15 then a run with 6.  Like Buckeye when I saw that NAM run it really perked my ears.  It is the NAM, but it usually sniffs out the WAA pretty well.  On top of that the globals never got their shit together on where and when any phasing would occur, a lot of that due to not handling the heat pump from the south well in the first place.  Plus no full sampling of the SW until less than 24 hours out really didn't help either.

I never fully bought into this storm as soon as I saw it go from progressive to a late cutter.  I did expect a little more than what I've gotten and definitely didn't expect the amount of ice here over 1/4 inch.  It's not over by any means and I think points to my east should do fairly well as the evening progresses.  Just my weenie thoughts :weenie:

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8 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Good to see the snow line moving south now.  Bradford and Greenville are both roughly  west of Franklin County, so the snow line is not that far north, especially looking at the thicknesses.  I would think it should arrive in the Columbus area before 5.   

Radar is back to showing me as snow, still zr. Nice coating of ice though. Lost 3hrs on ice, yet if the switch is coming wonder why the short term models aren't showing much accums, such as hrrr only showing an inch?

20190119_155026-picsay.jpg.961d63ab0184b6d68b4ca92f4790daae.jpg

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9 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Good to see the snow line moving south now.  Bradford and Greenville are both roughly  west of Franklin County, so the snow line is not that far north, especially looking at the thicknesses.  I would think it should arrive in the Columbus area before 5.   

thats seems way too fast I'm thinking much later like 9.     

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3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Getting some sleet here so good sign. 

Friend in West Mansfield, Union County has heavy snow now.

that is good.

so I'm looping the HRRR runs on snowfall.   As i've looped the last several runs, (even though the latest looks bad), it's slowly morphing into what the euro snowfall map looks like.  It's not there yet, but will be interesting to see if continues towards it.

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Plumes spitting out 8 inches for Muncie :huh:.  IWX still somewhat confident on some heavy snows tonight....

Storm total amounts will vary quite a bit across the area. Areas
across southern Lower Michigan received around 6 inches of snow
last night with the leading mid level warm advection/fgen band
last night, and added several additional inches today. Another
area of max storm totals will likely orient along and southeast of
a line from roughly southeast of a line from Wauseon, OH to Fort
Wayne, IN to Marion, IN. Depending on band evolution cannot
discount possibility of some reports over 10 inches for the
extreme southeast across northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio along
and south of Route 24.

 

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7 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

The HRRR and RAP are looking like disasters.  By the time we go to snow, we get dry slotted.  Here’s hoping they’re wrong.

HRRR is showing the deform band break up with holes at times which is what kills the accums....We need that sucker to be dumping with no breaks if we are gonna reach even the low end of projections.   Still far enough out in HRRR-time not to be too worried ...yet.     

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5 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

But it also obliterates the deform band.  We get maybe an inch.  Time to throw in the towel?

probably best at this point to turn off the models and start looking at actual obs and radar.    Speaking of which, we have a lot of steady precip coming in from the southwest, will be interesting to see what it ends up being

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

probably best at this point to turn off the models and start looking at actual obs and radar.    Speaking of which, we have a lot of steady precip coming in from the southwest, will be interesting to see what it ends up being

Agree - not putting much stock in models

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