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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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The new HRRR is looking a touch colder for the 3rd run in a row.  The only thing that bothers me is that in my experience when the cold comes in, it comes in like a rocket.  On this it appears to start coming in at around 6pm but takes several hours to come through.  I’m not sure I buy that.

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My wife says the naysayers are out on FB, saying ILN dropped the ball.  I don't see what they could done as the models were calling for up to a foot or more when I went to bed last night at 11.   I'm afraid the next time a storm heads this way people will ignore it.  

Radio says Jym Ganahl is calling for blizzard conditions later, FWIW. 

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The thermals on this are absolutely frustrating to forecast for Franklin county.  I am a little concerned that as surface Ts start crashing around 23z, there is still southerly flow near and above 850mb, and this hangs on for at least another 2 hours (until 1z).  There could be a narrow SE to NE oriented corridor with an extended period of ZR before 850s finally crash.  Checking out soundings between 23z and 1z, there is actually a little warm advection.  

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1 minute ago, Dustin said:

The thermals on this are absolutely frustrating to forecast for Franklin county.  I am a little concerned that as surface Ts start crashing around 23z, there is still southerly flow near and above 850mb, and this hangs on for at least another 2 hours (until 1z).  There could be a narrow SE to NE oriented corridor with an extended period of ZR before 850s finally crash.  Checking out soundings between 23z and 1z, there is actually a little warm advection.  

Thanks for checking in, Dustin!  It’s nice to have a met weigh in our tough forecast!

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6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm afraid the defo band will set up shop south and east of here. This may end up being a huge bust. I doubt I see a flake.

Nah, I'd bet your good for 4 to 6.  Think the cutoff is gonna be from an Indy to Muncie line.  As Jay said that cold air is going to come in like a rocket, already is on meso analysis, and be a liitle too much too late for me.  Your closer to the energy and should get a couple more hours of snow than I will

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Well it's a mix of zr and ip here now, maybe trying to switch back over. Ip is definitely becoming more relevant. Not really paying much attention to models at this point as obviously, they're useless. Best we can hope for is the models are off on when cold air pushes in and this low starts moving east a bit faster.

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5 minutes ago, Dustin said:

The thermals on this are absolutely frustrating to forecast for Franklin county.  I am a little concerned that as surface Ts start crashing around 23z, there is still southerly flow near and above 850mb, and this hangs on for at least another 2 hours (until 1z).  There could be a narrow SE to NE oriented corridor with an extended period of ZR before 850s finally crash.  Checking out soundings between 23z and 1z, there is actually a little warm advection.  

this storm has been a forecasting nightmare for a lot of mets from what I'm reading.   OHweather said it best in his last update, "Fck this storm"...lol

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5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Nah, I'd bet your good for 4 to 6.  Think the cutoff is gonna be from an Indy to Muncie line.  As Jay said that cold air is going to come in like a rocket, already is on meso analysis, and be a liitle too much too late for me.  Your closer to the energy and should get a couple more hours of snow than I will

I hope you are right. It's just frustrating waiting for that first flake to fall. It's 230 pm and still haven't seen a flake or even any sleet or freezing rain.

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4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

this storm has been a forecasting nightmare for a lot of mets from what I'm reading.   OHweather said it best in his last update, "Fck this storm"...lol

The consensus at 18z yesterday is really what gets me.  What is it that all the globals missed out on that the mesoscale models started to sniff out this morning?  This is the type of storm that really erodes public perception of the profession...

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6 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Well it's a mix of zr and ip here now, maybe trying to switch back over. Ip is definitely becoming more relevant. Not really paying much attention to models at this point as obviously, they're useless. Best we can hope for is the models are off on when cold air pushes in and this low starts moving east a bit faster.

you're probably done with liquid....that cold air is pressing pretty good from the nw now starting to dry out Michigan and N.IN

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1 minute ago, Dustin said:

The consensus at 18z yesterday is really what gets me.  What is it that all the globals missed out on that the mesoscale models started to sniff out this morning?  This is the type of storm that really erodes public perception of the profession...

You guys must absolutely HATE social media....lol...I don't blame you.

My first gut punch was when the 00z nam came in much warmer...I had a bad feeling at that point even though the gfs held.

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Just now, buckeye said:

hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm :weenie:

Yep - I was 10, living in the Akron/Cleveland area.  I recall them calling off school which I couldn't figure out as it was around 50 and raining.  All I recall after that is being off school for a week. 

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4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm :weenie:

Man that was an awesome storm... heavy rain that changed quickly over to snow with temps plummeting with riduculous winds...at least we have that memory!

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Just now, Crowbar said:

Yep - I was 10, living in the Akron/Cleveland area.  I recall them calling off school which I couldn't figure out as it was around 50 and raining.  All I recall after that is being off school for a week. 

I was in Columbus.  It was drizzling and foggy all day.   The sound of the roaring wind woke me up around 4 in the morning, I thought a truck was parked outside reving it's engine, I looked out and you couldn't see across the street....no power and my folks turned on their batter radio and governor Rhodes was making an emergency address.   They say once in a lifetime for that one.

 

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Latest HRRR drives low right inot W PA giving about the eastern 3/4ths plain rain....    talk about a bust if that happens

This reminds me of the Saturday from I think 2005 - didn't have the ability to work from home so went to the office with a Winter Storm Warning calling for 8-12".  Got to the office early, worked for several hours, then looked outside and saw nothing.  Logged into the NWS site and saw the WSW was downgraded to a WWA.  Went back to my desk for a few hours, looked out again, and still nothing.  Went back to NWS site and they removed the WWA.    That was a total bust. 

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