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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve
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This storm has been extremely challenging for all of the areas I've had to worry about from MA/NH to NJ to OH, that's for sure.  Here's my first map attempt for Ohio, may tweak tomorrow...

The models are still struggling with the interaction between our storm and the lobe of the polar vortex swinging in from the Northwest, but, there have been some discernable trends over the last few cycles...

-The lobe of the polar vortex over Labrador/Newfoundland has trended to lift northeast noticeably faster, allowing heights to rise more in front of the storm as it moves east

-The southern shortwave has trended noticeably faster, which makes an earlier phase and hard cutter very unlikely.  The low track will at worst be along the Ohio River.

-The later phase/more progressive storm lowers the ceiling some in Ohio, and also limits the backside snow potential for areas that don't snow ahead of and during the storm. 

Although the Euro and UK still show significant snow well into central and even southern Ohio and the risk for a low track well into eastern Ohio has diminished since yesterday, the higher heights ahead of the storm kind of counteracts that and may allow for a stronger push of mid-level warmth.  Due to that, I favored more ice/sleet along I-70 and lower snow totals.  Given the strong high to the north with anomalous cold seeping south at the surface, there will almost certainly be a corridor of sleet/freezing rain, and it may be locally significant.  I-70 is as usual on the diving line, so I can't rule out more snow if the UK and Euro are correct with their weaker push of mid-level warmth, but I'd hedge against that unless they hold and other models trend towards that idea.  Some models are even warmer than what this forecast would imply though.  There is 12"+ potential where it stays all snow, but until we get an idea on when the progressive trend will stop didn't want to pull the trigger.  

32182010_1-19snowmap.thumb.jpg.7844843bcad33bb138fd8d32786d49ae.jpg

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44 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Yea, good thing is though at this point it is a possibility. This cake hasn't set yet.

This has been my thoughts all day too--- weren't the 12z runs the first to really sample? Or am I wrong on this...if just one run...let's roll trhu a couple of runs before we set things as all she wrote.

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22 minutes ago, OHweather said:

This storm has been extremely challenging for all of the areas I've had to worry about from MA/NH to NJ to OH, that's for sure.  Here's my first map attempt for Ohio, may tweak tomorrow...

The models are still struggling with the interaction between our storm and the lobe of the polar vortex swinging in from the Northwest, but, there have been some discernable trends over the last few cycles...

-The lobe of the polar vortex over Labrador/Newfoundland has trended to lift northeast noticeably faster, allowing heights to rise more in front of the storm as it moves east

-The southern shortwave has trended noticeably faster, which makes an earlier phase and hard cutter very unlikely.  The low track will at worst be along the Ohio River.

-The later phase/more progressive storm lowers the ceiling some in Ohio, and also limits the backside snow potential for areas that don't snow ahead of and during the storm. 

Although the Euro and UK still show significant snow well into central and even southern Ohio and the risk for a low track well into eastern Ohio has diminished since yesterday, the higher heights ahead of the storm kind of counteracts that and may allow for a stronger push of mid-level warmth.  Due to that, I favored more ice/sleet along I-70 and lower snow totals.  Given the strong high to the north with anomalous cold seeping south at the surface, there will almost certainly be a corridor of sleet/freezing rain, and it may be locally significant.  I-70 is as usual on the diving line, so I can't rule out more snow if the UK and Euro are correct with their weaker push of mid-level warmth, but I'd hedge against that unless they hold and other models trend towards that idea.  Some models are even warmer than what this forecast would imply though.  There is 12"+ potential where it stays all snow, but until we get an idea on when the progressive trend will stop didn't want to pull the trigger.

 

Thanks OH,, all makes good sense.  I appreciate your insight and stopping in to let us know... I imagine you're slightly busy right now. ;).  Good luck with all your forecasts!

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5 minutes ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said:

This has been my thoughts all day too--- weren't the 12z runs the first to really sample? Or am I wrong on this...if just one run...let's roll trhu a couple of runs before we set things as all she wrote.

And heck, I am still optimistic to get several quality inches out of this...and we are slop central as that suggested sub forum for SDF-PIT....boy, talk about a miserable thread....we get screwed so bad, you would need some meds if you dared to participate.

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42 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Thanks OH,, all makes good sense.  I appreciate your insight and stopping in to let us know... I imagine you're slightly busy right now. ;).  Good luck with all your forecasts!

Thanks...it'll be a fun/long weekend at work.  Would certainly be less annoying if it was all snow.  If we can rip off something cool here snow/ice wise I won't complain about the long week though.  I'll hope for a colder trend for Ohio! (would probably help me too)

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1 minute ago, OHweather said:

Thanks...it'll be a fun/long weekend at work.  Would certainly be less annoying if it was all snow.  If we can rip off something cool here snow/ice wise I won't complain about the long week though.  I'll hope for a colder trend for Ohio! (would probably help me too)

So are you in private forecasting now? 

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Just now, dilly84 said:

Last night we worried about a north trend now we may worry too suppression and moisture lol.

Could see this change begin at 18z even though it wasn't apparent on the surface.   Way less phasing and a more pos. tilted trough = weaker, faster, more south.   Quite honestly this looks like the nam starting to align with the euro.

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Just now, buckeye said:

Could see this change begin at 18z even though it wasn't apparent on the surface.   Way less phasing and a more pos. tilted trough = weaker, faster, more south.   Quite honestly this looks like the nam starting to align with the euro.

On the bright side we all get 3-4" :axe:

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20 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Wouldn't worry about snow amounts.  The takeaway is whether we're going to start seeing a trend.

Eh just commenting on how ridiculous it is. Both 12k and 3k are too far south for me. That's my initial thought. It's just amazing this close and the changes. Would like a mix of gfs and euro tbh lol. This reminds me of another system model-wise but I can't remember the one. Models waffled until the night before.

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