buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Still brings the r/s line up to cmh. I'd assume, because like the NAM, it reaches 996mb. But the surface low doesn't get as far north as it did on the nam. So id take the rs line 25 miles southeast due to icon being icon. the path of that low from hr 54-66 is insane. Interesting because on SV it's more of a straight path east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: the path of that low from hr 54-66 is insane. Interesting because on SV it's more of a straight path east I noticed that. Doesn't make much sense from 60-66 lol. Kinda just redevelops twice maybe? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Is anyone getting snow this morning ? Its 1030 am and I still havent seen a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: I noticed that. Doesn't make much sense from 60-66 lol. Kinda just redevelops twice maybe? Lol yup, the model switching around the center point of lowest pressure.... it' being non-commital lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Don't forget, if the gfs sucks we blame the shut down...if good, we credit new sampling data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Is anyone getting snow this morning ? Its 1030 am and I still havent seen a flake. Been snowing heavily in Bellbrook for the last hour. About a half inch or so added to the glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Is anyone getting snow this morning ? Its 1030 am and I still havent seen a flake. Yeah. Been snowing since about 7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, buckeye said: yup, the model switching around the center point of lowest pressure.... it' being non-commital lol Apparently the snow maps dont wanna load for the icon either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z gfs looks further north. Dont appear its craving today. Edit: actually a better run... or not.. seems to be lacking qpf considering the strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dilly84 said: 12z gfs looks further north. Dont appear its craving today. I think it's just faster which makes it seem further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: I think it's just faster which makes it seem further north. Yep edited. Its actually a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: Yep edited. Its actually a better run. pretty close though....any differnces are noise. verdict: no change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: pretty close though....any differnces are noise. verdict: no change Yea and seems to be lacking moisture I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 gem looks about the same too. I'm starting to wonder if the euro is going to be the caver. I mean we're inside 60 hours now and are still as confused as to what's going to fall from the sky on Saturday as we were 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Eh, I don't know what I think about this. It's definitely drier. SLP from Louisville to south of Pittsburgh (before a wonky jaunt SE) is concerning. Resolution is obviously not helping with definition of the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It you work for ILN NWS office you probably are reaching for the Maalox.... If I was a forecaster...I would never have put that map out they did in the early morning run. Too many unknowns to put that out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: gem looks about the same too. I'm starting to wonder if the euro is going to be the caver. I mean we're inside 60 hours now and are still as confused as to what's going to fall from the sky on Saturday as we were 5 days ago. Icon highest snow total in Ohio is 6". That also makes little sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, osubrett2 said: Eh, I don't know what I think about this. It's definitely drier. SLP from Louisville to south of Pittsburgh (before a wonky jaunt SE) is concerning. Resolution is obviously not helping with definition of the thermals. yea, lost a lot of our back end love on this run.... kind of opposite of what the nam showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: It you work for ILN NWS office you probably are reaching for the Maalox.... If I was a forecaster...I would never have put that map out they did in the early morning run. Too many unknowns to put that out there. CLE did the same lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: Icon highest snow total in Ohio is 6". That also makes little sense I'd expect to see the low weaker and further south for that to happen...unless it's due to more rain taking over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: It you work for ILN NWS office you probably are reaching for the Maalox.... If I was a forecaster...I would never have put that map out they did in the early morning run. Too many unknowns to put that out there. Oh trust me, there are a lot folks walking around here carrying rumors of a foot of snow on Saturday. Some of the local mets are at fault too for planting the seed. Of course the book on this has yet to be written.....soooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: CLE did the same lol I was surprised to see CLE put out a snow map this early, and given the different model solutions. CLE leaned heavily on the euro for their forecast... apparently because it handles storms coming out the southwest the best. I had thought the Euro had a bias of holding energy back in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Gem appears to have gone further north actually. its' all up to a 12 hour old euro run now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, buckeye said: Gem appears to have gone further north actually. its' all up to a 12 hour old euro run now. The low made it further north into WV, but not really any further north into Ohio. Just brings the rain maybe 20 miles further north. Snow location is pretty much the same just less moisture. Still has a swath of 10" todays: last nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC more north. Puts the low at the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Cincy12 said: CMC more north. Puts the low at the OV The low doesn't really get any further north. Just the rain gets further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Sorry in advance for this but: I fully expect to lose the euro wrt a big snowstorm. I won't pull the trigger on what I expect until I see the euro, but right now if you're being honest with yourself and you live in CMH area the forecast probably is going to be some version of a period of snow to sleet to start with a possible complete changeover to plain rain for several hours before turning back to a period of sleet/snow. Whatever we get after the change back is what's on the ground for the arctic air incoming. It sucks but if you dial down now and set your expectations according to what the models are telling us and what we know climo is around here with regard to these close call storms out of the sw.... you won't be disappointed, only surprised. Frankly I think this is a congrats CLE, Mansfield and Findlay deal. If the euro only slightly ticks north or holds and ukie holds.... then I give up, my god we're like 48 hrs away from precip and the euro is suppose to be the sharpest tack in the shed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: Sorry in advance for this but: I fully expect to lose the euro wrt a big snowstorm. I won't pull the trigger on what I expect until I see the euro, but right now if you're being honest with yourself and you live in CMH area the forecast probably is going to be some version of a period of snow to sleet to start with a possible complete changeover to plain rain for several hours before turning back to a period of sleet/snow. Whatever we get after the change back is what's on the ground for the arctic air incoming. It sucks but if you dial down now and set your expectations according to what the models are telling us and what we know climo is around here with regard to these close call storms out of the sw.... you won't be disappointed, only surprised. Frankly I think this is a congrats CLE, Mansfield and Findlay deal. If the euro only slightly ticks north or holds and ukie holds.... then I give up, my god we're like 48 hrs away from precip and the euro is suppose to be the sharpest tack in the shed. Good ol pessimism lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dilly84 said: Good ol pessimism lmao. I'll gladly choke down some crow and you guys can bump troll me if this all turns around...just keeping it real. My pessimism is only wrt the uk and euro which I've lost faith in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: I'll gladly choke down some crow and you guys can bump troll me if this all turns around...just keeping it real. My pessimism is only wrt the uk and euro which I've lost faith in. JMA further south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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