dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, osubrett2 said: Was just about to comment on the strength. We'll see if that is a trend with the others or NAM being NAM. Going to analyze the 2m, 850, and 925 temps in a second, but I'm at least liking the deform band that is now showing. You work for any field offices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Those "ticks" are what give me nightmares come Friday night while i'll sleeping. Really don't want to deal with an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Puts a nice band of 10-12" all across Ohio from Cincinnati to Steubenville and north. Curious though about ratios with that cold air coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Perfect track. Low goes from central KY to the tip of southern Ohio then over to near Morgantown. Can't ask for a better run than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: Puts a nice band of 10-12" all across Ohio from Cincinnati to Steubenville and north. Curious though about ratios with that cold air coming in. I wonder how much ice is in it that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: I wonder how much ice is in it that run? Not much. .2 for you, but had you with a brief period of rain. So the strength got the rain snow line to licking county never any further north as noted by the snow total map I'll post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 We are way overdue for a snowstorm that produces over 6 in of snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Not much Man, that's good news. TT is kind of tricky with the snow maps if there is mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Makes it to southern Franklin and licking. That's it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Now, if we take the Nam's amped bias away, what are we left with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: Now, if we take the Nam's amped bias away, what are we left with? 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Makes it to southern Franklin and licking. That's it. Pittsburgh weenies have nightmares that aren't worse than that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: 6z Or, a tick south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Pittsburgh weenies have nightmares that aren't worse than that... It definitely puts you on the line, but it does the same with Columbus and Cincinnati here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, vespasian70 said: Or, a tick south? 6z was pretty much perfect. I kinda like 12z better. More risk better rewards lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, dilly84 said: You work for any field offices? Unfortunately no. Just some PT work for a financial institution. Hopefully FT soon. But regarding the NAM, the snows for the I-70 crew come Saturday night into Sunday morning. Late afternoon and evening, the mix line is just north of I-70 before crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dilly84 said: 6z was pretty much perfect. I kinda like 12z better. More risk better rewards lol 6z was perfect for us. All critical thermal profiles to stay all snow remained a decent distance south of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Man I just ran through the 6z and what a disappointment to see the gfs 6z hold serve....I would have bet 10" of seasonal snowfall it was going to trend south. thing to watch for is that magical time just around 48-56 hrs on the models. That's the time when you get that initial move north northeast out of OK and we are at our most vulnerable for the wtod. Nam had some good and bad. Bad was it came further north, but good was it's starting to show snow wrap around right as the temps crash. You can see it really well on the snowfall maps. We really don't want to see this low get too close to the OH river, that's almost an assured recipe for mixing here. Central KY is about the farthest north we want it. I have a sinking feeling that we won't feel any more confident after the 12z runs.... The lead up to this is soooooo classic for our area....and there's a history of both good and bad outcomes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, osubrett2 said: Unfortunately no. Just some PT work for a financial institution. Hopefully FT soon. But regarding the NAM, the snows for the I-70 crew come Saturday night into Sunday morning. Late afternoon and evening, the mix line is just north of I-70 before crashing. People ask me all the time why I didnt go to meteorology school, I always tell them look at the Mets that struggle to find jobs as it is. Great field if you can find work in it. Unfortunately its not an easy task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: We really don't want to see this low get too close to the OH river, that's almost an assured recipe for mixing here. Central KY is about the farthest north we want it. I have a sinking feeling that we won't feel any more confident after the 12z runs.... The lead up to this is soooooo classic for our area....and there's a history of both good and bad outcomes Im not too concerned with the NAM. Biggest thing is that it was significantly stronger. A couple mb higher and r/s line is less likely to reach i70. Still appeared to be near a perfect run. And the storm is being sampled now. Hope we dont see too many wobbles after today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: We really don't want to see this low get too close to the OH river, that's almost an assured recipe for mixing here. Central KY is about the farthest north we want it. 3km Nam has it in south central KY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 any predictions on the gfs? Does it cave this afternoon or does it stay north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Im not too concerned with the NAM. Biggest thing is that it was significantly stronger. A couple mb higher and r/s line is less likely to reach i70. Still appeared to be near a perfect run. And the storm is being sampled now. Hope we dont see too many wobbles after today's runs. that can also work against us.... stronger storm has a stronger wtod...plus a stronger storm is more likely to gain more latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: that can also work against us.... stronger storm has a stronger wtod...plus a stronger storm is more likely to gain more latitude. I think he means like if the storm is weaker say 1000 instead of 996 it wont the push the r/s line as far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, buckeye said: that can also work against us.... stronger storm has a stronger wtod...plus a stronger storm is more likely to gain more latitude. Yes, but the 3k was about 2mb weaker and the low is in south central KY. Because of that I'd guess the 12k was overly ramped. BUT, I'd rather have the 12k where it is 3 days out than the low to be cutting through Columbus lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 icon should be better watching it unfold on storm vista it definitely has a more west to east trajectory, never getting too far north of the KY/TN border. But SV has pretty crappy graphics too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Basically threading a needle. Weaker low, we can be in the central KY line. Stonger low we need to dig deeper into the south.. I would think the NW trends should kick in at least 25-50 miles with 12z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 icon definitely south looking at the snow maps. Let's see how that translates on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: icon definitely south looking at the snow maps. Let's see how that translates on TT Still brings the r/s line up to cmh. I'd assume, because like the NAM, it reaches 996mb. But the surface low doesn't get as far north as it did on the nam. So id take the rs line 25 miles southeast due to icon being icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Is it safe to safe that the models are under estimating the cold surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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