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Kevin W

2018-19 New England Snow

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20 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

His location has not been updated.  He moved to Heartwellville, VT.

well that makes much more sense. lol

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On 3/10/2019 at 10:37 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

+1.0

42.2” YTD

Need 17-18” from the big coastal on the 21st to get to normal 

+9.0”

2 yesterday and 7 last night 

51.2” YTD 

 

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Got a new look coming up soon.

Finally bringing all this to the 21st century. LOL

Got a lot more to do though, but I'll get there.

Preview....but that's all it is right now:  New England Snow

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The new format looks great Kevin – can’t wait to see what it looks like when it all comes together.

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Thanks again for the work you put into this.  Looks like the new version will add useful info in an easily accessed format.  Good stuff!!

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3 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

149.8". This should do it.

Interesting.

I updated it for you, as I usually do.

The site is now ready for anybody to add/edit their own records. If anybody else needs to add/update, and you want to do it yourself, PM me for your login details.

I'll add that during the process of getting all the data transferred to one table (instead of one for every season), I removed all commas and quotes from the Note field. So 2", for example, becomes 2.

FYI. That can all be edited if you wish. 

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On ‎11‎/‎21‎/‎2018 at 10:56 PM, mreaves said:

Here is what I worry about going forward. "Ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck”

i know the signals look ok going forward but I am nervous about the rubber band snapping back, hard. 

I was working on logging in and bookmarking things for the new page and came across this comment when I browsed through some of the posts.  It’s not as if we didn’t have any mixed precipitation events this past season, but when the main gist of our conversation about rating the winter in the NNE thread was essentially “What kind of A do we give it?”, that should put the kibosh on our nervousness for how the winter is going to go.

That old adage probably has some sort of merit, but in some respects it’s like everyone’s fear about how getting October snow forebodes a weak snow season.  We get accumulating snow in most seasons (including this past one, which had four accumulating storms and the highest October snow total in my records), and they can’t all be bad.

That adage may be focused on temperatures, but I’d sure argue that good November snowfall doesn’t seem correlated with a bad overall winter season.  November 2018 was excellent with respect to snowfall, as were November 2007 and November 2008, and those were all top 5 snowfall seasons in my records.  If anything, the data here would likely support a positive correlation with between November and seasonal snowfall.

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The adage works for me, which I found surprising, though the sample size is small - 21 winters.  (Have not parsed Gardiner (13) or Ft Kent (9*).  The * is because we moved north from BGR on New Year's Day.  That season - 1975-76 - had AN snow for both NOV and winter, but I don't know a good way to determine medians which include a split season.)

My median for NOV snowfall is 2.5".  Though I've recorded measurable snow in 6 Octobers, in no case did that move O/N totals from below median to above, so that median is also 2.5".  The 10 winters with NOV snow below median averaged 96.5" while the 11 at/above median averaged 85.8".  The NOV median year came in 2012-13, which totaled 90.4", and switching that winter to the below-median group merely drops both groups' averages by half an inch.

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

The adage works for me, which I found surprising, though the sample size is small - 21 winters.  (Have not parsed Gardiner (13) or Ft Kent (9*).  The * is because we moved north from BGR on New Year's Day.  That season - 1975-76 - had AN snow for both NOV and winter, but I don't know a good way to determine medians which include a split season.)

My median for NOV snowfall is 2.5".  Though I've recorded measurable snow in 6 Octobers, in no case did that move O/N totals from below median to above, so that median is also 2.5".  The 10 winters with NOV snow below median averaged 96.5" while the 11 at/above median averaged 85.8".  The NOV median year came in 2012-13, which totaled 90.4", and switching that winter to the below-median group merely drops both groups' averages by half an inch.

To check for trends in my data, I thought about putting together a scatter plot and analyzing its correlation, but running the median seems like an efficient approach.  My data set is even smaller (13 seasons), but here’s what I’ve got:

 

Median October snowfall:  1.0”

Median November snowfall:  13.6”

 

Mean season snowfall:  155.9”

 

Mean season snowfall for Octobers above median:  150.0 ± 47.6”

Mean season snowfall for Octobers below median:  155.0 ± 26.8”

 

Mean season snowfall for Novembers above median:  171.8 ± 24.9”

Mean season snowfall for Novembers below median:  135.0 ± 41.6””

 

Any seasonal difference with respect to October snowfall is probably negligible (especially when looking at that difference with respect to the S.D. values).  There’s quite a trend when it comes to November snowfall though.  With respect to the snowier November values, the snowfall mean is 1.5 S.D. above the less snowy November values.  The S.D. values still overlap if you consider both data sets, although at this point any data set with the highly aberrant 2015-2016 season in it has its deviation bumped substantially.

With the data available though, the trend is certainly toward Novembers with good snowfall associating with seasons that have good snowfall.

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While listening to the TS line split and go around here, I played with Gardiner and Fort Kent.  Taken chronologically:

Fort Kent, 1976-77 thru 1984-85
Avg snow:  133.7"
Nov. med.:  10.6"
Nov. < med:  106.5"
Nov. >=med: 155.4
Using both Oct & Nov brings the difference down to 40", but that still makes Novie snow a good sign there.

Gardiner, 1985-86 thru 1997-98
Avg snow:  78.2"
Nov. med.:  3.6"
Nov < med:  84.7"
Nov >=med.:  74.4"
Adding October makes no difference.  (Only 2 of 13 had measurable, anyway.)

Maybe the more snow a place gets, the better a snowy November looks.  (Or more likely, SSS.)

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3 hours ago, tamarack said:

While listening to the TS line split and go around here, I played with Gardiner and Fort Kent.  Taken chronologically:

Fort Kent, 1976-77 thru 1984-85
Avg snow:  133.7"
Nov. med.:  10.6"
Nov. < med:  106.5"
Nov. >=med: 155.4
Using both Oct & Nov brings the difference down to 40", but that still makes Novie snow a good sign there.

Gardiner, 1985-86 thru 1997-98
Avg snow:  78=9.2"
Nov. med.:  3.6"
Nov < med:  84.7"
Nov >=med.:  74.4"
Adding October makes no difference.  (Only 2 of 13 had measurable, anyway.)

Maybe the more snow a place gets, the better a snowy November looks.  (Or more likely, SSS.)

I was already worried about it when I was running through my data, but at some point it’s just sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy, like testing if a snowy Dec, Jan, or Feb correlates with a snowy overall season.  If a month is a large enough component of the season’s snowfall, it’s just naturally going to contribute to an overall snowy season.  Those Novembers that went into the “above median” calculation from my data were up there in roughly the 20-40” range for snowfall.  Unless a site’s snowfall average is well into the hundreds of inches per season, those kinds of numbers are obviously going to have a positive correlation with season snowfall.

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