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Windspeed

Michael Banter Thread

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Just now, mempho said:

There may be some dry air in the upper levels but that will mix out some when this gets caught in Michael's circulation.  For a long time now, things have felt more reminiscent of August or early September than of October.  Our dewpoints (and overnight lows) have been way, way above normal (consistently +10 to +15) for weeks now and that's been a southeast phenomenon.  That's not to say dry air entrainment won't occur (it does that in August, too, ala Katrina) but I would expect that dry air punch to be like you'd expect from an August hurricane rather than an October one.

Also consider that the shallow shelf waters are going to not provide much in the way of cooling the way they typically would.  Obviously, this thing will have to undergo RI for any of that mean much, though.  If it does rapidly strengthen, then the rapid forward motion isn't likely to allow much time for either to do its work, though.  

:snorkle:

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#breakingnews Jim Cantore, Chris Warren and Mike Bettes will broadcast from Apalachicola, with Jen Carfagno, Chris Bruin, Alex Wilson and Reynolds Wolf working out of Panama City Beach and Tevin Wooten out of Tallahassee.

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nobody or model is even considering it, but really hope this thing doesn't make a hard right and affect us here in the Tampa area, nobody is even batting an eye at it much less preparing for anything.

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Doubt there is any chance of a direct hit there, but some rather high tides likely on Wednesday and perhaps tropical storm conditions briefly. Think the range of plausible landfalls is Mobile Bay to about Cedar Key, my guess being Panama City almost directly. 

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Let’s not forget the serious of a situation that will be the RED TIDE AND ALGE. That will be pushed into the coast this this monster storm 

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I’m still feeling okay about my call for a relative sleeper at landfall. 

 

It is due to there having been a number of sleepers over the years that I am apprehensive. The last bad impact for the panhandle was Ivan. Michael presents an intriguing possibility of a strengthening or at least steady state category 3 landfall on a NE bend. Due to experience with lower impact events, people could easily be taken by surprise or off gaurd tomorrow.

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21 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

It is due to there having been a number of sleepers over the years that I am apprehensive. The last bad impact for the panhandle was Ivan. Michael presents an intriguing possibility of a strengthening or at least steady state category 3 landfall on a NE bend. Due to experience with lower impact events, people could easily be taken by surprise or off gaurd tomorrow.

Well, if I were there I’d have to prepare for a serious outcome. Since I am in Vegas instead, my bet is still for a lower end hurricane. 

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I survived Sandy.  While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary.  If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride.

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4 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

I survived Sandy.  While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary.  If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride.

If you thought Sandy was bad try becoming a 2100 survivor. That would be a dope calling card/bragging right. Assuming we are all born in 2050 or 2075. Just a hypothetical.

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1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

it's looking great now that i trashed it :lol:

Relaxing shear and a loop current eddy. Your going to eat that in 12 hours when this is 130. It will weaken on approach but I like a 120 landfall 

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15 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

I survived Sandy.  While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary.  If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride.

Sandy was a glorified nor’easter. 

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3 hours ago, SandySurvivor said:

I survived Sandy.  While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary.  If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride.

Sandy was a big story because of the high tide and full moon during landfall. It wasn't a hurricane at landfall and if it wasn't for those issues listed above it would have been a non story. 

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6 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Sandy was a big story because of the high tide and full moon during landfall. It wasn't a hurricane at landfall and if it wasn't for those issues listed above it would have been a non story. 

Sandy had record IKE regardless of moon phase and all that jazz. Please don’t downplay a true legend. 

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5 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Sandy was a big story because of the high tide and full moon during landfall. It wasn't a hurricane at landfall and if it wasn't for those issues listed above it would have been a non story. 

This is still up for debate amongst some of those I know in the meteorology field.

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

I love AVN. emoji7.png

 

someday we'll tell our grandkids about the old AVN prior to when the commies at NOAA changed the color palate to make storms look more intense for AGW propaganda purposes

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Watching the eye close off is like watching a dog chase it's tail. You keep getting dizzier and it never gets any closer.

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If this hits as a high end CAT 4 Tallahassee will lose the entire power grid. 95% power outage and it will be weeks to a month for some to get it restored. I cannot overstate how poorly situated the power grid is relative to large trees that will bend better than Stormy Daniels 

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