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Windspeed

Michael Banter Thread

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"No surge" man should never give anyone any logistics advice to anyone ever again. I was watching the stream for over an hour before the surge happened. Brett originally left Mexico Beach for Port St. Joe due to it being such low elevation and being concerned about the surge.  Brett's car passenger also told Brett it was a really bad idea to stay in Mexico beach, so they left. Their plan was to go to some sort of Hospital in Port St. Joe because it had a better elevation. When they were on the marina they got a call from "No surge" man who egged Brett on to go back to Mexico beach. And then the call from when he was on speaker phone. From the way Brett talked to him it sounded like he was his boss? He literally had no concern for Bretts safety until it was too late.

Of course personal responsibility comes into play but pressuring someone to risk their life for views is rather abhorrent. I'm sure everyone has a friend they know they could talk them into doing something dumb, but don't. 

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I found a posting of their "raw" video where the audio was left intact as they left Port St. Joe and just before the more-shown video of them bailing as the surge came in.  The exchange about the "surge" starts at ~4:17 -

 

Here is the unedited video

 

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21 minutes ago, Benadrill said:

Here is the unedited video

 

Thank you. :)  That is when they were driving around Port St. Joe.  IIRC, I think Stephen? (or whoever the other guy is in the car) mentioned something about having been there the previous week because his sister had just gotten married there last week. I think they briefly drove into the parking lot of the place where I guess the reception was, which looked out over the beach.  I don't know if that part is in the video (just started watching) but it may have happened before this portion started.

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11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Thank you. :)  That is when they were driving around Port St. Joe.  IIRC, I think Stephen? (or whoever the other guy is in the car) mentioned something about having been there the previous week because his sister had just gotten married there last week. I think they briefly drove into the parking lot of the place where I guess the reception was looking out over the beach.  I don't know if that part is in the video (just started watching) but it may have happened before this portion started.

Nevermind, that video isn't even the full stream, I thought it was. That video starts right after they left the Marina. The events you are describing took place before it even started raining much I believe. 

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7 minutes ago, Benadrill said:

Nevermind, that video isn't even the full stream, I thought it was. That video starts right after they left the Marina. The events you are describing took place before it even started raining much I believe. 

That's okay because that helps complete some of the other parts that have been posted.  The original footage posted had no audio at the beginning and then had the audio resume right around the time they had pulled into the driveway of the house where they had bailed.

As a sidenote, based on the post that had the location of the house, I screen capped the map and circled in red where they ended up in relation to the area (i.e., an area that is labeled as "Beacon Hill" which was about halfway between St. Joe Beach and Mexico Beach).  It was probably about the worst place to be caught because of the narrow stretch of beach there and no sand bar or barrier island -

 

chasers-brettadair-location-at-landfall-10102018.PNG

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

That's okay because that helps complete some of the other parts that have been posted.  The original footage posted had no audio at the beginning and then had the audio resume right around the time they had pulled into the driveway of the house where they had bailed.

As a sidenote, based on the post that had the location of the house, I screen capped the map and circled in red where they ended up in relation to the area (i.e., an area that is labeled as "Beacon Hill" which was about halfway between St. Joe Beach and Mexico Beach).  It was probably about the worst place to be caught because of the narrow stretch of beach there and no sand bar or barrier island -

 

chasers-brettadair-location-at-landfall-10102018.PNG

They are really lucky they found that stilt house the exact moment they did. Watching this live was horrifying. It was burnt into my head for like a whole day. I think partially because I've been caught in a flash flood that made my car float. That was scary so I could not imagine being on an ocean front during a hurricane.

Around 13:00 min in (of the unedited vid I linked in couple posts above) is when his boss tells him that if he wants to get the eye he has to leave NOW and reaffirms Brett that the surge won't be a problem. When I was watching it live I was like is this guy serious? That guys job should be to talk sense and reason into an adrenaline filled chaser and monitor weather conditions closely. Whoever "David" is needs to quit/resign/get fired. He also seems to be on the phone with him a couple minutes in (not on speaker phone) revolving going back to Mexico Beach. 

This is the beginning part of the stream when they were originally in Mexico Beach but left to Port St. Joe because of no cover and elevation surge concerns. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Benadrill said:

They are really lucky they found that stilt house the exact moment they did. Watching this live was horrifying. It was burnt into my head for like a whole day. I think partially because I've been caught in a flash flood that made my car float. That was scary so I could not imagine being on an ocean front during a hurricane.

Around 13:00 min in (of the vid I linked above) is when his boss tells him that if he wants to get the eye he has to leave NOW and reaffirms Brett that the surge won't be a problem. When I was watching it live I was like is this guy serious? That guys job should be to talk sense and reason into an adrenaline filled chaser and monitor weather conditions closely. Whoever "David" is needs to quit/resign/get fired.

This is the beginning part of the stream when they were originally in Mexico Beach but left to Port St. Joe because of no cover and elevation surge concerns. 

 

Was watching it live and honestly thought they were going to be casualties.

 

But that boss-dude, David, should *not* ever be in charge of anything related to weather, ever again. There's bad judgement calls, and then there's downright idiotic judgement calls. His was definitely in the latter. 

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On ‎10‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 9:57 PM, twister4999 said:

SENC is on the verge of Kevin Martin troll status. 

I'm Monitoring...

Givin some of the videos/pictures coming out, I'll give My assessment.. Here in a couple Days (On Mexico Beach Landfall).. 

I was volunteering yesterday & Today,,, , re: Cajun Navy and other folks,,  running Supplies into West Pender/ Eastern Brunswick Counites yesterday.. 

So I wasn't able too participate in the Discussion yesterday.. 

God Bless everyone...

Again, I've said..

I've a OPEN Mind.. It's not closed folks..

I'm all for Healthy Debate and Discussions..

I'll BRB gotta run another Load of Supplies' to Currie, NC

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1 hour ago, Benadrill said:

They are really lucky they found that stilt house the exact moment they did. Watching this live was horrifying. It was burnt into my head for like a whole day. I think partially because I've been caught in a flash flood that made my car float. That was scary so I could not imagine being on an ocean front during a hurricane.

Around 13:00 min in (of the vid I linked above) is when his boss tells him that if he wants to get the eye he has to leave NOW and reaffirms Brett that the surge won't be a problem. When I was watching it live I was like is this guy serious? That guys job should be to talk sense and reason into an adrenaline filled chaser and monitor weather conditions closely. Whoever "David" is needs to quit/resign/get fired.

This is the beginning part of the stream when they were originally in Mexico Beach but left to Port St. Joe because of no cover and elevation surge concerns. 

 

Thanks for posting that part too!  That is where you really hear the discussion about the lack of shelter positions in Mexico Beach.

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So the project is to turn this into a cat-2 in a couple of days. Good luck with that. Maybe no surge guy can assist. (I noticed that no surge guy went from no surge to "won't last long" which you have to wonder, how brief is an okay surge?). I hope those Tyndall folks can back up their 150-170 mph estimates, not because I doubt them at all but because it will be helpful for the eventual decisions about how strong this really was at landfall. Thinking 70% likely cat-4 and 30% possible cat-5 somewhere in the zone, but we may never know for sure. 

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23 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

I FEEL SO BAD FOR THIS PERSON :rolleyes:

 

So sad glad see that but with the changes in the world. We really need to start thinking about if its going to cost effective and/or safe to rebuild :(  I really hope to see more planning for the future to make sure its up to code and able to be ready for the next cat 5 or 4  Praying for all the people there. 

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Just spent some time pursuing this thread, and feel inclined to offer my own two cents regarding the debate on the landfalling intensity of hurricane Michael.

This intercept was my 31st hurricane experience dating back to 1984.  Been in 10 different “major” hurricanes, and encountered confirmed 140 mph wind gusts during hurricane Irma in Naples, just last year.

All that said, the indescribable ferocity of the winds I observed within the RMW, in Mexico Beach, was beyond anything I had ever witnessed or had conceived was possible, beforehand; meaning how can one adequately estimate the wind velocity of  such extreme winds when they’d never seen anything close to it, previously?!

The only genuine meteorological debate that merits such discussion (related to Michael’s landfall intensity) should center around whether it was truly a high-end category four or actually achieved category-five strength.  Personally, I’m in the camp that argues for a 140 kt post-storm upgrade.    

P.S.  Despite all my chase experience, I was one who underestimated just how high the surge would get where I positioned myself, and in doing so, lost my car and phone in the process.  Based on google maps, it appeared I was at an elevation that was sufficient.  My vehicle wasn’t!

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5 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Just spent some time pursuing this thread, and feel inclined to offer my own two cents regarding the debate on the landfalling intensity of hurricane Michael.

This intercept was my 31st hurricane experience dating back to 1984.  Been in 10 different “major” hurricanes, and encountered confirmed 140 mph wind gusts during hurricane Irma in Naples, just last year.

All that said, the indescribable ferocity of the winds I observed within the RMW, in Mexico Beach, was beyond anything I had ever witnessed or had conceived was possible, beforehand; meaning how can one adequately estimate the wind velocity of  such extreme winds when they’d never seen anything close to it, previously?!

The only genuine meteorological debate that merits such discussion (related to Michael’s landfall intensity) should center around whether it was truly a high-end category four or actually achieved category-five strength.  Personally, I’m in the camp that argues for a 140 kt post-storm upgrade.    

P.S.  Despite all my chase experience, I was one who underestimated just how high the surge would get where I positioned myself, and in doing so, lost my car and phone in the process.  Based on google maps, it appeared I was at an elevation that was sufficient.  My vehicle wasn’t!

I was looking at some of the archive footage of Harvey coming into Rockaport, TX, which seemed to have become somewhat of an indicator for "damage" from a Cat 4.  And although many residences were more scattered throughout the area, there were strips of densely-built homes near the waterfront that suffered both major and catastrophic damage, but not to the extreme that you see at Mexico Beach.   Harvey at initial landfall had a central pressure of 937, almost 20 mb more than Michael.  The geography of the Rockaport area include barrier islands that may have had some mitigation of the surge as I don't recall seeing any chaser video that showed the type of surge that Michael produced at Mexico Beach.  In fact since you mention Irma, the damage that you see in Mexico Beach seems to mirror that of Barbuda & St. Maarten from Irma (which was a Cat 5 at the time it hit those islands and had a 914 - 916 mb pressure at landfall).  I can't speak for the type of construction code in Barbuda or St. Maarten vs FL, but the impacts of the hurricanes on each area seem pretty comparable. You also see some similarities with Maria landfall at Yabucoa & Humacao, P.R. in terms of white-out winds/rain.

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On 10/13/2018 at 1:28 PM, SENC said:

I'm Monitoring...

Givin some of the videos/pictures coming out, I'll give My assessment.. Here in a couple Days (On Mexico Beach Landfall).. 

I was volunteering yesterday & Today,,, , re: Cajun Navy and other folks,,  running Supplies into West Pender/ Eastern Brunswick Counites yesterday.. 

So I wasn't able too participate in the Discussion yesterday.. 

God Bless everyone...

Again, I've said..

I've a OPEN Mind.. It's not closed folks..

I'm all for Healthy Debate and Discussions..

I'll BRB gotta run another Load of Supplies' to Currie, NC

Is your OPEN mind ready to issue a mea culpa for your ridiculous CAT 2 hot take?

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FWIW, I have a good source down in FL who is intimately involved with damage assessment, and what I've heard is that damage outside of the surge zone is basically bimodal:  built to post-Andrew code:  survived with minimal damage; older construction: obliterated.

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Nice charted pressure vs distance relationship/comparison by Josh Morgerman [mention=19]hurricanejosh[/mention] between two of his Kestrel instruments, seperated by 3.7 miles. One left at his original chase location recorded 939.7 mb. It remained inside the eyewall. A second he had inside the hotel at his final chase position that measure 923.2 mb just inside the western periphery of the eye. A difference of 16.5 mb in 3.7 miles or 4.46 mb per mile. That is probably not exact as the pressure drop probably increased from point B to A. At any rate, that aligns pretty well to the last 919 mb center fix by recon at landfall, though central pressure may have actually dropped a mb or two lower as landfall was underway. Regardless, that is an impressively tight pressure gradient. Post analysis should definitely be interesting.

 

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