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Michael Banter Thread


Windspeed
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Just now, mempho said:

There may be some dry air in the upper levels but that will mix out some when this gets caught in Michael's circulation.  For a long time now, things have felt more reminiscent of August or early September than of October.  Our dewpoints (and overnight lows) have been way, way above normal (consistently +10 to +15) for weeks now and that's been a southeast phenomenon.  That's not to say dry air entrainment won't occur (it does that in August, too, ala Katrina) but I would expect that dry air punch to be like you'd expect from an August hurricane rather than an October one.

Also consider that the shallow shelf waters are going to not provide much in the way of cooling the way they typically would.  Obviously, this thing will have to undergo RI for any of that mean much, though.  If it does rapidly strengthen, then the rapid forward motion isn't likely to allow much time for either to do its work, though.  

:snorkle:

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I’m still feeling okay about my call for a relative sleeper at landfall. 

 

It is due to there having been a number of sleepers over the years that I am apprehensive. The last bad impact for the panhandle was Ivan. Michael presents an intriguing possibility of a strengthening or at least steady state category 3 landfall on a NE bend. Due to experience with lower impact events, people could easily be taken by surprise or off gaurd tomorrow.

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21 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

It is due to there having been a number of sleepers over the years that I am apprehensive. The last bad impact for the panhandle was Ivan. Michael presents an intriguing possibility of a strengthening or at least steady state category 3 landfall on a NE bend. Due to experience with lower impact events, people could easily be taken by surprise or off gaurd tomorrow.

Well, if I were there I’d have to prepare for a serious outcome. Since I am in Vegas instead, my bet is still for a lower end hurricane. 

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4 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

I survived Sandy.  While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary.  If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride.

If you thought Sandy was bad try becoming a 2100 survivor. That would be a dope calling card/bragging right. Assuming we are all born in 2050 or 2075. Just a hypothetical.

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15 minutes ago, SandySurvivor said:

I survived Sandy.  While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary.  If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride.

Sandy was a glorified nor’easter. 

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3 hours ago, SandySurvivor said:

I survived Sandy.  While this storm won't be as bad as Sandy in terms of wind and surge (Rainfall totals look to be higher) it sure does look scary.  If this storm produces half as much surge as Sandy along with the wind those people in Florida are in for a heck of a ride.

Sandy was a big story because of the high tide and full moon during landfall. It wasn't a hurricane at landfall and if it wasn't for those issues listed above it would have been a non story. 

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6 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Sandy was a big story because of the high tide and full moon during landfall. It wasn't a hurricane at landfall and if it wasn't for those issues listed above it would have been a non story. 

Sandy had record IKE regardless of moon phase and all that jazz. Please don’t downplay a true legend. 

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5 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Sandy was a big story because of the high tide and full moon during landfall. It wasn't a hurricane at landfall and if it wasn't for those issues listed above it would have been a non story. 

This is still up for debate amongst some of those I know in the meteorology field.

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