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Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All timer for sure. And with all the data at our fingertips now. 

In your opinion how long would it have kept strengthening had it been over water, before an ERC occurred?  6 hours? 12 hours?  It still strengthened over the marshy land at the water's edge but if it had still been over water it might have strengthened significantly more before the next ERC.

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36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

In your opinion how long would it have kept strengthening had it been over water, before an ERC occurred?  6 hours? 12 hours?  It still strengthened over the marshy land at the water's edge but if it had still been over water it might have strengthened significantly more before the next ERC.

Really tough to say. If we were any good at predicting those, we'd be much better at intensity forecasts.

It's possible the last bit of strengthening was due to the eye consolidating mesovotices or something along those lines.

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Really tough to say. If we were any good at predicting those, we'd be much better at intensity forecasts.

It's possible the last bit of strengthening was due to the eye consolidating mesovotices or something along those lines.

I remember that was written about Andrew in its post analysis too and upgrade to Cat 5

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8 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would not be shocked if Ray's 110 mph landfall forecast verifies.  I would also not be shocked at 145mph readings.  This has been rather unpredicateble as far as intensity.

One this will def happen is a beastly surge.  Opal II indeed.

I knew I was in big trouble as soon as I woke up.

Its okay....I have a better idea of what to look for with regard to requisite antecedent conditions to sustain such strength.

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9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ray and I were discussing this the other night... 

Personally, over the decades of experience I've had, the statistic bearing out a tendency for weakening as these GOM storms approach the coast, I mainatain, appeals to be more of a geo-morphological coincidence based upon intensity timing/schemes with the geography of that region more so than anything else. 

In simple terms, it's "where" they bomb that is paramount -

Storms tend to move over the so -called "loop current" but... just the shape of the GOM is such that a storm's get free and clear of disruptive influence in that triangulum where Camille, and Micheal, Opal... Katrina all passed through, and at that time they enter the most favorable total kinematic support of deepening...  That's "in the means" ... That just means that odds are, they have already achieved their greatest intensity the day before they approach the coast. Purely a numbers game...   But it doesn't inherently limit a storms ability to go berserk closer to land-fall either. 

Yea, this event def. lends credence to this....the less than pristine atmosphere over the GOM retarded development enough to prevent an ERC before LF.

That said, I def. do think there is something to continental dry air/mid level interaction providing some impetus for weakening. I think its a combo of both theories.

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20 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

so much bickering about wind speeds in the other thread...doesn't everyone know max winds in any hurricane are likely to be extremely localized

monster of a storm regardless....something that will be in the news for days

Yeah. It is rather annoying.  Unless the eyeball passes over multiple ASOS, what would you expect.

Beefy storm

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