WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: Maybe Camille is a reasonable facsimile after all. Yikes! Thanks Jerry...I thought so this morning when I saw it had strengthened so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: FWIW 12z NAM shifted significantly north and gets southern ct into the good rains now Well it's West of guidance now...so that may have something to do with it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Pressure is now 920mb which tied for 3rd lowest ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pressure is now 920mb which tied for 3rd lowest ever That probably won't be the official central pressure, but we're solidly in the top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 This could settled just below Andrew (i.e. #4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 923 mb and 130 knots officially on the intermediate update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That probably won't be the official central pressure, but we're solidly in the top 10. 923/ 150 mph now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 This might have been a Cat 5 if there was more time to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 At this point Cat 4 or Cat 5 is extreme devastation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Well the idea of cat 2 at landfall is a gigantic fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This might have been a Cat 5 if there was more time to strengthen. If there was no land until NC/VA this might have turned into a Cat 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If there no land until NC/VA this might have turned into a Cat 10. The ironic thing is there have been no Cat 4 landfalls further north than South Carolina since the 50s. And no Cat 5 landfalls north of the gulf coast in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 918 now on the extrap, so maybe 922ish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 How about 919 mb! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Landfall as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 919 mb officially... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: 919 mb officially... Cat 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Cat 5? You could make that argument, and it's not a soft argument either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 39 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 918 now on the extrap, so maybe 922ish? 177 mph wind recorded just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: 177 mph wind recorded just offshore Where was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You could make that argument, and it's not a soft argument either. Might be upgraded post landfall like Andrew was. IMO the standards for a Cat 5 are too high- in the Pacific a 150 mph is considered a "super typhoon"- it should be the same in the Atlantic. 157 mph is just a very odd number to use, I believe in rounding everything in geometric steps (70 mph Cat 1, 90 mph Cat 2, 110 mph Cat 3, 130 mph Cat 4, 150 mph Cat 5.) It would fix the 111 mph Cat 3 problem too, when a 110 mph hurricane falls 1 mph short...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 yeah Looks to me as though this is pullin an Andrew - peaking "AS" it is crossing on shore... about the worst plausible scenario relative to all hells that can take place outside an asteroid impact - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Where was that? per TWC/Cantore just offshore some place called "Mexico Beach" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 May be a situation where if this had another 20 miles of sea surface to cross the wind merely hasn't responded to the pressure nadir - up to this point this system's been pretty tightly in sync with typical pressure to wind relationship so 919 ....mm one can make a case. We'll probably get some post-mortem clarity (maybe) based upon building science - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 PAM 82mph G 118mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: per TWC/Cantore just offshore some place called "Mexico Beach" Officially the highest I've seen is a 130 mph from a 15 m mobile tower in Mexico Beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 Quite a pressure drop into that eyewall. METAR KPAM 101708Z AUTO 06071G103KT 1/8SM R14/1000V1400FT +RA FG SQ M 25/25 A2750 RMK AO2 RAB1658 PRESFR SLP315 CHINO RWY32 $ = METAR KPAM 101647Z AUTO 06047G71KT 3/4SM R14/3000VP6000FT +RA BR SQ BKN007 25/25 A2828 RMK AO2 VIS 3/4V1 1/4 LTG DSNT SE CIG 007V009 PRESFR SLP579 $ = 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: May be a situation where if this had another 20 miles of sea surface to cross the wind merely hasn't responded to the pressure nadir - up to this point this system's been pretty tightly in sync with typical pressure to wind relationship so 919 ....mm one can make a case. We'll probably get some post-mortem clarity (maybe) based upon building science - Thats what I was saying and might strengthen a bit right as it hits land, some storms tend to do that over marshy land right near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 10, 2018 Share Posted October 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Officially the highest I've seen is a 130 mph from a 15 m mobile tower in Mexico Beach. Oh okay I just found out the other one was at elevation. What's at 4500 ft down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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