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Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????


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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

What’s the reasons why there are so many uncertainties with intensities within the GoM? 

Most notably shallow, but very warm water. It's also unique because there is land in just about any direction, which can affect storms via friction and dry air entrainment. 

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Really Tip??

 

We go through this with every powerful storm....It's the Wonder/amazement of the Meteorology of the whole thing that people like us get caught up in(nobody is wishing it to kill and wreak havoc...but it's gonna do just that whether it's a high end Cat 4 as it is now, or a 5).  I mean is there really a need to even state things like that anymore.  This is a weather board...people love extreme weather...especially people into the weather.  

Heh, it's just an opinion -... to me, there is DEFINITELY a need to state "things" like that, because it keeps matters in some semblance of realism with checks and balances... 

What we go through with in every powerful storm is the same people that really shine on with a lust for seeing dystopian carnage unfold, while trying to hide behind dismissive flimsy palm-tipping mantra that "Welp, people love extreme weather"  

Mm, not good enough for me. The denial/truth therein is that wanting on big events in a posting tenor that appeals as 'gaiety' (for lack of better word) with each surpassed increment of rifle velocity being achieved ... should not be celebrated.  Taking joy there?  The flimsy excuse side-steps the elephant of the thing. 

Sociopath is too strong of a word, but there definitely is some sort of pseudo-sociopathic abandon that lusts for this sort of thing while sitting afar and watching images on technology's great cinema.  We aren't sitting in a movie theater here.   

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Ray and I were discussing this the other night... 

Personally, over the decades of experience I've had, the statistic bearing out a tendency for weakening as these GOM storms approach the coast, I mainatain, appeals to be more of a geo-morphological coincidence based upon intensity timing/schemes with the geography of that region more so than anything else. 

In simple terms, it's "where" they bomb that is paramount -

Storms tend to move over the so -called "loop current" but... just the shape of the GOM is such that a storm's get free and clear of disruptive influence in that triangulum where Camille, and Micheal, Opal... Katrina all passed through, and at that time they enter the most favorable total kinematic support of deepening...  That's "in the means" ... That just means that odds are, they have already achieved their greatest intensity the day before they approach the coast. Purely a numbers game...   But it doesn't inherently limit a storms ability to go berserk closer to land-fall either. 

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Most notably shallow, but very warm water. It's also unique because there is land in just about any direction, which can affect storms via friction and dry air entrainment. 

Thanks. 

Pretty much reasons that aren’t to figure out. The shallow but very warm waters makes tremendous sense. Would explain why such rapid intensificatiins can occur when there isn’t anything to inhibit weakening 

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43 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Mappy just mentioned in another thread even The Weather Channel's teams are bugging out to move further inland.

An amazing storm that seemed to come out of nowhere.

Echoes of Charley, which went from a middling Cat 2 up to a LF as a solid 4 in very few hours.  That was a far smaller system than Michael, however. 

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Wow.  Getting into the 920's.   This is a serious situation.  Florence was overplayed in the media and this one so far is underplayed.  Besides the coastal situation, there will be huge tree damage through Georgia and perhaps Carolina's.  As someone interested in photography I have never seen a stadium effect on land.  Perhaps with a daylight storm we will get some at Panama City.  All those news teams on the beach are going to have to get out fast.  No need for fake camera setups with news guys trying to stay a foot.  Going to be a wild afternoon and evening down there.

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Wow.  Getting into the 920's.   This is a serious situation.  Florence was overplayed in the media and this one so far is underplayed.  Besides the coastal situation, there will be huge tree damage through Georgia and perhaps Carolina's.  As someone interested in photography I have never seen a stadium effect on land.  Perhaps with a daylight storm we will get some at Panama City.  All those news teams on the beach are going to have to get out fast.  No need for fake camera setups with news guys trying to stay a foot.  Going to be a wild afternoon and evening down there.

It's been following the climo curve for pressure/wind relationship pretty closely, so if we can get into the low 920s, 135 knots is achievable. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's also notably left of near-term track guidance ... 20 miles inside of 3 hours is significant - but... perhaps a 'wobble' 

I noticed that. Was looking at Rays post last night and the NHC track. Was wondering if guidance was maybe thinking the incoming trough/CF was gonna kick Michael on a harder right hand bend in the track. At this time, definitely on the west side of track guidance.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's also notably left of near-term track guidance ... 20 miles inside of 3 hours is significant - but... perhaps a 'wobble' 

I know I'm stating the obvious but this makes a big difference in terms of impact.  East of Panama City is pretty empty.  If it hits PCB directly, lots more stuff to destroy.

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Some signs of an outer eyewall forming now (you can see a secondary wind max SE of the inner eyewall) and microwave imagery is starting to get that look as well. That should mean things level off here, but we may also not have enough time to weaken through a full ERC before landfall. 

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55 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Wow.  Getting into the 920's.   This is a serious situation.  Florence was overplayed in the media and this one so far is underplayed.  Besides the coastal situation, there will be huge tree damage through Georgia and perhaps Carolina's.  As someone interested in photography I have never seen a stadium effect on land.  Perhaps with a daylight storm we will get some at Panama City.  All those news teams on the beach are going to have to get out fast.  No need for fake camera setups with news guys trying to stay a foot.  Going to be a wild afternoon and evening down there.

Foresters in the Panhandle, AL and western GA must be shaking in their boots.  I recall an article in Journal of Forestry several months after Camille that showed a bullet-shaped paraboloid about 30 miles wide at the base and 120 miles N-S with total tree destruction, plus a sizable "penumbra" of serious damage around it.

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