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Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????


USCAPEWEATHERAF
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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Camille redux...further east!!  What a Monster..and strengthening still....

 

saturday they were talking a minimal cat 1 perhaps....amazing how these intensity forecasts are just so difficult to forecast 3 -4 days out.  

Not even close....lol.   

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I am relatively familiar with area of projected landfall being originally from SW Georgia and travelling down to the area to visit the beaches quite a bit over the years.  In terms of impact on population centers, there aren't many better places that this could hit.  The area is called the Forgotten Coast for a reason.  East of Panama City and around the Big Bend is relatively undeveloped compared with the areas farther from Panama City west to the AL line.  There aren't any of the large, ocean-front towers that you see in that area.  Between the coast and I-10 there are hundreds of thousands of acres of national and state forest land and miles and miles of pine forest.  This isn't meant to minimize the strength of this storm or the impact it will have on the people who do live in the area but all things considered, it would be worse if it were to landfall further west.  Further inland in the Tallahassee area is a bit of a different story but there obviously isn't a surge worry.  I would imagine their main worry will be wind damage to the large trees and heavy rain.

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

:rolleyes:

Seriously though, there are no hints of weakening at the moment and probably a fair chance at attaining Category 5 before landfall.

What’s the tide situation like? The storm surge I would think is going to be catastrophic in places. Aren’t some of those places like below sea-level?

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's a palpable macabre in here where people "want" this to be a category 5 ordeal - 

Interesting

You know the drill.  Weenies want "interesting" weather events...as long as it doesn't hit their house.   

I am hoping it impacts the lesser populated areas and that it weakens some... 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

What’s the tide situation like? The storm surge I would think is going to be catastrophic in places. Aren’t some of those places like below sea-level?

Tide will be incoming at landfall, so overall we're lucky that water levels are low this morning/early afternoon.

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's a palpable macabre in here where people "want" this to be a category 5 ordeal - 

Interesting

Really Tip??

 

We go through this with every powerful storm....It's the Wonder/amazement of the Meteorology of the whole thing that people like us get caught up in(nobody is wishing it to kill and wreak havoc...but it's gonna do just that whether it's a high end Cat 4 as it is now, or a 5).  I mean is there really a need to even state things like that anymore.  This is a weather board...people love extreme weather...especially people into the weather.  

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You know the drill.  Weenies want "interesting" weather events...as long as it doesn't hit their house.   

I am hoping it impacts the lesser populated areas and that it weakens some... 

I think the chances of this weakening in the next 5-6 hours before landfall, are very low.  He's on an uptick as he's approaching the coast....it's full steam ahead with this one now it looks like.

 

The amazing part is...nobody saw a High end Cat 4 coming back on Saturday....just mind boggling that everything has come together like this.   

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think the chances of this weakening in the next 5-6 hours before landfall, are very low.  He's on an uptick as he's approaching the coast....it's full steam ahead with this one now it looks like.

 

The amazing part is...nobody saw a High end Cat 4 coming back on Saturday....just mind boggling that everything has come together like this.   

That's the thing, these GoM TCs can both quickly strengthen and weaken. Definitive forecasts are a tough call there. 

I know there were a few people that maybe weren't forecasting Cat 4, but at least entertained the possibility. I tweeted on Monday that I thought landfall (then projected at 105 knots) was probably more likely to be + or - 15 knots. It looks like +15 was even too conservative. 

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's the thing, these GoM TCs can both quickly strengthen and weaken. Definitive forecasts are a tough call there. 

I know there were a few people that maybe weren't forecasting Cat 4, but at least entertained the possibility. I tweeted on Monday that I thought landfall (then projected at 105 knots) was probably more likely to be + or - 15 knots. It looks like +15 was even too conservative. 

What’s the reasons why there are so many uncertainties with intensities within the GoM? 

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