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Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????


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42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Rays gulf meh storms at LF might take a beating here. Mikey actually tightens ju#t before LF 940 to 950

I don't forecast model runs, which usually are biased intense at LF in the northern GOM, I forecast actual LF intensity.

100mph could be conservative...I'll make a final call later, hopefully after Sox clinch.

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t think that area of FL has ever taken a direct hit from a 3+ cane.

If we go since about 1940, I count 3 (Dennis 2005, Opal 1995, Eloise 1975) from Pensacola through the Big Bend region. If you are just talking Apalachicola or east to the Big Bend then there are none in that time period. 

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28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This might flirt briefly with a 5.   I thought even a 2 was unlikely three days ago.  

Much learnings I need to do...

I’ve become so intrigued with tropical intensity the last few months. I mean I know next to nothing but from the little I know (or guess I thought I knew) I thought it wouldn’t get this strong b/c if the dry air around and strong shear. Obviously that meant nothing. So I guess my questions to investigate would be; when does shear matter and when does dry air matter? 

Im just so curious as to what processes led to the incredible RI we’ve seen this evening 

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’ve become so intrigued with tropical intensity the last few months. I mean I know next to nothing but from the little I know (or guess I thought I knew) I thought it wouldn’t get this strong b/c if the dry air around and strong shear. Obviously that meant nothing. So I guess my questions to investigate would be; when does shear matter and when does dry air matter? 

Im just so curious as to what processes led to the incredible RI we’ve seen this evening 

They both matter. Dry air typically more mid levels, since updrafts would evaportively cool, downdraft, and choke off new development. But sometimes TC outflow can present as shear on model forecasts, so it’s not always cut and dry. Florence has this problem during its first RI. Shear looked unfavorable, but when you subtracted Florence out of the flow, shear was low. Almost like storm relative flow.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They both matter. Dry air typically more mid levels, since updrafts would evaportively cool, downdraft, and choke off new development. But sometimes TC outflow can present as shear on model forecasts, so it’s not always cut and dry. Florence has this problem during its first RI. Shear looked unfavorable, but when you subtracted Florence out of the flow, shear was low. Almost like storm relative flow.

This makes so much sense. I think WxWatcher007 mentioned similar about outflow from TC showing up as shear. 

So how would you go about doing that if you were to look at models? 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This makes so much sense. I think WxWatcher007 mentioned similar about outflow from TC showing up as shear. 

So how would you go about doing that if you were to look at models? 

It’s not easy. I’m not aware of any model forecast you can look at. Sometimes you can find a simulation on wx twitter.

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