Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England???????

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

12z GFS and EURO model runs show hints of a hybrid nor'easter of the remains of the tropical cyclone Michael in the western Caribbean Sea making its way into the area or close pass.  Discuss below!

[WinterWolf]

Might have wanted to wait a couple days to start this imo....by tomorrow or Tuesday this may look completely different, and not be even a remote issue.

 

Let’s see if the Euro shows something similar at 2 am??? 

[Hoth]

More interesting in Roosta land for sure. Still, we seem to have exploited every possible excuse for rain this summer, so why not add insult to injury with Michael. 

[WinterWolf]

Yes, winds are tough to come by here inland in SNE.  Need a near perfect set up for that to happen for most outside of the coast.  Some rain, some breezy conditions inland, that will most likely be the worst for most.  

 

Cape and islands might be a different story if Euro holds serve...but big IF?? 

[WinterWolf]

Yeah I’d bet on total Whiff at this stage....tropical doesn’t appear here to often. But doesn’t hurt to check in every couple days. 

[weatherwiz]

I think we'll get some pretty heavy rains as the remnants are captured by approaching trough/front. Where that axis sets-up though not entirely sure. Certainly a case where mesoscale features will likely play a major role. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2-4” of rain Thursday .. no wind ..then fall begins with 50’s and chilly nights 

[HoarfrostHubb]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2-4” of rain Thursday .. no wind ..then fall begins with 50’s and chilly nights 

That is a good summary as far as New England impacts.  Maybe ACKwaves can have some fun...

[ROOSTA]

9 hours ago, Hoth said:

More interesting in Roosta land for sure. Still, we seem to have exploited every possible excuse for rain this summer, so why not add insult to injury with Michael. 

Well I'm loaded for bear. Final inspection on the Generator today, full tank of propane. 1 yr start to finish! mostly my fault. Now have peace of mind. 

Michael "should" have only fringe effects this far E - brief fast moving squalls with occasional  gusts in the 30-40mph range. Subject to change of course, not liking the RI with a modeled slow down in movement. The interaction with a lifting trough, slackening of shear "should" keep track more toward the N and W.   
The effects as a mid-latitude cyclone tracking to the benchmark will be dependent on how intense and how long he holds on to tropical characteristics. Coastal winds for sure but the rain-shield will be far displaced to the N and E. Kind of a meh with rainfall QPF resulting from frontal boundary with some training.     

[wxeyeNH]

As far as New England I look at the tropical tidbits spaghetti models every 6 hours.  Try to see a trend.  Perhaps slightly further NW this morning.  In any event, the strong winds with a TS Michael would be l southeast of NE.  A brief period of heavy rain, some wind if the storm comes far enough NW.

More important is if the RI continues and Mike hits the panhandle as a major.  A few years ago we visited the newly developed coast from Destin Beach east to Panama City.  That stretch is comprised of new upscale beautiful communities like Miramar and Seaside.  Multi zillion dollar homes right on the dunes.  Restaurants, upscale boutique  25 miles of coastline barrier islands that were dunes and scrublands 20 years ago.  All new since the last major storm.  So much development.  This could be very bad if that stretch is right in the east eyewall.  Looks like it is close to ground zero.  

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

As far as New England I look at the tropical tidbits spaghetti models every 6 hours.  Try to see a trend.  Perhaps slightly further NW this morning.  In any event, the strong winds with a TS Michael would be l southeast of NE.  A brief period of heavy rain, some wind if the storm comes far enough NW.

More important is if the RI continues and Mike hits the panhandle as a major.  A few years ago we visited the newly developed coast from Destin Beach east to Panama City.  That stretch is comprised of new upscale beautiful communities like Miramar and Seaside.  Multi zillion dollar homes right on the dunes.  Restaurants, upscale boutique  25 miles of coastline barrier islands that were dunes and scrublands 20 years ago.  All new since the last major storm.  So much development.  This could be very bad if that stretch is right in the east eyewall.  Looks like it is close to ground zero.  

Every time a hole gets punched in the Panama City Beach wall of buildings, a new taller one gets put up in its place.  The last time I was down there in 2017, it was like night and day depending on which side you were on.  Brutal heat just like several miles inland where the sea breeze was blocked by the high rises and nice beach conditions with a cooling breeze on the sand.  I've been going there on and of for the last 20 years and my first trip  was over 30 years ago.  The changes are astounding.

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, Wiz. I’m leaning that way too. Euro is a major holdout but much of the overnight guidance tucked the low closer to the coast. 

Even if we aren't directly impacted from the remnants we are going to see a pretty impressive plume of moisture advect into the region.

 

Also, (And my knowledge of forecasting tropical is very little) but I can't see how Michael becomes a major hurricane. There is a ton of dry air in the Gulf per water vapor and tons of dry air over the southeastern US. It's just going to be ingesting dry air. I guess shear is supposed to relax some but it's pretty damn strong right now.  

[dryslot]

Should be more like a Nor easter if it even gets up here, Chances are better to the south in SNE as it heads off more NE as it gains lat up this way.

[Typhoon Tip]

"Is Tropical Storm Michael a threat to New England??????"

No

Though the possibility for "a threat" is never 0 ... the application of a very basic, rudimentary analytical approach ... oh, say (conventional wisdom+the panoply of technology)/2 ... implies such a low probability as to render this thread to an effective meaninglessness -

Now ... if the "off chanced" ~ 1.83 % ( as in, 'out of a hundred' ) somehow miraculously took place, such a fantasy would require a Michael entity crossing the western tip of Cuba, then skimming the eastern shores of Miami, before turning due N and careening all the way up to Montreal.  Such a course would require the TC move along a trajectory ... pretty much the mirror opposite of the present guidance that is provided by ....  ((conventional wisdom+the panoply of technology)+NHC's interpretation)/3 ...

The thread's sub-title verbiage is a puzzle to me... one might think that the words "remains" would stop a subsequent phrase usage,  "...hurricane force winds"  ? how does that leap get made 

 

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The thread's sub-title verbiage is a puzzle to me... one might think that the words "remains" would stop a subsequent phrase usage,  "...hurricane force winds"  ? how does that leap get made 

 

Hurricane force at 850mb. 

[Hoth]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

We've seen situations before where a system is organized enough where it is effectively able to keep lurking dry air at bay. The thing about this scenario is that you don't yet have a fully "mature" cyclone with a strong and well established core/outflow structure. That, and the usual trough interaction/interaction with the northern Gulf Coast are all potential inhibiting factors. 

That said, I'm not sure you completely disregard the guidance which shows continued significant deepening. Should this become a very strong and well organized system as it moves north I think that favors a major landfall. Intensity forecasting (as you know) is awfully difficult. 

Agree. Intensity is a bear to forecast. If Michael develops a robust inner core, it can protect itself from the dry air to a certain degree. And we've certainly seen storms that shrug off hostile environments and strengthen robustly. Joaquin and Matthew spring to mind in recent years. 

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't regret my professional path but it's times like this where I wish I had tried to get a met degree or had more time to specifically focus on tropical. I've been in awe of tropical cyclones for as long as I've been alive. There is always something to learn. 

For sure. Incidentally, Ryan Maue now thinking this could go to cat 4.

[WinterWolf]

Wow, Maue thinks Possible Cat 4 now?  I guess we’ll see???  I wouldn’t have thought that at all...but I know very little compared to Maue.

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow, Maue thinks Possible Cat 4 now?  I guess we’ll see???  I wouldn’t have thought that at all...but I know very little compared to Maue.

RI is tricky business.

Conditions will support it, but storms also tend to weaken before making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. So it's possible the official forecast is least likely (i.e. a Cat 2 or 4 is most likely).

[PowderBeard]

I'm all set with this one. I would love some downed trees for firewood next year but...

1. It's my name and hear it enough.

2. Just spent a lot of time getting water from the in-laws basement this weekend. All set with them getting more rain. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Not happening Jimmy.

[MJO812]

Legit possibility if it phases with the trough

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Legit possibility if it phases with the trough

Are you still pumping your basement from Florence?

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 hours ago, ROOSTA said:

Well I'm loaded for bear. Final inspection on the Generator today, full tank of propane. 1 yr start to finish! mostly my fault. Now have peace of mind. 

Michael "should" have only fringe effects this far E - brief fast moving squalls with occasional  gusts in the 30-40mph range. Subject to change of course, not liking the RI with a modeled slow down in movement. The interaction with a lifting trough, slackening of shear "should" keep track more toward the N and W.   
The effects as a mid-latitude cyclone tracking to the benchmark will be dependent on how intense and how long he holds on to tropical characteristics. Coastal winds for sure but the rain-shield will be far displaced to the N and E. Kind of a meh with rainfall QPF resulting from frontal boundary with some training.     

Spinups a small threat in your hood?

[Typhoon Tip]

There are no threats to New England just in case anyone's wondering -

If, however, track verification does something other than what is official at this time, we can discuss -

But, for the northern Gulf - ... I'm sure this has been mentioned but in the off chance that it has not.. NHC now assess Category 3 as likely intensity destined for the upper Florida coast.

I will say ... if somehow the trough 'captures' as others/ and some previous runs hinted more proficiently, than the deflection out to sea so far S may not be the case.  That said, this system will pass over a lot of land for a long time... whatever does get ejected back seaward, whether near the VA Capes or further up the way...it's a mangled paltry mess

[weathafella]

“Models have recently swung Michael through the area wth heavy rain and hurricane force winds.” 

 

James, leaving out the last 4 words would have done wonders for your credibility vs the opposite effect.

[Typhoon Tip]

Also, as an after though (and perhaps much to the chagrin of Weatherwiz's devious attempt to defame Michael ) ... there is a climatological precedence for RI in the vicinity of the Gulf...well, pretty much anywhere in the Gulf... but in particular, Camille and Katrina and so forth...showed RI passing over this so-dubbed "loop current" region, where the oceanic heat content is rather large -

This system may have to contend with a little dry air contamination ... as well as shear stressing in the short term,  but both those can be alleviated in shorter order over a two day span, and Cat 3 ... haven't yet read their philosophy for that prediction but Category 3 is a major deal as it is -

[wxeyeNH]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

RI is tricky business.

Conditions will support it, but storms also tend to weaken before making landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. So it's possible the official forecast is least likely (i.e. a Cat 2 or 4 is most likely).

My last hurricane chase was Katrina.  It was a Cat 5 in the Gulf but weakened to a Cat 3 as it approached land.   I flew down to Pensacola 2 days before landfall.  My goal was to reposition as landfall approached.   I chickened out thinking of the old pictures of Camille and storm surge so I stayed in Pensacola and only experienced TS winds.    

[MJOatleast7]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also, as an after though (and perhaps much to the chagrin of Weatherwiz's devious attempt to defame Michael ) ... there is a climatological precedence for RI in the vicinity of the Gulf...well, pretty much anywhere in the Gulf... but in particular, Camille and Katrina and so forth...showed RI passing over this so-dubbed "loop current" region, where the oceanic heat content is rather large -

This system may have to contend with a little dry air contamination ... as well as shear stressing in the short term,  but both those can be alleviated in shorter order over a two day span, and Cat 3 ... haven't yet read their philosophy for that prediction but Category 3 is a major deal as it is -

Was confused for a minute, then oh yeah..."RI means Rapid Intensification", not "Rhode Island"...my bad 

[40/70 Benchmark]

It will end up a 2, at worse, at landfall. Perfect scenario for a North Gulf coast collapser.

Not that interested-