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Hurricane Michael

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21 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said:

Looks like NWS Tallahassee  is extremely concerned:

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL142018
1143 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 /1043 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

***MICHAEL COULD DEVELOP INTO A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE 
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST***

CAE NWS just added "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" to our forecast Wednesday Night into Thursday

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23 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said:

Looks like NWS Tallahassee  is extremely concerned:

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL142018
1143 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 /1043 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

***MICHAEL COULD DEVELOP INTO A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE 
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST***

Its been a while since a strong organized hurricane has barreled inland bringing very high winds far inland.....and the insane rainfalls of the last few big storms has overshadowed the wind impact....if Mike comes in as a 120ish Cat 3 and accelerating off the the NE quickly there will be plenty of significant hurricane force winds well inland especially along and east of track. This will extend well into GA and even potentially depending on a several factors be capable of producing winds to 50-75 mph the entire time its over land.....

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8 minutes ago, lj0109 said:

12Z Euro up to Hour 102:

12zaecmwf_michael.png

Right over me.....caves to the GFS a bit......now the question for many of us up here still is going to be what kind of winds will this produce up in eastern and central SC/NC.....so many houses with tarps on roofs and leaning trees.....they might handle 40-45 mph gust for a few hrs but 60-75 mph gust even for a few hrs would be a issue for a lot of people and power outages would be widespread and half the power lines in eastern NC are brand new lol.....the folks in Fl and GA are gonna get hammered for sure.

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Looks like I picked a good week to be on vacation in France!  Looks potentially very bad for Tallahassee, though!  A lot stronger than Hermine, though at least Hermine already knocked down a lot of the weaker trees.  It does look like the more recent modeling takes the worst impacts west of Tallahassee, though there’s obviously plenty of time for that to change, for better or worse.

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Euro has it moving from Macon GA to Florence,SC in close to 12 hours,275 miles distance.Euro has a 983 low there at 84.

Basically you have a strong 983 low moving close to 25mph,someone better start tying things down if its right.

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14 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I think Micheal is going to come in further east... Models aren't seeing that mini disturbance in the Bahamas that is going to tug on the hurricane imo

Can you show me an example of this disturbance? I'm having a hard time seeing it on models.

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Surprised I haven't seen some facebook picture showing the 12z Nam 3k yet.... That would be epic destruction. 

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Looks like the RAH area will be mostly outside looking in (for now) Storm speed will

determine rainfall amounts.

 

The main story continues to be the remnants of Michael which remain 
forecast to cross NC on Thursday.  Prior to Michael's crossing, the 
area of cloudiness and rain currently just east of the Bahamas is 
progged to move to the northwest and overspread the Carolinas 
Wednesday and Wednesday night, providing some rain, but generally 
less than 1 inch QPF. Then conditions will deteriorate on Thursday 
as Michael moves NE across the Carolinas.  It's worth noting that 
the GFS and ECMWF are fairly similar with timing until it reaches 
SC.  Then the two models begin to diverge with regard to forward 
speed as it crosses NC. The ECMWF slows down over NC, while the GFS 
quickly ejects the system northeastward and off the coast.  The 
slower ECMWF has notably more QPF for central NC versus the GFS. 
That said, our confidence remains low regarding the flooding 
potential, as our rivers can handle and inch or two of QPF that the 
GFS is producing, while 6 or more inches of rain that the ECMWF is 
suggesting would likely result in some renewed river flooding. 
Otherwise, right now we have wind gusts peaking around 35 mph 
(mainly south and east of Raleigh) as the system moves across on 
Thursday, which with a wet ground could possibly blow over any trees 
that are already leaning or that were weakened during Florence. Stay 
tuned!  

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1 hour ago, WintersNotComing said:

Can you show me an example of this disturbance? I'm having a hard time seeing it on models.

Would if I could, but only can upload .02MB...

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2 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro has it moving from Macon GA to Florence,SC in close to 12 hours,275 miles distance.Euro has a 983 low there at 84.

Basically you have a strong 983 low moving close to 25mph,someone better start tying things down if its right.

I currently live around Macon, GA, should we be worried about anything besides a little wind and some heavy rain?

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The longer term issues remain centered around the eventual
track and speed of Hurricane Michael after it makes landfall
somewhere along the Florida Gulf coast. Current NHC track
brings the system towards the cwa Wednesday night, then across
the area on Thursday, exiting the northeastern counties by
Thursday evening. The center of circulation right now is
forecast to come through the central CSRA and Midlands. Areas
east of the center will have an isolated tornado threat as the
system moves through. Winds will be on the increase Wednesday
night as the system approaches, and should be rather gusty on
Thursday, especially over the central and eastern counties,
based on current track. Sustained winds may remain below
Tropical Storm criteria, but wind gusts may approach or exceed
the criteria. Can not rule out the need for Tropical Storm
watches at some point in the future, but confidence remains low
at this time for meeting criteria. Heavy rainfall will also be
an issue as Michael moves through Wednesday night through
Thursday, and some flooding/flash flooding may occur.

 

 

In other words "we don't know yet"... I seriously think they should at least put up Tropical Storm Watches just to be on the safe side.

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16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS is a little West! Probably taking out some trees in CLT, on that path!

40-45mph gusts from Columbia to West CLT

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48 minutes ago, pdw said:

I currently live around Macon, GA, should we be worried about anything besides a little wind and some heavy rain?

Depending on the banding location, there is always the possibility of quick spin-up tornadoes.

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4 hours ago, WintersNotComing said:

Euro looks more aligned with FV3. Strong wind gusts shown all the way into the Carolinas. Looks like impacts in the midlands could be worse than Florence.

ecmwf_max_gust_se_90.png

Oh my, bad, bad, & MORE "Breaking Bad" for SENC..   What, (trees) #Florence didn't Finish off.. Mikey Will.. ;) Many are back in Full "SPRING" bloom.. AND WEAK.. not counting the ground Saturation.. Still in place.. 4~6 inches of Rain,, ???

Flooding all over again.. 

rainfall.png

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2 hours ago, pdw said:

I currently live around Macon, GA, should we be worried about anything besides a little wind and some heavy rain?

PDW,

I'm in Macon. Welcome !

A 983mb Low will mean, at a minimum, very high Tropical Storm force winds for sure for the heart of Georgia.  Rain not so much a concern,(super dry here) as it is fast moving, but we could still see 3-6".  The track, wherever it winds up, 50 miles east or 50 miles west of us will mean significant difference in the winds.  Euro track has came west, closer to what the GFS has been saying, so being 72hrs out I think we have much to concern ourselves with as it pertains to winds.

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Pressure down to 967.8

 

Damn...

Winds up to 85mph at the 8PM update. Michael continues to organize this evening. 

 

30 minutes ago, Shack said:

PDW,

I'm in Macon. Welcome !

A 983mb Low will mean, at a minimum, very high Tropical Storm force winds for sure for the heart of Georgia.  Rain not so much a concern,(super dry here) as it is fast moving, but we could still see 3-6".  The track, wherever it winds up, 50 miles east or 50 miles west of us will mean significant difference in the winds.  Euro track has came west, closer to what the GFS has been saying, so being 72hrs out I think we have much to concern ourselves with as it pertains to winds.

Yep watching closely here in Macon as well. Last year, Irma brought wind gusts in the 50-55mph range and brought quite a few trees down in residential areas. Looks like this could rival or maybe even surpass that depending on the track. Definitely going to be an interesting few days.

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1 hour ago, Shack said:

PDW,

I'm in Macon. Welcome !

A 983mb Low will mean, at a minimum, very high Tropical Storm force winds for sure for the heart of Georgia.  Rain not so much a concern,(super dry here) as it is fast moving, but we could still see 3-6".  The track, wherever it winds up, 50 miles east or 50 miles west of us will mean significant difference in the winds.  Euro track has came west, closer to what the GFS has been saying, so being 72hrs out I think we have much to concern ourselves with as it pertains to winds.

I actually live in Lizella but it is easier just telling people Macon, GA since most people have heard of it.  We learned our lesson with Irma and bought a whole house generator earlier this year so will have power.  We lost power for about 5 or 6 days last year.  Thank you for the information. I believe in preparing for the worst and hoping for the best!

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