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Solak

Hurricane Michael

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Just a question how effective are the 850 winds at filtering down to the surface in a extra tropical scenario vs a normal tropical cyclone? Looking at the 10m winds it doesn't seem like many are getting to the surface. But obviously wouldn't take much. 

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8 minutes ago, Snovary said:

Just a question how effective are the 850 winds at filtering down to the surface in a extra tropical scenario vs a normal tropical cyclone? Looking at the 10m winds it doesn't seem like many are getting to the surface. But obviously wouldn't take much. 

925 is more of what you're looking for. 

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6 minutes ago, Snovary said:

Just a question how effective are the 850 winds at filtering down to the surface in a extra tropical scenario vs a normal tropical cyclone? Looking at the 10m winds it doesn't seem like many are getting to the surface. But obviously wouldn't take much. 

It is the transition from tropical to extra-tropical that brings those 850's down.  In certain cases it can be near 100% effective in bringing down those winds.   10m wind maps are the sustained speeds.  This setup will not bring high sustained speeds. Rather it will bring very sudden and high gusts. So if HRRR is right some areas will be sustained 30-40mph winds but gusts 70-80mph.  This is likely overdone.

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9 minutes ago, Snovary said:

Just a question how effective are the 850 winds at filtering down to the surface in a extra tropical scenario vs a normal tropical cyclone? Looking at the 10m winds it doesn't seem like many are getting to the surface. But obviously wouldn't take much. 

Better to look at 925 MB winds they are the ones that will get mixed down....850's are 4-5k ft up versus 1500-2000 ft up on the 925mb....

 

ninja'd lol

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15 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

It has before but no. That is the same time each image. Its the HRRR trend not a progressive run.  So instead of 991mb the HRRR shows 989 at the same hour.

Darn it!  Should have caught that and did not pay attention. 

Going to have my coffee now.

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24 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah its hard to believe the high res. But lets check into their verification.  So far the 06z HRRR run has verified in most places with its wind gusts within 5-10mph.

Something else I have noticed in the past with the HRRR is that it usually locks in rather firmly in the 8-10 hour mark.  And that normally happens by way of a big trend in the 14-8 hour range. 

 

Here is the latest 5 runs of the HRRR:

trend.thumb.GIF.3e475b49aef1980ac7c7a94a992ab5a5.GIF

 

We will see what comes of this. But that is a very obvious and large trend back to some impressive wind gusts.

From what I can see, and correct me if I'm wrong, The losest 100 mb on the latest HRRR sounding goes Dry Adiabatic on the backside of Michael allowing 50+ kt wind gusts to mix to the surface.

image.thumb.png.b5643405d8afa09ffa16b9832067313c.png

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Panovich finally “kinda” sounding the alarm for winds. Says possibly 50mph gusts. 3-5pm cor CLT.

Same time my kid will be coming home on a school bus. (Her school isn’t closed ) Might pick her up early depending on how this starts to play out. Riding through Charlotte with heavy winds is sketchy on an average day with the dying tree canopy.

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4 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

From what I can see, and correct me if I'm wrong, The losest 100 mb on the latest HRRR sounding goes Dry Adiabatic on the backside of Michael allowing 50+ kt wind gusts to mix to the surface.

image.thumb.png.b5643405d8afa09ffa16b9832067313c.png

Seems likely. As the storm opens up and starts going extra tropical this filter dry air into the lower atmosphere.  Allowing for what the HRRR shows.

The question is how efficient will it be at pulling those upper winds to the surface?

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15 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

From what I can see, and correct me if I'm wrong, The losest 100 mb on the latest HRRR sounding goes Dry Adiabatic on the backside of Michael allowing 50+ kt wind gusts to mix to the surface.

image.thumb.png.b5643405d8afa09ffa16b9832067313c.png

Check out this one.  

1786762857_dryair.thumb.png.cdbca4fae6b1256a684191c048ddb4cd.png

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Considering we have already have 30 mph gusts here and our max was supposed to be 30-35 I fully expect these maps to get close to what they’re modeling.  We blew by what Mets said with Flo and were darn close to the models.  And as I mentioned yesterday, we had almost no rain when we had max winds with Flo.  This will be after almost all the rain has fallen that these winds come through.  Could get very ugly.  

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Just now, GunBlade said:

Considering we have already had 30 mph gusts here and our max was supposed to be 30-35 I fully expect these maps to get close to what they’re modeling.  We blew by what Mets said with Flo and were darn close to the models.  And as I mentioned yesterday, we had almost no rain when we had max winds with Flo.  This will be after almost all the rain has fallen that these winds come through.  Could get very ugly.  

HRRR gets the winds going first within the next hour and indeed we are seeing 40mph gusts now at  the nc/sc border.  zirconia had a 42mph gust a few minutes ago 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=D1971&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

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1 minute ago, Lookout said:

HRRR gets the winds going first within the next hour and indeed we are seeing 40mph gusts now at  the nc/sc border.  zirconia had a 42mph gust a few minutes ago 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=D1971&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

the question is how high do the gusts go?  I am highly suspicious of 80mph gusts somewhere.  But I guess from a theoretical standpoint if we see 95-100% of the winds mix down its not out of the question...

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11 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

the question is how high do the gusts go?  I am highly suspicious of 80mph gusts somewhere.  But I guess from a theoretical standpoint if we see 95-100% of the winds mix down its not out of the question...

I'd be surprised too...but as others have noted, even a conservative 10 to 20% reduction is still significant. Almost on cue, winds are increasing also in rabun county...clayton is sustained at 24g37 and tallulah is gusting to 40. Right where and when the hrrr shows it starting. 

zirconia now 23 g to 44. travelers rest up to 35. 

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10 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I'd be surprised too...but as others have noted, even a conservative 10 to 20% reduction is still significant. Almost on cue, winds are increasing also in rabun county...clayton is sustained at 24g37 and tallulah is gusting to 40. Right where and when the hrrr shows it starting. 

zirconia now 23 g to 44. travelers rest up to 35. 

You can watch it on radar too.  Seeing some 55mph on radar in that area. Slowly building just like HRRR. The rapid explosion of winds happens between 11-1pm for areas west of CLT. We will see if that verifies

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This thing is going to be way, way worse for the mountains, northern piedmont, and triad if the HRRR verifies. With all of the rain they've already gotten, especially in the mountains, there's going to be a nasty mix of flooding, downed trees/power lines, and likely mudslides.

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Gonna be bad if the HRRR is right....these gust are going to be more vertical and violent as hell....the thing is the band will be narrow you will have a few hrs of 30-40 mph gust then maybe 1-2 hrs of intense wind then 20-30 type gust on the backside of the band.....

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