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Hurricane Michael


Solak
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11 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Danny_(1997)

Due to a front behind the system, Danny unusually strengthened to a tropical storm over North Carolina on July 24. This rare phenomenon occurred due to interaction with a developing trough and its associated baroclinic zone.[1][2] Danny entered the Atlantic Ocean, north of the North Carolina-Virginia border, near Virginia Beach. It quickly reached a secondary peak of 60 miles per hour (100 km/h), and continued rapidly northeastward towards the waters of the Atlantic.

good post,

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There big difference here in central NC this time around is we got all the wind with Florence BEFORE most of the rain.  When the heaviest rain moved on there wasn’t almost no wind.  This time we’ve already had over an inch today, and will have inches more before these potentially strong winds move in.  That’s a completely different scenario.  I’m just thankful the worst will be mainly during the day and not the middle of the night with people and kids sleeping in rooms with no idea.  A house a cpl miles away had a tree fall on what would normally be the kids rooms with Florence, before we got rain, and luckily they were prepared and sleeping in other rooms.  That’s the scary part about these to me.  People can live without power especially with the cooler temps this time around.  

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57 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The main forum thread is ugh.....I am glad for the most part the folks in this sub forum are smart enough to avoid most of that crap....

This is a smart move for now....and it better than what they had yesterday lol...

it seems Michael isn't the only disaster today. 

2 minutes ago, SENC said:

Lordy, what Weenies, & groupthink I called a decent Cat 2 based on buoy Data sets.. & video obs.. 

dude, get real. you are lucky you aren't getting a time out but if you keep up this nonsense you will. 

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17 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Danny_(1997)

Due to a front behind the system, Danny unusually strengthened to a tropical storm over North Carolina on July 24. This rare phenomenon occurred due to interaction with a developing trough and its associated baroclinic zone.[1][2] Danny entered the Atlantic Ocean, north of the North Carolina-Virginia border, near Virginia Beach. It quickly reached a secondary peak of 60 miles per hour (100 km/h), and continued rapidly northeastward towards the waters of the Atlantic.

Drive through that hurricane on the way to Currituck for vacation.  Didn’t know those facts though.  Was fairly young.  Very cool. 

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

it seems Michael isn't the only disaster today. 

dude, get real. you are lucky you aren't getting a time out but if you keep up this nonsense you will. 

Gotcha @Lookout, I'll keep my opinions to myself.. TIA for the warning.. 

MeanWhile "sustained" 24MPH SE Winds) here on the beach..

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Just now, GunBlade said:

There big difference here in central NC this time around is we got all the wind with Florence BEFORE most of the rain.  When the heaviest rain moved on there wasn’t almost no wind.  This time we’ve already had over an inch today, and will have inches more before these potentially strong winds move in.  That’s a completely different scenario.  I’m just thankful the worst will be mainly during the day and not the middle of the night with people and kids sleeping in rooms with no idea.  A house a cpl miles away had a tree fall on what would normally be the kids rooms with Florence, before we got rain, and luckily they were prepared and sleeping in other rooms.  That’s the scary part about these to me.  People can live without power especially with the cooler temps this time around.  

Also IF the west side wind band develops the wind gust will be violent and the peak gust sudden....more top down than side to side type gust as they are mixing down....they will also be much higher than the background gust, you will get a a good 30-40 sec gust to maybe 40 mph then the peak will hit suddenly ramping up to 60-75....if those types of winds do verify I agree lots of trees onto houses. 

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Well the trend on the HRRR is to form the west side band sooner and further southwest...I am assuming it drags this band east to the coast like the 18Z run...inbetween the 00,06,12,18 the HRRR only runs 18 hrs. those runs are just now getting into range...the real question is how accurate is this even if its 10-20 mph to fast thats still 50-60 mph widespread gust....basically everywhere you see blue is hurricane force gust....

gust_t610m_f18.thumb.png.2179dc84519a4c2743bfcabd14fdece3.png

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Well the trend on the HRRR is to form the west side band sooner and further southwest...I am assuming it drags this band east to the coast like the 18Z run...inbetween the 00,06,12,18 the HRRR only runs 18 hrs. those runs are just now getting into range...the real question is how accurate is this even if its 10-20 mph to fast thats still 50-60 mph widespread gust....basically everywhere you see blue is hurricane force gust....

 

blues right over MBY, goes along with what 3k NAM is showing. Generator is ready, just in case.

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19 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Well the trend on the HRRR is to form the west side band sooner and further southwest...I am assuming it drags this band east to the coast like the 18Z run...inbetween the 00,06,12,18 the HRRR only runs 18 hrs. those runs are just now getting into range...the real question is how accurate is this even if its 10-20 mph to fast thats still 50-60 mph widespread gust....basically everywhere you see blue is hurricane force gust....

gust_t610m_f18.thumb.png.2179dc84519a4c2743bfcabd14fdece3.png

That's hurricane force winds over my backyard. That can't happen .... can it? 

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5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

That's hurricane force winds over my backyard. That can't happen .... can it? 

I dunno, seems like it over done probably IMO, but again even if it is overdone by say 10-20 mph its still 40-60 mph gust, hell when the band gets to central NC to east it has some 70-80 KNT pixel in it thats pushing  100 mph and we all know thats gotta be wrong....but it is a unique setup I am sure all the local NWS office hate seeing that output on almost all of the hi res models.....

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15 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

That's hurricane force winds over my backyard. That can't happen .... can it? 

I’d say it’s “possible” from a theoretical standpoint.  But it’s probably in the 95 percentile. Would have to get near perfection out of the enhancement and dry air filtering winds down to do that... but it is possible.

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5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

I’d say it’s “possible” from a physical standpoint.  But it’s probably in the 95 percentile. Would have to get near perfection out of the enhancement and dry air filtering winds down to do that... but it is possible.

yeah the 00Z HRRR has 70-90 mph gust from I 77 east...obviously overdone.....the question is by how much.....like you pointed out it would take all the stars aligning to pull that kind of wind off,  but again this setup hasnt really ever happened before ( or at least not in the last 100 or so years) so maybe this is that 95th percentile event....we will know in about 15 hrs if the winds forecast start to happen out west. 

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

yeah the 00Z HRRR has 70-90 mph gust from I 77 east...obviously overdone.....the question is by how much.....like you pointed out it would take all the stars aligning to pull that kind of wind off,  but again this setup hasnt really ever happened before ( or at least not in the last 100 or so years) so maybe this is that 95th percentile event....we will know in about 15 hrs if the winds forecast start to happen out west. 

Yeah very hard to say.  But I’d say there is a shot at some big time gusts tmrw.  This storm is on another level than normal as far as intensity. It’s very possible for some residual 80-90knt 850mb winds to filter down almost 100% when the dry air filters in.  

 

Setup is there. But stars would have to align.  

 

 

The HRRR has enhancement started 14z tmrw so 10am? That’s the time to watch for verification. That and of course current run to run trends.

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3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Yeah very hard to say.  But I’d say there is a shot at some big time gusts tmrw.  This storm is on another level than normal as far as intensity. It’s very possible for some residual 80-90knt 850mb winds to filter down almost 100% when the dry air filters in.  

 

Setup is there. But stars would have to align.  

 

 

The HRRR has enhancement started 14z tmrw so 10am? That’s the time to watch for verification. That and of course current run to run trends.

And when you get run to run consistency  from the HRRR, 9 times out of ten, it is going to be approximately correct. That probably means "only" gusts in the 40-60 mph range, but it's something which we wouldn't even be considering if it weren't for hires models.

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

And when you get run to run consistency  from the HRRR, 9 times out of ten, it is going to be approximately correct. That probably means "only" gusts in the 40-60 mph range, but it's something which we wouldn't even be considering if it weren't for hires models.

For what it’s worth the 12, 18, and 00z hrrr run have all had this type of gusts (70-80 and even 90mph on 00z)  00z being the most agrressive.   You can probably shave those gusts down to 60-70 mph. As a general rule I usually reduce those gust maps a little.

 

 

Now the normal 18hr runs are getting into range. 

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1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said:

For what it’s worth the 12, 18, and 00z hrrr run have all had this type of gusts (70-80 and even 90mph on 00z)  00z being the most agrressive.   You can probably shave those gusts down to 60-70 mph. As a general rule I usually reduce those gust maps a little.

 

 

Now the normal 18hr runs are getting into range. 

Yeah, it's a little out of it's range though. If it sticks to it's guns through 6z, then I'm all in for 60-70 ( east of the triad anyway).

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2 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Agreed. A gulf landfalling storm potentially causing TS winds around these parts is a scenario I never even thought of. Whatever happens, we'll likely remember tracking this one for a looong time.

It’s actually not unusual to have a Gulf landfalling hurricane impact upstate SC. 10 years ago when I worked for Greenville County we were working on our Hazard Vulnerabilty Assessment and we looked at the impacts of hurricanes on the upstate.  Using historical data from the NWS we studied every named tropical system that had passed within 50 miles of downtown Greenville, SC.  Amazingly almost all were from Gulf landfalling hurricanes.  Very few were Atlantic landfalling hurricanes.  That probably does not hold true for NC but for the upstate of SC, Gulf hurricanes have presented the greatest threat.  Of course, to your point, I would bet few if any were still TS when they passed near Greenville. 

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One thing has begun to stand out to me over the past year or two is the number of times that the following statements ended up being false despite experience and climatology arguing for their truth.

1. That is clearly overdone.

2. 35" of rain? The model is on crack.

3. No way. That hasn't happened since records have been kept.

Strange things happen. It seems to be more and more. Even as I type this the NHC has just released Forecast Discussion #57  on hurricane Leslie. Now I'm sure 57 discussions isn't a record but it might be getting close. especially since Leslie is forecasted to move toward Africa for the next three days and then turn SW over the weekend to a position north of the Cape Verde Islands. It seems Leslie wants a do-over.
 

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