Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Hurricane Michael


Solak
 Share

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, Lookout said:

 12z euro has come north a little on the 12z run...in particular over the carolinas.  

Keeps 50-70 mph winds all the way through from SC to offshore NC as well and covers a large area with those winds to boot.....this is more believable to me than the GFS maps since the GFS had the pressure at 970 and winds around 90-100 at landfall, and well that was really off lol...the hard part for forecasters is to predict how the trough/ jet streak will interact with the strong circulation and low pressure of Mike....there is really no precedent for this in the analogs etc.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Lookout said:

 12z euro has come north a little on the 12z run...in particular over the carolinas.  

I'm curious to as to how strong winds will get for the Carolina's, especially along and east of I-85. Looks like you are going to get some pretty significant gusts as well. I'm in Union County, NC which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

I'm curious to as to how strong winds will get for the Carolina's, especially along and east of I-85. Looks like you are going to get some pretty significant gusts as well. I'm in Union County, NC which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. 

i've been weary of any sig winds near clt but with the RI as it made landfall and the insanely impressive eyewall structure even as it is completely over land...this will catch a lot of people off guard.  goodness.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

I'm curious to as to how strong winds will get for the Carolina's, especially along and east of I-85. Looks like you are going to get some pretty significant gusts as well. I'm in Union County, NC which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. 

 

DpKofPqW0AEHFt3.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Jeez. I know the Euro wind maps can be unreliable, but this has me a little concerned. Looks like a CLT-RDU "inland special" This shows gusts to near 70mph. I'd imagine trees will be coming down left and right along with numerous outages.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Keeps 50-70 mph winds all the way through from SC to offshore NC as well and covers a large area with those winds to boot.....this is more believable to me than the GFS maps since the GFS had the pressure at 970 and winds around 90-100 at landfall, and well that was really off lol...the hard part for forecasters is to predict how the trough/ jet streak will interact with the strong circulation and low pressure of Mike....there is really no precedent for this in the analogs etc.....

There  is excellent model agreement now. Every model has shown  these winds increasing over nc/sc, including the wrf/hmon.  The shear amount of real estate that could see 50 to 70mph wind gusts  is incredible. 

17 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

I'm curious to as to how strong winds will get for the Carolina's, especially along and east of I-85. Looks like you are going to get some pretty significant gusts as well. I'm in Union County, NC which is under a Tropical Storm Warning. 

Right now, it seems likely to get 45 to 55 based on the hrrr/3km nam....but as downeast says, this forecasts are based on models that don't have a good handle on just how deep/strong michael is currently so it could be a bit higher but i hope not. HRRR is showing gusts of 70 to 80mph all the way into sc alone and based on the storm being 967mb now  I really don't want the power to go out because if it does, it could be out a while. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

There  is excellent model agreement now. Every model has shown  these winds increasing over nc/sc, including the wrf/hmon.  The shear amount of real estate that could see 50 to 70mph wind gusts  is incredible. 

Right now, it seems likely to get 45 to 55 based on the hrrr/3km nam....but as downeast says, this forecasts are based on models that don't have a good handle on just how deep/strong michael is currently so it could be a bit higher but i hope not. HRRR is showing gusts of 70 to 80mph all the way into sc alone and based on the storm being 967mb now  I really don't want the power to go out because if it does, it could be out a while. 

Yeah the number of people without power will end up in the 5-10 million range at least....if it amps up inland and hits ATL/CLT/RDU and east then that number could double.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something to keep in mind is there will be dry air intrusion going on with the arrival of the front on the west side of Michael. That could help mix down stronger winds to the surface. The latest runs of the NAM 3km and the 12z HRRR picked up on that nicely. Also the NWS RAH mentioned that as well in their latest briefing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GSP has nice AFD on Michael

In terms of the winds, being that Michael has made landfall as a
category four storm, there is some concern that the traditional
model guidance may be spinning the storm down too quickly, thus
under-doing the inland winds. This is always a very tough forecast,
and the Tropical Storm Warning that was issued earlier for our
southern tier of zones was mainly done to accommodate the tropical
storm wind probability info from NHC. The other wind-related concern
is the potential for hybrid convective gusts associated with any
intense rain bands, which could easily produce occasional 50 mph (or
greater) winds. Thus, while our official forecast doesn`t really
support the headlines, the uncertainty regarding the intensity of
the cyclone and the potential for occasional higher end wind gusts
warrants continuation of the Tropical Storm Warning.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Take a peak at the WRF. Brings 50 to 55k sustained winds through SC/NC. That's not including gusts lol. The SFC low starts to strengthen as it hits NC and becomes more extratropical in nature. This will be a WILD 24 hours. Buckle up SE folks. We're witnessing history today/tomorrow.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Take a peak at the WRF. Brings 50 to 55k sustained winds through SC/NC. That's not including gusts lol. The SFC low starts to strengthen as it hits NC and becomes more extratropical in nature. This will be a WILD 24 hours. Buckle up SE folks. We're witnessing history today/tomorrow.

HKY,

State wide or more central/eastern?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Lookout said:

There  is excellent model agreement now. Every model has shown  these winds increasing over nc/sc, including the wrf/hmon.  The shear amount of real estate that could see 50 to 70mph wind gusts  is incredible. 

Right now, it seems likely to get 45 to 55 based on the hrrr/3km nam....but as downeast says, this forecasts are based on models that don't have a good handle on just how deep/strong michael is currently so it could be a bit higher but i hope not. HRRR is showing gusts of 70 to 80mph all the way into sc alone and based on the storm being 967mb now  I really don't want the power to go out because if it does, it could be out a while. 

It's almost scary how much agreement there is with all the models. What's even scarier is the fact that people seem to be underprepared this go around. With Florence, people stalked up a week in advance. I feel like a lot of news outlets are downplaying the wind threat and that's going to catch a lot of people off guard. 

 

Even 45-55 will do some damage. I've already seen over an inch of rain and there is a lot more coming per radar. And that isn't from Michael. Trees will be coming down like crazy. Seeing how close CLT is to SC and the center, it's a bit worrisome. I would imagine this extends to RDU as well. Lot's of people are in the path of this storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

This thing is going to go into Ga. with a clear eye........

It’s also west of expected.  This could be a bigger problem close to ATL than orginally thought although it could still hard hook NE overnight.   Given the winds will be NE though and it’s at night I’m not sure effective mixing down will occur  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I think the western portion of the state will get in the game due to the approaching HP and the resultant pressure gradient. Additionally, the elevation is higher.

I recall those pressure gradient winds being significant with Hurricane Floyd; it closed down the Mtn State Fair for a day due to tents blowing down; a totally clear day too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Take a peak at the WRF. Brings 50 to 55k sustained winds through SC/NC. That's not including gusts lol. The SFC low starts to strengthen as it hits NC and becomes more extratropical in nature. This will be a WILD 24 hours. Buckle up SE folks. We're witnessing history today/tomorrow.

This hrrr map is one of the more unique maps i've seen...going to be a wall of high winds crossing the carolinas. Showing as high as 75 knots in places. crazy. 

Saw quite a bit of sun here this afternoon..so tornado threat has certainly increased. Going to have to watch these storms over ga closely. 

HRRRMA_sfc_gust_027.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tropical Storm warning inbound for all of RAH area...if I understand the discussion correctly.

 

 Winds just aloft
around the broad center of the storm will remain quite strong, with
model projections showing 40-60 kts at 925 mb on either side of the
center. And forecast soundings as well as model cross sections
indicate sufficient low level mixing just behind the center, as the
drier air dives in behind the departing storm, for a focused,
particularly intense band of winds from the N. Will monitor for this
potential closely through tomorrow. Irrespective of this occurrence,
the potential gusts within this still-tropical cyclone warrant an
areal expansion of the tropical storm warning, and this will take
place after the next NHC forecast package is issued, barring any
major track change (path or speed).
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Take a peak at the WRF. Brings 50 to 55k sustained winds through SC/NC. That's not including gusts lol. The SFC low starts to strengthen as it hits NC and becomes more extratropical in nature. This will be a WILD 24 hours. Buckle up SE folks. We're witnessing history today/tomorrow.

I think your right, there is just nothing to base expectations on historically so this is a for real seat of your pants forecast for most local NWS offices.....I am sure their instinct is to ignore the growing model consensus that this storm will basically be a hurricane or hybrid/hurricane all the way till it exist the NC coast, there just isnt a precedent for it really and it would be tough for them to call for 60-80 mph winds cause if it bust they will never hear the end of it......so I feel for the local NWS folks cause if they keep their call for 35-40 mph gust which wont impact much and keep the lights on etc and places end up gusting 60-80 and most of the state is in the dark folks gonna give them a hard time....

School is letting out at noon tomorrow and say there will be "at least" a 2hr delay Friday morning

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAH acknowledging the models showing that band of really intense wind on the backside of the center

While the surface wind field will have weakened from
its current hurricane status, this is a powerful storm with a lot of
energy, and the storm`s swift movement will allow far too little
time for significant dissipation of this energy. Winds just aloft
around the broad center of the storm will remain quite strong, with
model projections showing 40-60 kts at 925 mb on either side of the
center. And forecast soundings as well as model cross sections
indicate sufficient low level mixing just behind the center, as the
drier air dives in behind the departing storm, for a focused,
particularly intense band of winds from the N. Will monitor for this
potential closely through tomorrow. Irrespective of this occurrence,
the potential gusts within this still-tropical cyclone warrant an
areal expansion of the tropical storm warning, and this will take
place after the next NHC forecast package is issued, barring any
major track change (path or speed)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CLTwx said:

So we've got HRRR, NAM and Euro all showing some derivative of this if I recall....I85 from ATL-RAL....

Things certainly seem to be coming together for a widespread wind event for the I-85 corridor from ATL-RDU. I wish more of the local mets would at least mention this possibility. I LOVE Brad P. but he is still going with gusts to maybe 35 maybe 40. He just doesn't want to budge on his forecast. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, maybe Brad isn’t going off the warning just being placed in Wake. Did I read that right?  The RAH discussion suggested they are watching for potentials for higher gusts. 

 

I havent seen any uodates by him by him on twitter regarding winds. Only early this morning on his video. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...