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Hurricane Michael


Solak
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6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Agreed and understand.  However, across central NC we usually see 25-35mph gusts from significant tropical systems that pass thru.  So we get, 35-50 this time, big deal.  It's still thunderstorm type activity which can lead to downed trees and power lines.  That's really my point.  The mets aren't going to freak out over conditions that could come from a spring frontal passage, a summer storm, or a decaying tropical system.

Regardless, be prepared!

I don't know, i understand not over hyping but widespread 55 to 65mph winds is a pretty big deal....never mind if it gusts to 70....especially considering how wet the ground is in nc. If there are winds that widespread, power outages could be quite widespread which means some could be without power for a while. Irma was a weak system technically when it impacted georgia yet the impacts were very high and some were without power for days....and for those without power for days it's a big deal. 

FFCs  discussion is ominous but not unexpected to most of us i'm sure. 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1033 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...

...Hurricane Conditions Becoming More Likely For Portions of
Central Georgia...

All attention is on powerful Hurricane Michael as it churns
rapidly toward the Florida coast as a Major Category 4 storm.
Concern for the local area is that the storm will now be starting
from a more intense initial condition at landfall and increasing
forward speed will not allow as much weakening as previously
thought. That is not to say we are anticipating Hurricane force
sustained winds as this is still possible but perhaps not likely.
But what we will see is widespread Hurricane force wind gusts
within the Hurricane warned area. As we have seen from several
storms the past two years, the impacts of these gusts to the local
area are on par with sustained winds for other areas with less in
the way of trees.

Therefore, we are very much playing up the gust and Hurricane
impact potential and will be upgrading a portion of the Tropical
Storm warning to a Hurricane warning with this next issuance. Have
also increased the tornado threat for SE portions of the forecast
area beginning this afternoon and continuing through early Thu.
Flood impacts still looks on track with some flash flooding
possible with the anticipated 3 to 5 inches and locally higher
amounts.
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1 minute ago, Solak said:

Pressure down again!

10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10
Location: 29.4°N 86.0°W
Moving: NNE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 928 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

Luckily it might not have time for the winds at the surface to catch up to the pressure falls, but what it does mean is the storm will take longer to start to weaken as it moves over land.....

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Yeah. I think it’s a big deal. Personally. Especially when I’m seeing most people aren’t taking it seriously at all and aren’t prepped. Tv is telling them 15-30mph. Maybe 45mph but low chance. Then, there’s the ones not watching at all and when I post an update on Facebook they are shocked or think it’s not coming. I get the whole “survival of the fittest”. But I think these types of winds are a big deal. 

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Just now, downeastnc said:

Luckily it might not have time for the winds at the surface to catch up to the pressure falls, but what it does mean is the storm will take longer to start to weaken as it moves over land.....

yep, a big difference between a storm that is strengthening at landfall vs weakening. This is wild to me but nhc has it as still a 100mph hurricane as it enters southwest georgia. damn.  

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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Brett Adair is insane!!  He's parking himself literally in the eye at landfall.  Looking for a parking garage along the waterfront in Mexico Beach.  NUTS!!

I was there in August. I don't remember there being any parking garages. He's going to have a hard time finding a strong structure for protection--there's not a ton in Mexico Beach.

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2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yep, a big difference between a storm that is strengthening at landfall vs weakening. This is wild to me but nhc has it as still a 100mph hurricane as it enters southwest georgia. damn.  

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This. I'm no Josh but I have been in quite a few canes.  The best way I can describe it is although the measured wind velocity may be the same a strengthing cane feels much more violent. It swings wildly and very quickly from less wind to more. It is almost like taking repeated punches from a professional fighter(don't ask me how I know that). A weakening cane may have the same amount of variety in wind speed but it feels much more smoothed out.  It raises and lowers much slower than a strengthing cane.

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1 minute ago, Lookout said:

yep, a big difference between a storm that is strengthening at landfall vs weakening. This is wild to me but nhc has it as still a 100mph hurricane as it enters southwest georgia. damn.  

I still find it crazy it crashes from 100mph to 45mph in 12 hrs...and its a wound up beast with decent forward speed with trough interaction etc....should hold its own and honestly almost all modeling shows it staying stronger than a 45 mph storm.......the NHC are the experts however and I a mere mortal so I assume they have it nailed as they usually do.

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I think Brett just realized he has to move.  Heard him talking about no safe structures in Mexico Beach and no plan B route except back to PC.  If he stays he's certifiably nuts.

Now talking about going to Pt St Joe.  Thinking 25' will be high enough there.  But no way I would risk that.  These guys are at serious risk.

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

I’d be surprised if RAH doesn’t expand the TS warning for much of the CWA. Seems like a no brainer to me.

I think so. I am noticing some baby steps up. Now the news is comfortable saying 50mph. I think it’ll be a little at a time as they see how he behaves on land and also not to cause hysteria. 

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RDU is failing big time on this one IMO. After overhyping Florence, we're under hyping one of the strongest storms to ever hit the Gulf Coast that will be rocketing up through eastern NC. Unreal. Most people I work with have no clue what there in store for. 50-75mph winds is not joke. Florence barely reached 40MPH in Raleigh.

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14 minutes ago, jburns said:

This. I'm no Josh but I have been in quite a few canes.  The best way I can describe it is although the measured wind velocity may be the same a strengthing cane feels much more violent. It swings wildly and very quickly from less wind to more. It is almost like taking repeated punches from a professional fighter(don't ask me how I know that). A weakening cane may have the same amount of variety in wind speed but it feels much more smoothed out.  It raises and lowers much slower than a strengthing cane.

that is one of the more interesting descriptions i've ever heard about it... fascinating. thanks for that. 

3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

919 extrap. holy...

wow. hard to find the words...if it's not officially a cat 5 at landfall, that would almost seem unfair to michael. 

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5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

RDU is failing big time on this one IMO. After overhyping Florence, we're under hyping one of the strongest storms to ever hit the Gulf Coast that will be rocketing up through eastern NC. Unreal. Most people I work with have no clue what there in store for. 50-75mph winds is not joke. Florence barely reached 40MPH in Raleigh.

Some tv met tried to explain why Wake isn’t in warning/watch criteria yet. Doesn’t mean we won’t see high winds just not as likely for 1 min or more at a time. I didn’t know that. Regardless, I worry it is downplayed and when they decide to up the possibility of more we have little time. I am seeing some generic 50mph markers were before it was 40 and 45. Baby steps manybe?

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18 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I’d be surprised if RAH doesn’t expand the TS warning for much of the CWA. Seems like a no brainer to me.

GSP decided to pull the trigger an issued a rare Tropical Storm Warning for myself in Union as well as York County. Kinda surprised there is nothing for Charlotte or Raleigh, yet. Considering how close the center of Michael is going to be to both Metros is kind of surprising. Especially with 4-6+ inches of rain.

 
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