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Hurricane Michael


Solak
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1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

Euro has nasty winds for Eastern NC. This will end up much worse than Florence wind wise. I'm gasing up this morning bf the soccer moms figure things out.

Last night the NHC was had 20-30% chance of hurricane winds here, NWS had changed Thur night to hurricane conditions and I wake up and the NHC has a 45 mph TS over us and all the probs for anything over 45 mph winds are gone....then I saw the Euro an was like why would they do that given the output on the Euro....and the storm is coming in 20 mph stronger and a bit faster than they had it back when they had the higher probs of 50 knt and hurricane winds, yet they lower it strength over us without any real changes in the modeling as well.....Guess we will see what happens today...

 

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11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Last night the NHC was had 20-30% chance of hurricane winds here, NWS had changed Thur night to hurricane conditions and I wake up and the NHC has a 45 mph TS over us and all the probs for anything over 45 mph winds are gone....then I saw the Euro an was like why would they do that given the output on the Euro....and the storm is coming in 20 mph stronger and a bit faster than they had it back when they had the higher probs of 50 knt and hurricane winds, yet they lower it strength over us without any real changes in the modeling as well.....Guess we will see what happens today...

 

Because they don't base their forecast on a deterministic run of the Euro.

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41 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Last night the NHC was had 20-30% chance of hurricane winds here, NWS had changed Thur night to hurricane conditions and I wake up and the NHC has a 45 mph TS over us and all the probs for anything over 45 mph winds are gone....then I saw the Euro an was like why would they do that given the output on the Euro....and the storm is coming in 20 mph stronger and a bit faster than they had it back when they had the higher probs of 50 knt and hurricane winds, yet they lower it strength over us without any real changes in the modeling as well.....Guess we will see what happens today...

 

VF3 gfs has sustained winds of TS force coming through the triangle, gusts near hurricane force. I'm sure nws will catch up today and put up ts warnings for the triangle. I'm getting my chit this morning bf jq public hears the news

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31 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Not too much surprise but the track is being adjusted north and west as the ridge is holding strong. 

This is what I was warning people about last night.  This storm is not going to jettison east a quickly as they originally forecasted.  It's starting to carve a track of its own regardless of the incoming trough to the west northwest of the storm.  It's what I call doing a "frontal/jetstream buckle".  Michael might wind up making landfall closer to Destin than it will be to Panama City.

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15 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

South GA is going to have a monster storm to contend with this evening.  I hope those guys are ready for inland hurricane conditions......

NHC, as of latest track update, has it at Hurricane at 0600z at 12mi southwest of my position in Macon.( 32°50′5″N 83°49′6″W)

Yes, Lithia, you are right.  I spoke to people last night and they definitely think, like most storms, that it's being overhyped for our area.  I tried to relay the modeled potential.

Considering sending the wife and dogs to our friends in Alpharetta for a day or two.

 

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.1N  83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.
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42 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Because they don't base their forecast on a deterministic run of the Euro.

Right so pick whichever models you want.. point being they haven't really changed or as Hky points out have higher winds. So it's odd to me that the NHC backed off when all the guidance suggest otherwise. 

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1 minute ago, Shack said:

NHC, as of latest track update, has it at Hurricane at 0600z at 12mi southwest of my position in Macon.( 32°50′5″N 83°49′6″W)

Yes, Lithia, you are right.  I spoke to people last night and they definitely think, like most storms, that it's being overhyped for our area.  I tried to relay the modeled potential.

Considering sending the wife and dogs to our friends in Alpharetta for a day or two.

 


FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.1N  83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.

Hope you stay north of the center.  When opal came through in 1995 the hurricane force winds were confined to a small area just east of where the center of the storm passed. Any locations in GA that find themselves there are in for a memorable event to say the least.  

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12 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Hope you stay north of the center.  When opal came through in 1995 the hurricane force winds were confined to a small area just east of where the center of the storm passed. Any locations in GA that find themselves there are in for a memorable event to say the least.  

Might not matter to much Euro expands the wind field quite a bit and has hurricane force gust around the center the entire time the storm is over land from FL to NC....but yeah initially the SE side will be the worst according to the models but still many places in GA and hell even SC and NC potentially will see gust to 60-80 mph......

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3 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Still intensifying in my opinion currently. Lightning going off like a thunderstorm in the eye currently.. usually a sign of strengthening.

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Scary situation for Panama City.

Almost appears that it’s about to do an ERC.  Just looking at the lack of radar signals just outside of the eye wall.  But he has defied everything so far.  

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Might not matter to much Euro expands the wind field quite a bit and has hurricane force gust around the center the entire time the storm is over land from FL to NC....but yeah initially the SE side will be the worst according to the models but still many places in GA and hell even SC and NC potentially will see gust to 60-80 mph......

No doubt at some widespread TS winds inland.  I was just referring to that 10-20 miles wide area that will contain the hurricane force winds far inland.  I remember opal was fierce but I distinctly remember ending up in what was left of the eye wall.  It was horrible even here in west Atlanta. Anyone who gets in there with Michael is going to really feel the wrath even well inland. IMO 

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1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

Might be too late for that.

It is never too late... Ask Florence

 

3 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

When should we have an idea of how much of a NE turn this storm makes?   Would mean HUGE implications for piedmont of NC if it was later making the turn

Look at the radar loop posted by LithiaWx... It is already turning 

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