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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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Why split hairs? Does it really matter that it was 917 instead of 919? Get a life, kid. 

A few millibars difference in scientific analysis on a final report may indeed be splitting hairs, but why the condescending remark? It's a meteorological science forum and he even took the time to explain his reasoning for why the difference in a few mb was worth pointing out. Even if minute, it gives further evidence that the ongoing period of rapid intensification was not yet beginning to wane and may have warranted at least a mention within the report. Regardless, I don't see the need to patronize the man. There are plenty of instances of people making asinine posts. His wasn't one of them.

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On ‎5‎/‎15‎/‎2019 at 2:06 PM, Windspeed said:

A few millibars difference in scientific analysis on a final report may indeed be splitting hairs, but why the condescending remark? It's a meteorological science forum and he even took the time to explain his reasoning for why the difference in a few mb was worth pointing out. Even if minute, it gives further evidence that the ongoing period of rapid intensification was not yet beginning to wane and may have warranted at least a mention within the report. Regardless, I don't see the need to patronize the man. There are plenty of instances of people making asinine posts. His wasn't one of them.

Windspeed, The ghost is known for his posts.

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Went Scalloping in PSJ last weekend. Amazing amount of recovery over in Bay & Gulf county. Still a ton of work to do! My 3-5 year estimate will probably be correct. I’ll post some pics soon. In the meantime here’s a story about some after affects you don’t here about!

 

https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/solutions-for-the-housing-crisis-are-still-distant/

 

 

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Here are some pics from the weekend of 9/7/19

 

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As we come up on the one year anniversary a lot of this will start to pop up. Here is some drone footage of Mexico Beach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

As we come up on the one year anniversary a lot of this will start to pop up. Here is some drone footage of Mexico Beach.

 

Humbling is the only term I can find to describe the lasting effects from a storm of this magnitude. The for sale signs at the end are a sad reminder that places hit by these powerful storms will never be the same. I can only imagine before and after images of the Bahamas a year from Dorian's impact. The string of destructive Cat 4/5 landfalls beginning with Harvey is startling, to say the least. There is no comparing a Category 1 or 2 (or even a 3) to these beasts.

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With the upcoming one year anniversary of landfall tomorrow, I was reviewing all the data related to its landfall strength.  As a result, l think it suggests a 145 kt intensity is more applicable (not that it's a significant difference, in the scheme of things).  Yes, I'm aware I may be a little OCD about such estimates.  That said, here's my reasoning:

Already noted the causes as to why it's highly likely that the BP had dropped at least another 2-3 mb from the current 919 mb estimate in HURDAT2.  This would bump the wind-pressure relationships up to 145 kt.

The radar analysis argues for 145 kt, by itself, as detailed in the NHC TCR.

As stated in the TCR, it appears RECON missed sampling the peak winds, and had it done so, they'd been higher than the 152 kt at FL.

Lastly, a blend of the FLWs and the SFMR (152 kt) would equate to a 145 kt intensity, as well.   This is the current standard used the past 3 seasons with all the high-end Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes due to the probable high-bias of SFMR measurements at such extreme wind speeds.

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I made a one year retrospective short documentary on Hurricane Michael. If anyone is interested, feel free to check it out.

 

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With family in St Joe Beach & visiting the area for 25 years, This day has been on my mind for for the last week or so. It is truly amazing the amount of recovery that has occurred in the past year. Then the sobering reality of the amount of recovery that lies ahead is realized. There are as expected many many stories out today. Here is one of the many. My thoughts & Prayers are with the "Forgotten Coast"!

 

https://fox8.com/2019/10/10/one-year-later-florida-panhandle-struggles-to-recover-from-hurricane-michael/

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On 10/9/2019 at 11:53 AM, ncforecaster89 said:

With the upcoming one year anniversary of landfall tomorrow, I was reviewing all the data related to its landfall strength.  As a result, l think it suggests a 145 kt intensity is more applicable (not that it's a significant difference, in the scheme of things).  Yes, I'm aware I may be a little OCD about such estimates.  That said, here's my reasoning:

Already noted the causes as to why it's highly likely that the BP had dropped at least another 2-3 mb from the current 919 mb estimate in HURDAT2.  This would bump the wind-pressure relationships up to 145 kt.

The radar analysis argues for 145 kt, by itself, as detailed in the NHC TCR.

As stated in the TCR, it appears RECON missed sampling the peak winds, and had it done so, they'd been higher than the 152 kt at FL.

Lastly, a blend of the FLWs and the SFMR (152 kt) would equate to a 145 kt intensity, as well.   This is the current standard used the past 3 seasons with all the high-end Cat 4 and Cat 5 hurricanes due to the probable high-bias of SFMR measurements at such extreme wind speeds.

Ok champ. 

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