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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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1 minute ago, ny10019 said:

not sure if anyone posted this, but Brett and the other dude are safe. 

 

Rachael Adair
 
19 mins · 
 

Brett Adair & Stephen Johnson
is SAFE!!! They can't get out of the area they are in and others can't get in. He is in the house of a nice family that has been in contact with me. Thank you for the prayers!! He did say he needs new underwear as he soiled himself on repeated occasions today. 

You left out the last part of her statement. I added it in  italics.  

I think the devastation of the panhandles minor inland towns is going to be under-reported and tremendous. That far inland, people take a lot less care and precaution. Gonna be bad for a while. 

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I'm glad Brett & Stephen are safe, though they are almost certainly going to be liable for any damage and repairs the homeowner feels is necessary after the storm. They could also likely be made to pay rent for any days they stay.

 

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Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Data from an Air Force Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
NWS WSR-88D radar data showed that Michael continued to strengthen
until it made landfall around 1730 UTC (12:30 PM CDT) along the
coast of the Florida Panhandle between Mexico Beach and Tyndall Air
Force Base. The aircraft found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
152 kt during its final pass through southeast eyewall just before
Michael made landfall. There were SFMR measurements of 132-138 kt,
but the validity of those observations are questionable since they
occurred in shallow water and were flagged. The landfall intensity
was estimated at 135 kt (155 mph), which makes Michael the strongest
hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. since Andrew
(1992). The minimum pressure at landfall was estimated at 919 mb,
which is the third lowest landfall pressure in the United States.  A
University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site measured a minimum
pressure of 920.2 mb.

Now that the entire eyewall has moved over land, the Doppler radar
velocities have decreased and the initial intensity has been lowered
to 110 kt.  Although steady weakening is expected as Michael moves
over the southeast U.S. through Thursday morning, hurricane-force
winds will continue to penetrate inland over the Florida Panhandle,
southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia through this evening.
The circulation is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic
Thursday night and Friday, where intensification as an extratropical
cyclone is expected. The extratropical low is expected to remain
quite strong while to moves over the north Atlantic through the
weekend.  The low is expected to be absorbed by another low pressure
area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

Michael is moving northeastward of 030/14 kt, and the hurricane
should continue to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone should
turn east-northeastward and further accelerate as it moves over the
north Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, but
has trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been
adjusted accordingly.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical.  Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge
is expected to continue between Tyndall Air Force Base and Aucilla
River, where 5 to 10 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Michael will continue to produce life-threatening hurricane-force
winds well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Alabama, and southwestern Georgia this evening as the core
of the hurricane continues to move inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions southeast Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast
Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 30.9N  85.1W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
 12H  11/0600Z 32.6N  83.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 35.1N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0600Z 37.6N  74.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  12/1800Z 40.7N  66.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1800Z 46.7N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1800Z 49.2N  19.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:

I'm glad Brett & Stephen are safe, though they are almost certainly going to be liable for any damage and repairs the homeowner feels is necessary after the storm. They could also likely be made to pay rent for any days they stay.

 

Possible. There is some archane law on the books about taking shelter when life is in danger that limits damages...they are all cases where people were caught (and not purposefully in the middle of ) bad situations. Not sure what Florida has ...likely something old related to shipwrecks. Insurance should cover it anyway though....most homeowners policies have damage coverage for breaking and entering. 

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3 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I'm glad Brett & Stephen are safe, though they are almost certainly going to be liable for any damage and repairs the homeowner feels is necessary after the storm. They could also likely be made to pay rent for any days they stay.

 

I guess it's not really air B n B if you arrive by water. 

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Extreme Wind Warning
ALC069-FLC063-GAC087-099-201-253-102230-
/O.NEW.KTAE.EW.W.0004.181010T2040Z-181010T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
440 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Eastern Houston County in southeastern Alabama...
  Northeastern Jackson County in the Panhandle of Florida...
  Northwestern Decatur County in southwestern Georgia...
  Miller County in southwestern Georgia...
  Southern Early County in southwestern Georgia...
  Seminole County in southwestern Georgia...

* Until 630 PM EDT/530 PM CDT/.

* At 436 PM EDT/336 PM CDT/, National Weather Service Doppler radar
  indicated extreme winds in excess of 110 mph in association with
  the eyewall of Hurricane Michael. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
  AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado
was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your
shelter. Take action now to protect your life!

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT/400 PM CDT/ for
the Panhandle of Florida. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect
until 200 AM EDT/100 AM CDT/ for southwestern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3129 8464 3126 8464 3125 8454 3079 8467
      3082 8532 3131 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 207DEG 16KT 3081 8513

$$

Ulrich

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Frankly, I wouldn’t mind seeing Adair charger with B&E. He was beyond foolish, and is going to get himself or a copycat killed someday. 

i dont think blame for all this can be properly parceled out until after we hear adair's side.  he was part of a team and was told to go there.

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16 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I'm glad Brett & Stephen are safe, though they are almost certainly going to be liable for any damage and repairs the homeowner feels is necessary after the storm. They could also likely be made to pay rent for any days they stay.

 

Considering that their lives were in peril, they could have a valid legal defense against any claims so long as they didn't cause damage inside the home.

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

i dont think blame for all this can be properly parceled out until after we hear adair's side.  he was part of a team and was told to go there.

It should be easy enough to say, "no thanks, I value my life as does my wife and children".  But agree, lets hear the story before pointing fingers.

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Considering that their lives were in peril, they could have a valid legal defense against any claims so long as they didn't cause damage inside the home.

But he put himself in that situation.

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

But he put himself in that situation.

 

Any homeowner with a heart isn't worried about what brett did to his house. The guy interviewed even said I wasn't worried about my house I was worried for the guys.

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1 minute ago, Subtropics said:

 

Any homeowner with a heart isn't worried about what brett did to his house. The guy interviewed even said I wasn't worried about my house I was worried for the guys.

I agree with you.  BUT, if damage to the home came by the way of Brett breaking in and therefore creating a pathway for wind and rain damage, then the insurance company sure as hell will care.

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3 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

It should be easy enough to say, "no thanks, I value my life as does my wife and children".  But agree, lets hear the story before pointing fingers.

This isn’t really a story to me. The guys life was in peril. His damn truck was floating away and he was trapped. The homeowner said he was more worried about them than his house in that interview and I’m sure Brett wasn’t in there vandalizing the place. I doubt that any charges will be pursued unless they did trash the place for some reason. Homeowner said that there was just one back door that wasn’t boarded up so they probably got in that way with just maybe a broken door to get in

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1 minute ago, Subtropics said:

 

Any homeowner with a heart isn't worried about what brett did to his house. The guy interviewed even said I wasn't worried about my house I was worried for the guys.

True, but I got the distinct impression he wasn't pleased when the anchor asked him if he had left a door unlocked like many do when evacuating and Adair could easily get into his house. He replied, "If he had a  prybar it was easy."
 

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1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

This isn’t really a story to me. The guys life was in peril. His damn truck was floating away and he was trapped. The homeowner said he was more worried about them than his house in that interview and I’m sure Brett wasn’t in there vandalizing the place. I doubt that any charges will be pursued unless they did trash the place for some reason. Homeowner said that there was just one back door that wasn’t boarded up so they probably got in that way with just maybe a broken door to get in

Either way, hopefully he saved another camera or two to capture footage from the house.   They had front row seats to the surge.

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1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

This isn’t really a story to me. The guys life was in peril. His damn truck was floating away and he was trapped. The homeowner said he was more worried about them than his house in that interview and I’m sure Brett wasn’t in there vandalizing the place. I doubt that any charges will be pursued unless they did trash the place for some reason. Homeowner said that there was just one back door that wasn’t boarded up so they probably got in that way with just maybe a broken door to get in

completely agree, but as others have said he put himself in that place.  Will he be charged wit a crime?  Absolutely not!  Will the homeowner be upset?  Certainly doesnt appear to be the case.  Will he be on the hook for damages due to his needing to break into a storm bordered up home?  Possibly.

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Just now, hazwoper said:

I agree with you.  BUT, if damage to the home came by the way of Brett breaking in and therefore creating a pathway for wind and rain damage, then the insurance company sure as hell will care.

If that’s the case, that there is water damage in the home caused by him breaking in the door then whoever on his “team” that told him to go there will be responsible. And if that doesn’t happen then I’m sure some sort of crowd funding or gofundme page will pay for it 

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8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

But he put himself in that situation.

Professional storm chasing is inherently risky. That still doesn't preclude a viable defense when lives are in peril.

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8 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

 

Any homeowner with a heart isn't worried about what brett did to his house. The guy interviewed even said I wasn't worried about my house I was worried for the guys.

I don't believe the homeowner is going to seek any legal recourse against Brett Adair.

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Pretty clear already that even though Panama City avoid the RFQ, There is still significant structural damage there. They were in the rather vigorous NW eyewall for over an hour.

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Brett can easily afford the repair damages with the money he'll make off that video alone. Luckily, they live to tell their story.

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