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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm worried about the smaller towns away from the coast.  The Altha's, Alford's, and Marianna's of the world.  I'm guessing that most there did not anticipate Cat 3-4 level winds up their way.

yup.  and they dont have the economic development that usually is a prerequisite for bringing structures up to code.

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Can’t believe we have an extreme wind warning extending all the way into southwestern Georgia now and that Michael still has a well defined eye on both IR and visible satellite. 

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1 minute ago, zinski1990 said:

Don't think I've ever seen a hurricane like this where it didn't suddenly rapidly weaken after hitting land.

Exactly. This is insane and historic. Just shows how powerful it was all the way up until landfall. I’m guessing it was peaking then and was so powerful that it’s taking such a long time to weaken

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3 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Don't think I've ever seen a hurricane like this where it didn't suddenly rapidly weaken after hitting land.

Harvey did the same thing last year along with Charley in 2004.

It takes awhile for these things to wind down especially when they are intensifying heading into landfall, there's going to be a lag period.

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Michael's core structure is remarkably stable. The southwesterly mid level flow came into alignment with deep layer steering flow quite well once Michael gained an eastern component of motion. This significantly abated shear allowing better vertical stacking and the eyewall to permanently close. You will recall even with steady intensfication, the SW CDO struggled with reoccurring meso convective features rotating around the central vortex only to weaken or dissipate.

 

Michael has been and continues to be one of the most impressive GOM TCs throughout its life cycle. That the developing core was able to fight off the stronger shear out of a broad gyre and inevitably undergo rapid intensification will be the topic of many studies. Many factors favored Michael's intensity in hindsight, perhaps no two greater than the incredible upper level divergence for convective instability and above normal SSTs however. Having said that, intensity forecasting is still incredibly challenging, especially in trough interactions. Most often in these scenarios, shear wins the battle.

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There is a tremendous amount of damage on the far east end of Panama City Beach, that is technically unincorporated Bay County. A marina with large boat storage buildings, with one totally collapsed and another partially.

 

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According to the Extreme Wind Warning, which has got to be the coolest sounding alert they put out, winds were in excess of 115mph. That was about 40 minutes ago so you have to expect that it’s come down some since but yikes 

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7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

The eye is over 40 miles inland and still has mesovorticies rotating around the eyewall...

Just imagine if he were still over open ocean... If Michael wasn't a category 5 he got really darn close.

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Noticed a decent round of eyewall lightning on TWC radar product after the entire core of the system was inland.  Seems like this this storm would have been even stronger if it had a few more hours over water.

Looks like surge was significant in Mexico Beach.. Cap from TWC

2018-10-10_155010.jpg

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Michael's core structure is remarkably stable. The southwesterly mid level flow came into alignment with deep layer steering flow quite well once Michael gained an eastern component of motion. This significantly abated shear allowing better vertical stacking and the eyewall to permanently close. You will recall even with steady intensfication, the SW CDO struggled with reoccurring meso convective features rotating around the central vortex only to weaken or dissipate.
 
Michael has been and continues to be one of the most impressive GOM TCs throughout its life cycle. That the developing core was able to fight off the stronger shear out of a broad gyre and inevitably undergo rapid intensification will be the topic of many studies. Many factors favored Michael's intensity on hindsight, perhaps no two greater than the incredible upper level divergence for convective instability and above normal SSTs however. Having said that, intensity forecasting is still incredibly challenging, especially in trough interactions. Most often in these scenarios, shear wins the battle.

Wonder how much that robust WAR played into this?


.

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I remember charley very well in 2004, my grandparents have a house in Pine Island, that storm was a beast. Curiosity kills the cat, I wonder what Michael would have done with another 3-4 hours over water.

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