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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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Just now, csnavywx said:

I can't find any sensors that survived that eyewall. There's a couple that grazed the edge and got to about 95-100 sustained. Most of them cut out right before the RMW really hit.

Been trying to state that to some family members and colleagues. Seeing people already say "well there's no sustained wind greater than 82 mph so the NHC forecast busted." :facepalm:

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I don't think there has ever been a video made of inside a perfectly cleared out eye with a stadium effect 360. 

typhoon maria on miyakojima this summer...check out around 1:06

 

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Will they use that 138kts from the recon VDM as evidence to upgrade Michael to C5 in post analysis? 

EDIT: I see now that it was rain flagged on TropicalTidbits, so while it was in a VDM, they probably won't end up using it.

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27 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It seems like the eye went right over the base.  Don't know if anyone was in there to show it.  Everyone else seems to be broadcasting on the edges.

My wife’s brother is a AF General...talked to him about hurricanes during Flo. You won’t be getting anything from the base, less than a hand full of people would have been there in very secure shelter. He said they evacuate everyone a few days before hurricanes and you have no choice but to leave. 

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Will they use that 138kts from the recon VDM as evidence to upgrade Michael to C5 in post analysis? 

It was pretty suspect, here's the actual raw data. Several of the observations near this one were missing data and/or flagged as well. I'll also note that the 133 and 132 knot SFMR readings outbound were over/near land.

Time:    17:06:00Z
Coordinates:    29.783N 85.667W
Acft. Static Air Press:    700.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,583 m (8,474 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    946.1 mb (27.94 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 283° at 117 kts (From the WNW at 134.6 mph)
Air Temp:    14.1°C (57.4°F)
Dew Pt:    14.1°C (57.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    123 kts (141.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    138 kts* (158.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate:    41 mm/hr* (1.61 in/hr*)

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1 minute ago, Dunkman said:

It was pretty suspect, here's the actual raw data. Several of the observations near this one were missing data and/or flagged as well. I'll also note that the 133 and 132 knot SFMR readings outbound were over/near land.

Time:    17:06:00Z
Coordinates:    29.783N 85.667W
Acft. Static Air Press:    700.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:    2,583 m (8,474 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:    946.1 mb (27.94 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):    From 283° at 117 kts (From the WNW at 134.6 mph)
Air Temp:    14.1°C (57.4°F)
Dew Pt:    14.1°C (57.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:    123 kts (141.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:    138 kts* (158.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate:    41 mm/hr* (1.61 in/hr*)

Though if they put it in a VDM, it is likely the people on the plane feel as if it's legitimate. I also realize there probably isn't a concrete answer to the question above, just gotta wait and see if Michael joins the club in post analysis.

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6 minutes ago, Cooper08 said:

My wife’s brother is a AF General...talked to him about hurricanes during Flo. You won’t be getting anything from the base, less than a hand full of people would have been there in very secure shelter. He said they evacuate everyone a few days before hurricanes and you have no choice but to leave. 

Someone posted a tweet with a pic of it supposedly going over the base (or at least nearby).  Here is the pic -

DpKp-6CUUAAMlF2.jpg

ETA - it was Eskimo Joe with this tweet -

 

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Been trying to state that to some family members and colleagues. Seeing people already say "well there's no sustained wind greater than 82 mph so the NHC forecast busted." :facepalm:

Yeah, this was an issue during Katrina too. All those sensors got blown out pretty quickly as it made LF. It ended up being a decent proxy for the more severe wind damage. I believe even Meridian, MS got knocked offline in that case.

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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Someone posted a tweet with a pic of it supposedly going over the base (or at least nearby).  Here is the pic -

DpKp-6CUUAAMlF2.jpg

Very familiar with this area, while they evac the base. Hwy 98 runs thru the center of both the base proper & then approx. 10 miles of base property before you get to Mexico Beach. By the looks of the pic. I would guess they were just E of the base proper just past the end of the flight line.

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1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:

Very familiar with this area, while they evac the base. Hwy 98 runs thru the center of both the base proper & then approx. 10 miles of base property before you get to Mexico Beach. By the looks of the pic. I would guess they were just E of the base proper just past the end of the flight line.

Me too; I agree.

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Just now, Superstorm93 said:

 

 

Still 150mph and the eye has been completely inland for a while now- that's crazy talk.

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