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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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Posted on Brett's Facebook page by his wife Rachel...

"I'm getting tons of messages, text and calls. Thank you for the prayers. Brett is safe last I spoke with him. Keep them coming. I have people coming to be with me. Things happen to even the most experienced chasers. So lets keep things positive cause I do have kids in here and tbh 2 of then won't hesitate to get ugly back and that's the last thing I need right now."

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The house was elevated on pylons.  They had pulled the truck into some sort of un-covered 3-car (?) pull-in carport with brick/cinderblock walls on 3 sides next to the house, with someone's truck already parked there but with enough room for them to u-turn inside to face the highway.

If you want to take a better look.  Someone posted the street view of the structure they went in to in the banter thread.  Re-posting here.

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.919818,-85.3828177,3a,75y,81h,89.71t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s7R-SaOxb2q8JYA7Wn5Telg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

 

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Did anyone actually get into the eye? Would probably be some incredible photos and videos with how clear it was on vis.

It seems like the eye went right over the base.  Don't know if anyone was in there to show it.  Everyone else seems to be broadcasting on the edges.

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5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Did anyone actually get into the eye? Would probably be some incredible photos and videos with how clear it was on vis.

SN had a few chasers in the eye. Especially ones near the Tyndall AFB AWOS. Maybe they even saw sunlight? That was an incredibly warm and clear eye.

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6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Seems like a good time to point out that the severe wind damage will go well inland. Katrina produced some severe damage all the way up through northern MS and TS force winds all the way to KMEM. Michael looks to put her to shame in that department. With strong baroclinic forcing coming in tomorrow, I fully expect this thing to be producing TS force winds all the way to the mid-Atlantic coast. Going to be a ridiculous amount of power outages along the way.

Totally agree. We're just getting started in terms of the damage that's going to be done from this storm. One of the intriguing things for me since the beginning has been the potential baroclinic boost as Michael traverses the southeast and turns post tropical. The guidance has had a brief but notable period of strong winds for NC and SE VA. 

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

SN had a few chasers in the eye. Especially ones near the Tyndall AFB AWOS. Maybe they even saw sunlight? That was an incredibly warm and clear eye.

Yeah, perusing visible shots, it looks like there was a sweet spot right around there that was almost totally clear overhead. Would make for some once-in-a-lifetime shots in the clear light of the day.

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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

I honestly never thought this hurricane would get as strong as it did at landfall. Insane.

Upon review I expect we'll find the mesovortices embedded within the eyewall responsible for the development of Michael as the beast that it is.

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13 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

If you want to take a better look.  Someone posted the street view of the structure they went in to in the banter thread.  Re-posting here.

https://www.google.com/maps/@29.919818,-85.3828177,3a,75y,81h,89.71t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s7R-SaOxb2q8JYA7Wn5Telg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

 

Thank you.  They probably went around the back up and way from there to houses behind that one.

Shot from GOES-17 not long after the eye came onshore.  That eye literally just hung in there all the way.  As someone posted, it "came in hot"!!

goes-17-vis-hurricane-michael2-10102018.PNG

 

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Can you post the full VDM? I'm dumb and don't know where to find them

.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 17:51Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 22

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 17:09:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.97N 85.64W
B. Center Fix Location: 14 statute miles (23 km) to the S (174°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,402m (7,881ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 922mb (27.23 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 138kts (158.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the S (186°) of center fix at 17:06:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 287° at 129kts (From the WNW at 148.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the S (187°) of center fix at 17:07:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 133kts (153.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 17:23:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 224° at 152kts (From the SW at 174.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 17:22:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,962m (9,718ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) from the flight level center at 17:22:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb

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3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Can you post the full VDM? I'm dumb and don't know where to find them

.

Wow. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 17:51Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 22 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 17:09:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.97N 85.64W
B. Center Fix Location: 14 statute miles (23 km) to the S (174°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,402m (7,881ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 922mb (27.23 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 138kts (158.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the S (186°) of center fix at 17:06:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 287° at 129kts (From the WNW at 148.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the S (187°) of center fix at 17:07:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 133kts (153.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 17:23:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 224° at 152kts (From the SW at 174.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix at 17:22:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,962m (9,718ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) from the flight level center at 17:22:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb

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3 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Can you post the full VDM? I'm dumb and don't know where to find them

.

000
URNT12 KNHC 101751
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL142018
A. 10/17:09:50Z
B. 29.97 deg N 085.64 deg W
C. 700 mb 2402 m
D. EXTRAP 922 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 138 kt
I. 186 deg 12 nm 17:06:00Z
J. 287 deg 129 kt
K. 187 deg 9 nm 17:07:00Z
L. 133 kt
M. 117 deg 15 nm 17:23:30Z
N. 224 deg 152 kt
O. 117 deg 12 nm 17:22:30Z
P. 14 C / 2962 m
Q. 19 C / 3048 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 1514A MICHAEL OB 22
MAX FL WIND 152 KT 117 / 12 NM 17:22:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

 

TT has that 138kt rain flagged though.

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In a recent ob, PAC1 buoy pressure was about 35 mb lower than PAB located about ten miles to its west (roughly 930 vs 965). Wind sensors failed at 90 knots at PAC1 but continued in the 50-80 knot range further west (direction there being NNW). 

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I don't think there has ever been a video made of inside a perfectly cleared out eye with a stadium effect 360.  Today would have been the day.  Unfortunately (well fortunately) the eye went ashore in a very low inhabited area so perhaps no one got it.  Would have been awesome to see the cloud structure with 50,000 tops just a few miles all around in all quads.  If anyone comes across a in eye picture/video please share.

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I can't find any sensors that survived that eyewall. There's a couple that grazed the edge and got to about 95-100 sustained. Most of them cut out right before the RMW really hit.

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