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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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Hwrf didn't show a 925 pressure at landfall until last night. Only 1 model nailed the intensity, and its everyone's favorite model.

 

If you're referring to that sub 900 hogwash in the mesoscale simulation, I think I'll take the HWRF being 10 mb too high than being 25 mb too low. HWRF did quite well with this cyclone though.

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5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Hwrf didn't show a 925 pressure at landfall until last night. Only 1 model nailed the intensity, and its everyone's favorite model.

NAM showed a Cat 5 days ago and people laughed at it. It's very good with gulf tropical.

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

No

Agree. The NAM blows everything up due to how it works with modeling convection. Just because Michael may have played into its bias, does not mean it's a good model for tropicals. 

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

because maria f'n shreds and so does this

Fine, but at least post the correct information about maria if you're trying to make a point. 

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10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

If you're referring to that sub 900 hogwash in the mesoscale simulation, I think I'll take the HWRF being 10 mb too high than being 25 mb too low. HWRF did quite well with this cyclone though.

I was joking of course. Its bound to get lucky if it bombs every storm.  HWRF and and ecmwf are the best with TC intensity. They reasonable, even if inaccurate. I don't like seeing a model show an 880mb storm with 10ft of snow, cause I'll assume it's a glitch.

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This is going to be comparable to Andrew in s FL, and it could be more destructive, as Andrew passed through a narrow swath of peninsula before emerging into the GOM....Michael is going to barrel inland spreading a swath of devastation. Michael may also deal a more crippling blow to Panama City, than Andrew did Miami.

I'm not one for hyperbole, but this warrants it-

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Some really impressive lightning that's consistently popping up on radarscope in the eyewall. 

Yeah, this thing is probably still deepening.

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Yeah, I'll add some hyperbole as well. I am astonished we have this well an organized and intense TC so close to the N. GOM coast. I knew it was possible given Camille, I doubted it could occur in October however.

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Just now, Windspeed said:

Yeah, I'll add some hyperbole as well. I am astonished we have this well an organized and intense TC so close to the N. GOM coast. I knew it was possible given Camille, I doubted it could occur in October.

Yea, this one has taken me to the shed. Awful intensity forecast.

Decent on track.

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Just now, Windspeed said:

Yeah, I'll add some hyperbole as well. I am astonished we have this well an organized and intense TC so close to the N. GOM coast. I knew it was possible given Camille, I doubted it could occur in October.

 

I agree. We probably saw similar storms before records were reliable, perhaps in the early 1800s. But still a very historic event.

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I will say, though.....if there were ever a season for this to occur so late, its this year....a point that Steve (ginx) made in the sne thread. Very anomalous humidity has been the rule throughout the east, and someone else asserted that we have yet to even see front breach the GOM this fall.

Everything makes sense in hindsight-

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

v4bjOMg.png

 

Looks like recon about to make another center pass.

Almost back to circular. The stupid deepening rates might finally be about over. Crappy timing.

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Just now, AppsRunner said:

Port Saint Joe recorded gust to 84mph. Apalachicola now gusting to just under 80mph. 

Very impressive looking at apalachicopa considering they are 40 miles away from the center. I hate to see what it looks like closer to the center. 

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