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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's a CAT 5 just above the surface now. And the current structure supports these winds reaching the surface. 

Where is Josh? He finally got his sexy tight core Atlantic Storm.

Josh is down there

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i thought a  storm  in the northern gulf always weakens prior to landfall.. maybe this storm will be a exception....

Typically dry air from downsloping off land is an issue, however the flow seems to be shielding the core just enough. Water vapor shows a relatively moist SW flow with the dry air associated with the trough further West.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's a CAT 5 just above the surface now. And the current structure supports these winds reaching the surface. 

Where is Josh? He finally got his sexy tight core Atlantic Storm.

This is from a couple of hours ago:

Josh MorgermanVerified account @iCyclone

#Hurricane #MICHAEL is creeping closer. I’m impressed with the quality of the core—& honestly a little weirded out to see such Grade-A structure in a N-moving ‘cane in the N Gulf. Of course I still haven’t settled on a final position. There’s a Plan B and a Plan C.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Josh is down there

Yeah I just checked his twitter. No posts in the last 2 hours and as of then he had not yet picked a final location.

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19 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

I can’t remember the last time seeing a more structurally sound atlantic hurricane.  Maybe Andrew?

Wut? I can name dozens off the top of my head. Wilma was way better organized and way stronger. This thing looks downright ragged compared to some that I've seen in regard to satellite presentation and structure. I mean, this thing hasn't been able to close its eye off for even 12 hours straight once in its life cycle. 

That's not to say this isn't an incredible dangerous storm, because it obviously is. But you are throwing around some hyperbole imho.

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Yeah, was watching what pazzo saw, they could be in the very dangerous surge zone from what it is looking like.

Bettes and his team were there, but decided to leave. Abrams and her team left Port st. Joe to go elsewhere too. 

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Spoke to my wife's cousin who is located about 2 blocks inland (elevation 16.5ft thankfully) from the gulf in St Joe Beach which is located just east of Mexico Beach & west of Port St Joe. Hwy 98 is already inundated and impassable to vehicle travel.

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9 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i thought a  storm  in the northern gulf always weakens prior to landfall.. maybe this storm will be a exception....

Nothing is “always”. Dry air eaten half-hurricanes on radar like Katrina, Rita, Opal and Dennis are more common but there are also exceptions like Camille. If Panama City gets hit by that NE eyewall, God help them. This just happens to have a very optimal environment so close to land. 

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Just now, mappy said:

Bettes and his team were there, but decided to leave. Abrams and her team left Port Joe to go elsewhere too. 

The concern for their safety was obvious in their voices and facial expressions while they were on the air. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Bettes and his team were there, but decided to leave. Abrams and her team left Port st. Joe to go elsewhere too. 

They made a good call. This part of Florida is some of the most surge vulnerable land in the country. Some of the surge is going to be devastating unfortunately. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Bettes and his team were there, but decided to leave. Abrams and her team left Port st. Joe to go elsewhere too. 

Looking like a smart call, just east of pcb could be downright dangerous.

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Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 13:09Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 29 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 12:24:19Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.05N 86.31W
B. Center Fix Location: 87 statute miles (140 km) to the SSW (207°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 934mb (27.58 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 135° at 8kts (From the SE at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 93kts (107.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SSW (198°) of center fix at 12:22:01Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 294° at 121kts (From the WNW at 139.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SSW (201°) of center fix at 12:21:51Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 114kts (131.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 12:33:07Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 126° at 133kts (From the SE at 153.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix at 12:33:38Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,451m (8,041ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,445m (8,022ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ENE (72°) from the flight level center at 11:12:17Z

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Yea, Tyndall AFB is not going to fare well.  Hopefully they moved all the Raptors out of the way. Really quick way to ramp up storm damage costs. Breaking a few hundred million dollar jets. 

What's going to also be interesting is how this affects N/S Carolina. Those states don't need a day of 5" of rain with 50pmh gusts. Lots of deadfall still to comedown. Looks to track right through Florence affected areas with pretty significant weather. Southeast is taking a beating this year. 

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There's still a chance for that dry air to the southwest to try and punch in, but it's looking less likely than yesterday since the track is basically along the shear vector at this point.

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CDO symmetry is down a tick and cloud tops in the NE eyewall have warmed slightly in the past 45 minutes.  Still looking formidable.  Eastward component of movement is also apparent.

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1 minute ago, eduggs said:

CDO symmetry is down a tick and cloud tops in the NE eyewall have warmed slightly in the past 45 minutes.  Still looking formidable.  Eastward component of movement is also apparent.

I think once those outer bands start interacting with land, intensity will decrease some. Not that it really matters. Strong Cat 4/weak cat 4 - both are totally devastating. 

 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

926.8mb extrapolated pressure on the last recon pass. Wow. 

Yeah... the system is not weakening. 

Running out of time, but there will definitely be at least gusts to category five intensity. 

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Not that they really matter when there is a recon in the storm, but the ADT numbers are pretty insane.

 

             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                7.2     7.4     7.4
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Should be the cam to watch the surge live in Panama City Beach. If it stays up.

Hmm. Link not working. Just go to Livestormchashing and check out WxChasing cam in Panama City Beach.

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23 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is hyperbole.  There have been many others since then.  But not so many close to the US coastline.

It’s not anything more than a subjective opinion.  What else could it be? Not talking about pure strength, just aesthetics.  And of course there is ample room for much debate.

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

Not that they really matter when there is a recon in the storm, but the ADT numbers are pretty insane.

 

             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                7.2     7.4     7.4

What are the highest recorded in Atlantic history? 

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