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Major Hurricane Michael

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Here is everyone's proverbial Please ignore NAM post.

But seriously, it is not programmed or intended to handle strong tropical surface lows. It's uses are better suited for after landfall.

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Here is everyone's proverbial Please ignore NAM post.

But seriously, it is not programmed or intended to handle strong tropical surface lows. It's uses are better suited for after landfall.

Nam is better with gulf storms than atlantic ones fwiw.

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Nam is better with gulf storms than atlantic ones fwiw.


Not to derail the thread, but that's like saying I would be better suited at playing in the CFL vs NFL.

Hint: I would still get killed.
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Key West just had a gust up to 49kts(56MPH) from one of the outer bands. 

KEYW 082053Z 10016G23KT 7SM SCT009 27/26 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 12049/2024 RAB17E53 SLP098 P0026 60026 T02720256 55010

 

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Been on this board as long as it has existed -- don't remember so many significant run-to-run model fluctuation in the super short term. Maybe I'm just getting old, but 50 mile jogs just 18 hours into a run vs. a run 6 hours prior seems unusual. I can remember model PBPs where it was "18z is basically right on top of 12z position at 24 hours." Not on this storm. Would sure make me disconcerted if I worked for NHC.

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Through 42, hard to tell if it's slower, further west or a bit of both.

EDIT: Looks like slower -- pretty much the same track -- over Panama City, give or take. But landfall not until late Wed. afternoon.

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This buoy will take a pounding from intensifying Michael tomorrow:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Note that new moon is 04z tonight (9th) which means landfall within 36-42h of the tidal peak, should underscore the tidal surge concerns.

I suspect rapid intensification is likely seeing how well the cyclone came together despite eastern half impacting considerable land disruption of western Cuba. 

So back to that buoy, we'll get a direct read on how that goes as the center should go just to its west within 18-24 hours. 

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Remnants should pass hundreds of miles south of SNE

The SLP but not the associated rain shield combined with the frontal boundary.

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Visible sat fading, but has the look of an organizing system. Def westerly shear, but starting to abate somewhat vs this morning.

Rapid scan shows the core organizing, as it gets NW of that mountainous area of Cuba 

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7 minutes ago, beanskip said:

So what's the story on the ICON model? Who owns it? What's its verification history with hurricanes? Known biases? 

it's a consensus model that tries to reduce errors in intensity by blending together a mix of other models' output.  not sure what the mix is as of this season. this page has lots of good model info and you might be interested in it.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?page=models

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1 hour ago, friedmators said:

While we are at it...

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_48.png

That would typically run 180 to 195 sustained in my calculation- obviously not going to be anywhere close, though (fortunately).

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13 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Visible sat fading, but has the look of an organizing system. Def westerly shear, but starting to abate somewhat vs this morning.

Rapid scan shows the core organizing, as it gets NW of that mountainous area of Cuba 

csbMAXw01a.gif

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49 minutes ago, beanskip said:

So what's the story on the ICON model? Who owns it? What's its verification history with hurricanes? Known biases? 

Think it's a German product, bias is somewhat high on wind speeds in European storms, would take 10% off its predicted wind speeds as a rough correction. 

Let's hope the NAM is not going to verify. 

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Just now, Roger Smith said:

Think it's a German product, bias is somewhat high on wind speeds in European storms, would take 10% off its predicted wind speeds as a rough correction. 

Pretty certain that is a different ICON model than the one on these tropical spaghetti plots. 

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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

that would ruin a perfectly fine thread.  

:devilsmiley:

But seriously it can go elsewhere, like back to their subforum. There are far more important things to talk about with respect to Michael now and over the next few days.

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It's going to be an interesting scenario for the far east end of Panama City Beach where you have Grand Lagoon  coming off the channel connecting St. Andrews Bay to the Gulf. Opal's surge in 95 didn't top over and cross Thomas Drive but it did get several homes and businesses from the surge entering the channel and going up the lagoon. 

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HWRF coming in a tad stronger and landfall late morning or around noon on Wednesday. No real shift in track.

Edit: Correction, I backed over the wrong timestamp for 12z. 18z is the exact same intensity as 12z. If anything, it's consistent, if slightly weaker than the 06z and same track.a274d990dea9946005380c87d0e4ea63.gif

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4 minutes ago, beanskip said:

968 mb

Seems like it might be back in business. Flight level winds of 85 knots also 

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