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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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39 minutes ago, das said:

Compare and contrast any google maps views with this storm-specific super-res airborne digital imagery.  It's acquired by the NOAA Remote Sensing Division post storm in support of homeland security and emergency response activities:

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html?utm_source=CNN+Hurricane+Alerts&utm_campaign=5e492aef37-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_12_05_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_df10854834-5e492aef37-95699293#17/29.95111/-85.42351

Oh I have been on that site looking up and down the coast.  I also posted something here -

about how the storm damage seemed comparable to what happened in Barbuda and St. Maarteen after Irma came through and contrasted with Harvey's damage in Rockaport!

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2 hours ago, sakau2007 said:

That's a lot of words to just say that "You are right, sustained winds were not cat 4 strength at I-10."

You also realize what the word "preliminary" means, right?

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3 hours ago, sakau2007 said:

That's a lot of words to just say that "You are right, sustained winds were not cat 4 strength at I-10."

I could say a lot of other words towards your attitude in here, but I'll refrain.

Your original post was that "it was not cat x inland" and you're basing category on unrealistic (based on a literal horde of previous cases) expectations/criteria.

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Those estimated wind gusts of 130-140 mph on that map isn't representative of what I saw and experienced first-hand in Mexico Beach, either.  As mentioned above, and previously, I've documented wind gusts of 130-140 mph on three preceding occasions (Katrina, Harvey, Irma), and the extreme winds I encountered during hurricane Michael far exceeded anything I had seen, beforehand!

Not to mention, the map is also inconsistent with actual wind obs taken prior to instrument failure in places like Panama City and Tyndall Air Force Base... before the peak winds even arrived.  Only wind gusts of 120 mph in PC produced all that tremendous tree and structural damage?  No way!

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charleywindswath.jpg

WU1ONAW.png

Here's Charley and Harvey maps.  They look pretty similar.  My guess is winds get upped in the coastal region on the final map given the extent of the damage.

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56 minutes ago, Amped said:

Here's Charley and Harvey maps.  They look pretty similar.  My guess is winds get upped in the coastal region on the final map given the extent of the damage.

Here is Hugo's wind distribution by the man himself, Dr. Fujita, courtesy of Texas Tech. His handdrawn maps were works of art. Posting this version despite the watermark, as the one available from NOAA is a very low resolution scan. Regardless, Hugo was perhaps the standard for long-lived inland hurricane intensity, remaining a major well inland into the South Carolina interior. Yet to no surprise, the peak wind assessment is in gusts as that best translates over land. Fujita knew this. Also, the highest reported gust on land by Hugo was 137 mph.

20181017_230536.jpg

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Have we gotten any surge height estimates near Mexico Beach yet? I saw close to 9 ft for Apalachicola, figured it was considerably higher near the eyewall.

I know it was very strong, but it was rapidly intensifying and didn't have a ton of time to build huge surge values. Also, it was a small to medium-sized storm.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Have we gotten any surge height estimates near Mexico Beach yet? I saw close to 9 ft for Apalachicola, figured it was considerably higher near the eyewall.

I know it was very strong, but it was rapidly intensifying and didn't have a ton of time to build huge surge values. Also, it was a small to medium-sized storm.

 

 

NHC Surge estimated 9' - 14'.  Hope they release their SLOSH run soon for this to get a better idea.

 

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14 hours ago, das said:

Compare and contrast any google maps views with this storm-specific super-res airborne digital imagery.  It's acquired by the NOAA Remote Sensing Division post storm in support of homeland security and emergency response activities:

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html?utm_source=CNN+Hurricane+Alerts&utm_campaign=5e492aef37-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_12_05_17&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_df10854834-5e492aef37-95699293#17/29.95111/-85.42351

Just wanted to add this to my previous reply - I am not really a Reddit fan but there was GIS map posted there with FEMA-CAP/NOAA stills of damage throughout the area here - https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?center=29.979501,-85.363769&zoom=8&basemap=USA_basemap&overlay=NOAA_aerial_10-11a,NOAA_aerial_10-12a,NOAA_aerial_10-12b,NOAA_aerial_10-13a,NOAA_aerial_10-14a,CAP_aerial_photo_1&txtfile=https://mappingsupport.com/p2/disaster/2018/hurricane/michael_damage.txt

If you click on a dot, a window pops up that includes basic info (coordinates, date/time, camera file info, etc) and an additional link to the full size or thumbnail image of the still shot.

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Here's the original ISS video of Michael near landfall in case anyone missed it:

LANDFALL OF HURRICANE MICHAEL FROM SPACE Cameras outside the International Space Station captured views of Hurricane Michael at 12:58 p.m. EDT Oct. 10 from an altitude of 255 miles as the storm made landfall as a category 4 hurricane over the Florida panhandle.

NASA Video Library Website

 

YouTube link:

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7 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Have we gotten any surge height estimates near Mexico Beach yet? I saw close to 9 ft for Apalachicola, figured it was considerably higher near the eyewall.

I know it was very strong, but it was rapidly intensifying and didn't have a ton of time to build huge surge values. Also, it was a small to medium-sized storm.

 

 

9'+ is the estimate.  Measurements are ongoing even today but are getting harder since recovery and cleanup work is happening as we speak and erasing the evidence.

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17 hours ago, Amped said:

charleywindswath.jpg

WU1ONAW.png

Here's Charley and Harvey maps.  They look pretty similar.  My guess is winds get upped in the coastal region on the final map given the extent of the damage.

Man, that Charley map is underestimated for sure based upon damage, particularly right along and just north of Charlotte Harbor.

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Heading over to St Joe Beach tomorrow morning to assist family who rode it out. I will fill you in on their story and what I see along the way. I will have to come in from the north so I should have a decent idea of inland damage.

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