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Major Hurricane Michael

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I said it was "much weaker" in my earlier post, but that was incorrect. It is weaker on approach, yes, but it's only within a 10 mb difference near landfall. Intensity guidance on the globals shouldn't be the focus and I am guilty of it myself; however, the biggest change here on the ECMWF is the track and speed of motion, shifting west and making landfall sooner.65cc40a1a5f93da494931b5712ac4805.jpgd6a15751393142241c95e936392b7a1a.jpg

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

I said it was "much weaker" in my earlier post, but that was incorrect. It is weaker on approach, yes, but it's only within a 10 mb difference near landfall. Intensity guidance on the globals shouldn't be the focus and I am guilty of it myself; however, the biggest change here on the ECMWF is the track and speed of motion, shifting west and making landfall sooner.65cc40a1a5f93da494931b5712ac4805.jpgd6a15751393142241c95e936392b7a1a.jpg

Struggling to find a 12z model run that doesn't have landfall somewhere between Ft. Walton Beach and Panama City. Pretty decent consensus. Of course, could be a consensus of being wrong!

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21 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Struggling to find a 12z model run that doesn't have landfall somewhere between Ft. Walton Beach and Panama City. Pretty decent consensus. Of course, could be a consensus of being wrong!

Interesting that both runs put it on either side of Panama City- which is startling in that Panama City has lived a charmed life with respect to hurricanes.  They missed the worst of Opal, Ivan, Dennis and countless others (including the amazing track of Hurricane Elena).  You would think this would be a city with a favorable geography (such as Savannah or, to a lesser extent, Jacksonville).  Everything would suggest that PCB would actually be more vulnerable with the shoreline facing SSE but they have seemingly dodged all bullets from major hurricanes.  Opal came very close- even destroying many homes just to the west at Mexico Beach during Opal.  We'll see if this continues to be the case as the modeling would suggest (both in terms of actual landfall point and the relationship of the storm motion to the geography of the shoreline) that this is a very likely scenario at this time (especially if the storm is strong enough to cause a jog right upon landfall).  I think the mentality there is that it will miss because this was in paragraph 2 in the lead story online now from the paper there...

 

While the track is still uncertain, landfall is likely to the east of Bay County, between Port St. Joe and Apalachicola, around 1 p.m. Wednesday, but impacts will be widely felt.

I could be reading into it too much but I detect just a hint of "this one probably won't hit us either..." the way that was written. 

http://www.newsherald.com/news/20181008/evacuations-ordered-michael-eyes-panhandle-as-major-hurricane

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I could be reading into it too much but I detect just a hint of "this one probably won't hit us either..." the way that was written. 
http://www.newsherald.com/news/20181008/evacuations-ordered-michael-eyes-panhandle-as-major-hurricane


Did you mean Mexico Beach or possibly somewhere else? Mexico Beach is east of Tyndall AFB which is east of PC. Not trying to be a jerk, just curious if you meant somewhere else?


.

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Why are people still mentioning modeled pressures? They are less reliable than NAM snowfall maps.

Unlike Florence, Michael will have dry air entrainment to deal with as it becomes caught up in the trough and dry air wraps in from the South. This will be somewhat mitigated by the relative quick forward speed, however Michael should also receive some aid from baroclinic processes as the system transitions post landfall. 

The remnants should also deliver quite a punch as far North as SNE.

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11 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

 


Did you mean Mexico Beach or possibly somewhere else? Mexico Beach is east of Tyndall AFB which is east of PC. Not trying to be a jerk, just curious if you meant somewhere else?


.

 

I stand corrected- you are right- Mexico Beach is between Panama City and Cape San Blas and it did suffer surge damage during Opal that was probably due to the fact that they were primarily homes right on the beach- which is not something I recall seeing in Panama City Beach as that's mostly a high-rise mecca.  

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                UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                    ADT-Version 9.0                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  08 OCT 2018    Time :   184537 UTC
      Lat :   21:49:01 N     Lon :   85:06:34 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                3.6     4.0     5.7

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While this storm is way down near Cuba, it's not that far from landfall time-wise.  However, some stiff language from TAE...

 

Quote
    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
        -  Widespread structural damage to buildings in the area.
          Frame and brick buildings suffer complete roof and wall
          failures. Numerous windows blown out in high-rise buildings
          along the beach. All mobile homes destroyed. Damage greatly
          increased by large airborne projectiles. Locations affected
          may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
        - Large swaths of trees snapped uprooted with roadway signs
          blown over.
        - Nearly all primary and all secondary roads will be
          impassable.
        - Widespread power and communication outages; potentially
          lasting for weeks.

 

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Is it trolling to post the NAM?  :P  It is a bit slower with the incoming central US trough on the 18z run.  Attn Snowgoose

namconus_z500_mslp_us_fh36_trend.thumb.gif.246098558e77cb81a6d889e0bbcc4e04.gif

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Is it trolling to post the NAM?  :P  It is a bit slower with the incoming central US trough on the 18z run.  Attn Snowgoose

namconus_z500_mslp_us_fh36_trend.thumb.gif.246098558e77cb81a6d889e0bbcc4e04.gif

All of us down here tracking the storm are looking at it, no use pretending we're not!

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20 minutes ago, northwestgastormdawg said:

EURO wind gust forecast for Destin area are extreme

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2OV11Nx.png

That would be an almost complete rebuild of 30A- as depicted.  It's just a model at this point but it does give some chills just looking at it.  

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Why are people still mentioning modeled pressures? They are less reliable than NAM snowfall maps.

Unlike Florence, Michael will have dry air entrainment to deal with as it becomes caught up in the trough and dry air wraps in from the South. This will be somewhat mitigated by the relative quick forward speed, however Michael should also receive some aid from baroclinic processes as the system transitions post landfall. 

The remnants should also deliver quite a punch as far North as SNE.

Remnants should pass hundreds of miles south of SNE

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Those gusts algorithms are too aggressive I’ve found. And not by just a little bit.  

 

Generally using the 925mb winds to estimate the gusts has worked better for me on those maps

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Generally using the 925mb winds to estimate the gusts has worked better for me on those maps

Yeah I mean overall it gives you an idea., but maybe knock off 20% or so?

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Hurricane Michael Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that was
in the storm until about 1700 UTC continued to indicate that the
hurricane was deepening.  The pressure had fallen to 978 mb on
the final fix, but the aircraft was still not able to sample the
northeastern portion of the storm due to the close proximity of
land.  The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a
blend of Dvorak satellite classifications and the continued
deepening that was observed.

The upper-level outflow has gradually improved over Michael but it
is still somewhat restricted over the western portion of the storm.
There has been no significant change to the intensity forecast
thinking.  The moderate shear that has been affecting the cyclone is
not expected to prevent strengthening while Michael moves over the
warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Although the statistical
guidance is somewhat lower this cycle, the regional hurricane and
global models still favor steady to rapid strengthening, and the NHC
forecast is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP
corrected consensus model.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Michael has been wobbling as
it moves generally northward. Smoothing through the wobbles gives a
long-term initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. Michael is forecast
to move north-northwestward to northward between a deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United
States. The trough is forecast move eastward, causing Michael to
turn northeastward in 36 to 48 hours, and the cyclone should then
accelerate northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerly
flow. The 1200 UTC dynamical models have converged on both the
track and forward speed through the first 48 to 72 hours. The
updated NHC track has been nudged slightly westward through 48 hours
to be closer to the latest consensus aids.

It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm
surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,
intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still
uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge
forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible
scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of
Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along
portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the
storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for
parts of this area.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission
over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be
assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for
life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.
Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba
through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.

5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 22.2N  85.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 23.7N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 25.7N  86.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 27.9N  86.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 30.2N  85.8W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  11/1800Z 34.5N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/1800Z 39.8N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  13/1800Z 46.2N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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