Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,452
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    cberr1957
    Newest Member
    cberr1957
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, sakau2007 said:

No... I am responding to the man who said that he thought it was smart to not downgrade it based on what the storm had done earlier. I partially disagree with that assessment and I gave my reason why. 

Enough.  Just stop.

This is a grim pic of Mexico Beach-

mexico-beach-dront.jpg

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

You're acting as if the only thing they base messaging on is the saffir simpson scale in order to make the most pedantic f'n argument.

NHC did great here.  Better than outside agencies.  Better than amateurs like you.

And I wouldn't say they did great. At 96 hours out they missed the intensity by almost 100mph, didn't they?. That's not what I would call great. We can do better. We have to do better. And we will. I am sure because we are getting better every year. The strides we have made in forecasting position has been incredible over the last 30 years. Intensity forecasts have improved too, but I think this shows us that we still have a ways to go.

Some outside agencies and amateurs did better than the NHC. Some didn't throw out the HWRF intensity model. Now, granted, people calling for a cat 3 at landfall when the NHC was calling for a minimal 1 may have been blind squirrels finding a nut, but some may have legitimately seen the same things some of the computer models were seeing and incorporated that into their forecasts.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just an amazing video from inside the eye of Michael.  This guy says he has a better high-quality video that he will post to Utube.  

 

that video has been passed around this board and the internet like 1000 times since yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

And I wouldn't say they did great. At 96 hours out they missed the intensity by almost 100mph, didn't they?. That's not what I would call great. We can do better. We have to do better. And we will. I am sure because we are getting better every year. The strides we have made in forecasting position has been incredible over the last 30 years. Intensity forecasts have improved too, but I think this shows us that we still have a ways to go.

Some outside agencies and amateurs did better than the NHC. Some didn't throw out the HWRF intensity model. Now, granted, people calling for a cat 3 at landfall when the NHC was calling for a minimal 1 may have been blind squirrels finding a nut, but some may have legitimately seen the same things some of the computer models were seeing and incorporated that into their forecasts.

dude, you're a piece of work

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

that video has been passed around this board and the internet like 1000 times since yesterday.

Thanks.  That was so nice  nice of you to tell me that and make me feel like a jerk.  I had not seen it and thought someone might have missed it on the 1000 times it has gone around.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Thanks.  That was so nice  nice of you to tell me that and make me feel like a jerk.  I had not seen it and thought someone might have missed it on the 1000 times it has gone around.  

i'm not trying to make you feel bad.  but that's the most viral video of all from the storm.  of course it's been posted over and over and over.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

dude, you're a piece of work

You've replied to about 15 posts of mine this afternoon and literally not a single one has been an actual response or a refute of a claim I've made. 

Are you going to try and tell me the NHC had the intensity forecast spot on 4 days out too? 

Respecting what someone does and critiquing them don't have to be mutually exclusive. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, sakau2007 said:

You've replied to about 15 posts of mine this afternoon and literally not a single one has been an actual response or a refute of a claim I've made. 

Are you going to try and tell me the NHC had the intensity forecast spot on 4 days out too? 

Respecting what someone does and critiquing them don't have to be mutually exclusive. 

Give it a rest.  Seriously.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Give it a rest.  Seriously.

Why can I not respond to people like the ghost of leroy who continue to straw man?

 

He says I’m a piece of work because I noted that some people picked up on a stronger storm before the NHC which is a FACT and I’m not allowed to respond? Seriously? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In regards to sakau2007's comments about Category 4 winds at/north of I-10, I have to agree with his argument.  As I stated in an earlier post, TC winds are dramatically reduced relative to their open water speeds by the increase in surface roughness over land.  Based on this well-supported phenomena, I believe it is highly unlikely that category 4 force winds were sustained anywhere beyond the few miles near coast.

Boundary-layer parameterizations mimic this in hurricane models.  See the attached GIF of one of the HWRF forecasts of 10 m winds.  Wind speeds dramatically fall off - well beyond major hurricane status - over land.  This is something that happens for most, if not all, TCs that make landfall.

This is different than the asshat in the banter forum who keeps arguing that the intensity was only Cat 2 at landfall.  This was probably as much a cat-4 open-water storm as Charlie or Harvey was.

Edit: it appears that you have to click to view the animation.
 

hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_fh18-48.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually more people without power right now in North Carolina than in Florida. Lot of 50-60 mph gusts combing with saturated soils taking trees down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

This is some footage from Tyndall as Michael came ashore -

 

Barely a cat 1 :lol:

  • Like 2
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What an absolutely insane Hurricane. Unspeakable amounts of damage between Panama City to just east of Mexico Beach. The degree of tree debarking and volume of forests just being snapped in half well inland is unreal. The overhead images of Mexico Beach will be remembered for decades, as will the last 12 hours of satellite imagery prior to landfall... I see this being upgraded to category 5 following later analysis by NHC, not even a question that Michael will be a retired name. A coast, culture, and life altering storm for the Florida panhandle. 

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don’t think it’s been mentioned in this thread, but apparently Danville VA is in bad shape right now (flooding, water rescues, power outages). RDU is apparently about the get the “bad side” as well. It’s not over yet. (I think most folks still affected are posting in the SE forum.)

Link borrowed from downeastnc:

https://mobile.twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1050486762697560064

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Barely a cat 1 :lol:

LOL

I had the opportunity of going through a Cat 1 - Cosme in Acapulco. Was on vacation in Mexico back in '89 and we had flown in from Mexico City a few days before when the 'cane's eye went directly over part of Acapulco Bay overnight.  There were literally dozens of ships and boats that had come into the bay for protection before it hit.  My hotel was built on solid rock above the beach. When the eye passed over, the stars literally came out and then all hell broke loose.  The residential areas on the other side of the cliffs were flooded out and of course the power was knocked out but we were fine.  It eventually moved over the peninsula, re-emerged in the GOM and the remnant reformed to become TS Allison, which slammed into TX.  Whatever was left eventually made it to Philly so I got hit with it twice. :lol:  After that one, I believe NHC stopped renaming storms going from the Pacific to the Atlantic if the circulation was still somewhat there.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Actually more people without power right now in North Carolina than in Florida. Lot of 50-60 mph gusts combing with saturated soils taking trees down.

IMO that's partly due to the population differential.  Once you get away from the coast, central Florida panhandle is very lightly populated outside of small and medium towns dotted around here and there until you hit Tallahassee or Pensacola.   A non-trivial chunk of the area impacted by the eastern side of the storm for the first few dozen miles inland was the Appalachicola National Forest.  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Another very interesting video of inside the eye.  I have always wondered how sharp the transition is between the calm eye and the eyewall.  The clip is short but towards the end watch the rain curtains sweep back in as the eye passes.  

 

The daytime ground floor eye and eyewall video from Michael is going to be its legacy.  Here's a strong Cat 4 making landfall while strengthening during the day, with abundant stormchasers and their gear in position to intercept, all over the place.  This stuff hardly exists anywhere else, and at this quantity.  The future of meteorology and technology (and climate change, arguably) promise more of this, but for now, this storm is the king, undisputed IMO.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Another very interesting video of inside the eye.  I have always wondered how sharp the transition is between the calm eye and the eyewall.  The clip is short but towards the end watch the rain curtains sweep back in as the eye passes.  

 

Really awesome video...I wish there were no cuts though and it just played all the way through from eye to full transition. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You can see on the satellite images that Michael is transition to an extratop system  
 


Any possibility it strengthens back out over open water of the Atlantic?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

9 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

The daytime ground floor eye and eyewall video from Michael is going to be its legacy.  Here's a strong Cat 4 making landfall while strengthening during the day, with abundant stormchasers and their gear in position to intercept, all over the place.  This stuff hardly exists anywhere else, and at this quantity.  The future of meteorology and technology (and climate change, arguably) promise more of this, but for now, this storm is the king, undisputed IMO.

Wasn't there an amazing picture from Patricia that showed this? I remember seeing it right after Patricia made landfall in Mexico but never really bothered to research it to see if it was real or fake. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:


Any possibility it strengthens back out over open water of the Atlantic?

It's pretty likely it will deepen over the north atlantic... at least for a day or so before it hits cold water and fully transitions into an extratropical system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

One thing that I'd like to see in the future is an increase in AWOS/ASOS stations.  Wish places like fire department or EOCs or high schools get some AWOS tech.  It would serve the STEM / public safety fields and help NWS out.  Having local data logging and UPS capabilities for 72 hours would be equally nice because a local EM or CWOP could grab the data and send it back to the local NWS office for post-event analysis.  

How do they typically fail? Just need to build them stronger to withstand the higher wind, or do they fail from getting hit by debris?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, mfgmfg said:

How do they typically fail? Just need to build them stronger to withstand the higher wind, or do they fail from getting hit by debris?

Most ASOS are in open areas since the most accurate wind readings are taken at a distance of 10x or greater the height of an obstruction. Debris impact is possible but I would think not a common scenario given the general distance from stuff. If you make a sensor too heavy/durable then it can have a very slow response rate. Here’s a fun old school tidbit: Back in the days before mobile internet I would call the ASOS for the observations on storm chase days. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Between the troll posts, I'm hoping this doesn't get lost. 
Curious as to the history of storms maintaining Hurricane and then TS force winds this far out from landfall and traveling across the country? It astounds me that this is still a TS causing damage on another coast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The primary barrier to a more dense observation network is money. You have to put them up and maintain them. It’s not easy. Something as simple as spider webs can **** up your readings. Meth heads will steal the batteries, etc. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×