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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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43 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

And this was all wind at Tyndall, or did the surge come through there?

That’s all wind. The tree damage is similar to what I saw in Homstead after Andrew. I’ll never ever ever forget it!!

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This is some high end wind damage in Callaway, FL (where Josh was).

Destruction of high tension transmission towers is often used in rating EF3+ tornadoes as well.

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Just now, andyhb said:

This is some high end wind damage in Callaway, FL (where Josh was).

Destruction of high tension transmission towers is often used in rating EF3+ tornadoes as well.

Reed Timmer had some video of what looked to be cars pushed into a ditch there too. Also saw an image of a water tower blown down in Mexico Beach. #Cat1

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4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

This is some high end wind damage in Callaway, FL (where Josh was).

Destruction of high tension transmission towers is often used in rating EF3+ tornadoes as well.

Do you want to remind everyone wind ranges on those? 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reed Timmer had some video of what looked to be cars pushed into a ditch there too. Also saw an image of a water tower blown down in Mexico Beach. #Cat1

Waiting to see some of the damage from Blountstown further inland, which took a direct hit from the right eyewall and was where that picture with the forest blowdown in the backyard was taken.

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Do you want to remind everyone wind ranges on those? 

EF3 = 136 - 165mph

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These vids :(

 

A can't get over how all the trees look or are just blown over.  Its like the Tunguska Explosion or Mt. St. Helens eruption.  Matchsticks laying everywhere.

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8 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Waiting to see some of the damage from Blountstown further inland, which took a direct hit from the right eyewall and was where that picture with the forest blowdown in the backyard was taken.

Some of the tree damage(even inland!) is extremely impressive and reminds me of a EF2-3 tornado. Even a couple images with debarked trees. Here's a nearly complete forest blowdown near Tyndall. 

77325df19046a6c61dfde0afbc7f54fa.jpg

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10 minutes ago, mappy said:

EF3 = 136 - 165mph

You need to think of this as a miles-wide EF3 tornado, with the addition of storm surge, and the addition of multiple and sundry vortexes springing up here and there of even higher intensity. 

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Scary to think what would have happened had it come in just to the west of Panama City rather than just to the east. Would have had a little more time over the water as well.

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2 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Where is SENC and sakau?  Hopefully decided to never show their faces again in a Tropical thread.

What are you talking about? I'm right here. I'm not seeing a whole lot being posted that disputes my claim. You're such a joke to imply otherwise. Why don't you go quote what I said and tell me where I was so obviously wrong.

I'll wait.

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8 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

What are you talking about? I'm right here. I'm not seeing a whole lot being posted that disputes my claim. You're such a joke to imply otherwise. Why don't you go quote what I said and tell me where I was so obviously wrong.

I'll wait.

Friction.

/story

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Just reviewing this thread and looking at the videos.  Looks like hundreds of homes in Mexico Beach are just gone.  Swept away by tidal surge and wind.  I fear that there is going to be a substantial loss of life.  There had to have been people who didn't evacuate and were in those homes.  The body count is going to unfortunately grow.  It willl take time to search the marshes and remove rubble piles that were once homes.

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25 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Friction.

/story

So because friction exists, which I was well aware of... and therefore winds over land aren't as strong as over the open waters... I am wrong to say the NHC's winds in their advisories when the storm was inland were likely too high? 

So if someone who "devotes their life" to meteorology says that a river is 8 feet above flood stage when in actuality it is only 5 feet above flood stage, would you come to their defense and say "Well if the river wasn't also flowing downstream, the river WOULD be 8 feet above flood stage". That sounds pretty idiotic to me.

If the NHC issues an advisory saying the center of circulation is well over land and the max sustained winds are 140mph, then I would expect the storm to be producing 140mph sustained winds somewhere. Nothing that I've seen from inland wind damage pictures or observations, either unofficial or official, make me think that was happening. I think the maximum sustained winds were probably more in the 100-120 range at that point, and really, that is being generous.

But go ahead and say "Friction" and drop the mic thinking you "won" when you still haven't shown that what I said was wrong. You simply gave a one word reason why what I said was likely correct.

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43 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Here's the water tower destroyed in Mexico Beach.

Good find, Andy. A poster yesterday here said they thought a video from Mexico Beach seemed odd because they were pretty sure a water tower was supposed to be there.
 

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just reviewing this thread and looking at the videos.  Looks like hundreds of homes in Mexico Beach are just gone.  Swept away by tidal surge and wind.  I fear that there is going to be a substantial loss of life.  There had to have been people who didn't evacuate and were in those homes.  The body count is going to unfortunately grow.  It willl take time to search the marshes and remove rubble piles that were once homes.

One of the news stations interviewed a homeowner whose home became a temporary refuge for 2 storm chasers and he indicated that quite a few people DID evacuate, probably moreso given the area is flat with no barrier island in front to offer protection from the ocean.  There is often a few who do stay but the area only has a population of about 1,200 and it may actually be a bit less as it appears a good chunk of the newer housing may actually be for seasonal use and/or 2nd homes.

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15 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

So because friction exists, which I was well aware of... and therefore winds over land aren't as strong as over the open waters... I am wrong to say the NHC's winds in their advisories when the storm was inland were likely too high? 

So if someone who "devotes their life" to meteorology says that a river is 8 feet above flood stage when in actuality it is only 5 feet above flood stage, would you come to their defense and say "Well if the river wasn't also flowing downstream, the river WOULD be 8 feet above flood stage". That sounds pretty idiotic to me.

If the NHC issues an advisory saying the center of circulation is well over land and the max sustained winds are 140mph, then I would expect the storm to producing 140mph sustained winds somewhere. Nothing that I've seen from inland wind damage pictures or observations, either unofficial or official, make me think that was happening. I think the maximum sustained winds were probably more in the 100-120 range at that point, and really, that is being generous.

But go ahead and say "Friction" and drop the mic thinking you "won" when you still haven't shown that what I said was wrong. You simply gave a one word reason why what I said was likely correct.

Friction over land means that there is going to be a ∆ in Uobs vs. Uadvisory when it comes to sustained winds. You can't expect winds, especially sustained winds, to verify over land at the same levels as over the ocean. Both recorded gusts (especially with systems failing before the strongest winds impacted the stations) and damage support the notion of a category 4 hurricane at the coast along with a category 3/4 hurricane inland for some distance, probably to around I-10 in this case.

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One thing that I'd like to see in the future is an increase in AWOS/ASOS stations.  Wish places like fire department or EOCs or high schools get some AWOS tech.  It would serve the STEM / public safety fields and help NWS out.  Having local data logging and UPS capabilities for 72 hours would be equally nice because a local EM or CWOP could grab the data and send it back to the local NWS office for post-event analysis.  

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I'm starting to wonder how this guy thinks tornado winds are measured, because I'm fairly certain there aren't anemometer readings of >200mph winds from places like Joplin, so that must have only been an EF-2 right?

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