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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Check out Fujita’s study of the damage streaking in hurricane Celia (1970). This was the first big mesovortices discussion I ever read on weather boards. Our radar and satellite technology is sick these days so we are noticing them more. They can definitely enhance wind speed. 

Thanks for the reference.  Fujita really was the man.

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Some Panama city damage. 

 

That to me looks like exactly what I imagined damage from a landfalling high-end major (140+) to look like in an area without mostly concrete buildings like for Irma in the Islands or Maria (at Palmas Del Mar) - like a 10 mile wide, 2-hour-long EF2-3 tornado went through.

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1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Thanks for the reference.  Fujita really was the man.

His maps are not even weather porn, but erotic weather art. From the aforementioned source:

 

1DB5B438-D1DE-4423-BC66-97043991C2AA.jpeg.38f932e023f5918fe9b66cc2ade4646a.jpeg

 

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20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I haven't seen anyone on this forum say that Michael was worse or even comparable..just that we have to wait and see.  I think where the news media is comparing the two is that the pressure on Michael was likely lower.  And yes, what Andrew did was spectacular in terms of the kind of damage that it did.  I have no idea if Michael did that type of damage today or not.  Just have to wait for folks get in the air tomorrow.  If the worst was at Tyndall AFB, they might not even release some of that footage.  Hopefully, these folks along get Panhandle don't have to experience the total rebuild that Florida City and Homestead experienced.  Again, the lasting impression of Andrew for me was seeing cars that were almost totally stripped of paint one one side.  What was impressive about Michael is "where" the cat 4 occurred.   Andrew hit the Gulf Stream and just plowed into south Florida.  Michael was able to do this over shallow water and in the Big Bend of Florida which tends to weaken hurricanes due to its shape.  Both were impressive storms w compact eyes.  I suppose Andrew will always be at the top of the list for me just because it was the first time that I had seen category 5 damage up close.  After seeing that, no way I would ever try to ride out that type of storm.  I should add...it also looked like the dead of winter when we got there because the trees were stripped almost completely of their leaves.  Michael does have a legitimate shot IMHO of being the benchmark hurricane for that section of the GOM.  Just based on geography and seasonal steering currents aloft, it would be tough to get a storm much stronger.  Now, south Florida is another story....plenty of warm water and long track hurricane possibilities make it a place where the Labor Day storm at some point could be relived.

I visited S. Florida in April 1993.  I had the opportunity to view the devastation in the Homestead area after Andrew.  Every home was damaged or destroyed.  I drove down Palm Dr. which leads to the Turkey Point nuclear plant.  All trees in the forested area adjacent to the road were ripped out of the ground and covered in coral sand.  The tree tops were pointed to the east.  Two things that amazed me was the survival of the nuclear plant along with the Homestead Coral Castle.

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Reed caught some really high wind gusts in this video. 

 

Worst part of Charley’s legacy was this genre of video. At least this wasn’t as bad as the ones from Florence with all the chasers standing around waiting for a canopy to fail. 

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Wonder how high the winds were in Panama City. They were in the typically weaker northern/western eyewall, however there was constant strong convection in that quad during landfall, and they were in the eyewall for a good 90+ minutes.

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31 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Derailed box cars are seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael in Panama City, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2018. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

image.png.8d3f87773214a669bf3c7d95324d3831.png

What was the EF rating of the tornado in the famous train derailment video?  That would be comparable wind speeds, no?

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Just now, LSC97wxnut said:

What was the EF rating of the tornado in the famous train derailment video?  That would be comparable wind speeds, no?

There have been quite a few tornadoes that have had photos of train derailment. I do remember seeing photos of the may 22 2004 2.5 mile wide hallam ne ef4 do it and Tuscaloosa 2011 do it that I remember off the bat

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Just now, zinski1990 said:

There have been quite a few tornadoes that have had photos of train derailment. I do remember seeing photos of the may 22 2004 2.5 mile wide hallam ne ef4 do it and Tuscaloosa 2011 do it that I remember off the bat

There was an EF 2 or 3 in Illinois that did it too. One of the lakes people will remember. 

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

There was an EF 2 or 3 in Illinois that did it too. One of the lakes people will remember. 

Poplar Grove-Harvard tornado of January 7, 2008. Crazy thing was the train was in motion at the time.

https://www.weather.gov/lot/07Jan2008_tornado

 

That Timmer video though...some of the most intense daytime "whiteout" footage from a CONUS landfall in the HD era. Basically what Irma would have been had it not gone into Cuba. You can hear what Warren Faidley called the "Devil's scream" in the chapter about Andrew in his book.

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

There was an EF 2 or 3 in Illinois that did it too. One of the lakes people will remember. 

Jan 7th 08.

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18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Reed caught some really high wind gusts in this video. 

 

That's literally 1/4 mile up Thomas Drive from where my parents have a place in Venture Out. It's easy to say sustained winds here are solid cat-3 with very intense gusts. 

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4ft of water plus waves can also flip box cars.  Not sure there are any relatively low lying rail lines in the high surge zone.

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A lot of the shots of the woods/trees from Michael remind me of Hugo. I'm sure other storms are similar but Hugo is the worst hurricane I was able to see the immediate aftermath of in person so it's definitely my reference point.

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I'd never fully appreciated it until now but it really is astonishing how technology has changed meteorology.  Dramatically and very quickly.  The oldest tool in the kit is, I guess, the recon plane (besides surface stations).  And now we have surface stations that transmit wirelessly and through satellite, we have GOES-16 delivering astonishing detail on every aspect of a storm in nearly real time, and we have the infrastructure that allows people inside of a storm to broadcast video of it in real time to the entire world.  Not to mention numerical weather prediction with reliability now measured beyond hours, and well into the range of several days for at least most basic details.

To me it all culminates in the shot of the stadium effect from inside the eye at the surface.  Someone said it earlier, that shot was Fermi's last theorem of weather.  Disseminated within minutes or a few hours or so of being taken.  Everything I talked about feeds into that, and turns the science into a work of art.

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4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

4ft of water plus waves can also flip box cars.  Not sure there are any relatively low lying rail lines in the high surge zone.

That area is a couple miles from St. Andrews Bay and substantial elevation, so there was no surge here.

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44 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The radar loops (and this was apparent in real time also) indicate that the usual RFQ stronger than opposite side of eyewall may have been modified somewhat in this hurricane because the radar intensity was always quite a bit higher over Panama City than on the Mexico Beach side. That is not to say wind speeds were higher but I have to wonder if they weren't close to being equal due to the squally nature of the stronger echoes on the so-called weak side. Also the damage in Mexico Beach may be a combined result of wind and storm surge. I think any speculation that the hurricane was less than cat-4 at landfall is based on assumptions that the wind speeds recorded are the main test, but of course if wind recordings go down due to equipment failure, that argument is pointless.

The only real debate will be whether the storm attained cat-5 at any point near or during landfall. That was about the same debate that occurred for Patricia in southern Mexico a few years ago, with mixed opinions. 

Anyway, Josh was in Tacloban and at the landfall site of Patricia, so he's seen two of the strongest landfalling hurricanes of recent years. If he's impressed, that's good enough for me. 

Don’t forget the forward speed. Although there is some debate about subtracting and adding based on quadrant and speed it’s a factor. You just have to look at the hurricane of 38 to see that it’s real. This storm while not flying was moving a decent clip.

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Andrew was no Andrew six hours after landfall. Took a while for the extent to become clear. After all, Miami dodged a bullet, so everyone else must have, too!
"New Orleans is fine. Come on down!"

Every single storm we have this happen. 24 hours later people are horrified.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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This will be an interesting hurricane up for debate for years to come on if it was a category 4 or 5. Who knows if later they upgrade it. Still incredible how it was at its peak at landfall and it held its structure well inland. This will be a debate like whether the Tuscaloosa tornado was ef4 or 5 or 2013 el reno was ef4 than downgraded to ef4 due to not enough structural damage even though mobile instruments measured 280 plus mph

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I'm sure *most* posters are well aware of this, but no Cat 2 has a perfectly formed stadium eye at and even for an hour after landfall. Even 4-5 hours after landfall the CDO and banding structure were pretty much intact. Michael was in rare territory for US landfalls, let alone N. Gulf Coast ones.

Not one sign of CDO erosion by dry air intrusion for a few hours before landfall as was seen with Irma, Ivan, Katrina and many others.

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image.png.9bef05aeac3d32fc239a55684da76f30.png

 

Derailed box cars are seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael in Panama City, Fla., Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2018. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

image.png.8d3f87773214a669bf3c7d95324d3831.png

I just as amazed by the trees. They are completely defoliated there. I wonder if that's the area with all the train tracks running beside 231 in eastern PC.

 

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

I'm sure *most* posters are well aware of this, but no Cat 2 has a perfectly formed stadium eye at and even for an hour after landfall. Michael was in rare territory for US landfalls, let alone N. Gulf Coast ones.

Yep. It seems to be agreed upon that it was very impressive how long this storm kept a good eye wall that far inland. I mean they issued an extreme wind warning in the far se al and sw Georgia counties

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