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Major Hurricane Michael

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So now looks like Panama City is not getting N or E eyewall so that is a major bullet dodged. 

The thing that is interesting is the dynamics of the blowout of the bays and when that starts - does Tyndall AFB get massively flooded from the bay side? 

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4 minutes ago, wendy said:

Brett is talking on the live stream. He's going to Port St Joe where there's a parking structure with 25 ft elevation. He better start driving soon though.

The road runs right along the coast from Mexico Beach to PSJ; let’s hope he is well on his way.

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1 minute ago, Derecho! said:

So now looks like Panama City is not getting N or E eyewall so that is a major bullet.

The thing that is interesting is the dynamics of the blowout of the bays and when that starts - does Tyndall AFB get massively flooded from the bay side? 

true but the further east it gets the more damage to tallahassee...

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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 15:23Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 13 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 29.5N 85.9W
Location: 49 statute miles (78 km) to the SSW (197°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb Information Unavailable
850mb 746m (2,448 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 21.2°C (70°F) 60° (from the ENE) 14 knots (16 mph)
700mb 2,428m (7,966 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 140° (from the SE) 9 knots (10 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:11Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.47N 85.93W
- Time: 15:11:18Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.47N 85.94W
- Time: 15:14:52Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 40° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 924mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 35° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33666
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
925mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.9°C (79°F)
850mb 23.2°C (73.8°F) 21.2°C (70°F)
710mb 18.0°C (64.4°F) 18.0°C (64°F)
696mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
925mb (Surface) 25° (from the NNE) 17 knots (20 mph)
911mb 45° (from the NE) 14 knots (16 mph)
900mb 40° (from the NE) 12 knots (14 mph)
880mb 40° (from the NE) 13 knots (15 mph)
850mb 60° (from the ENE) 14 knots (16 mph)
807mb 90° (from the E) 11 knots (13 mph)
791mb 85° (from the E) 11 knots (13 mph)
778mb 100° (from the E) 14 knots (16 mph)
723mb 115° (from the ESE) 16 knots (18 mph)
696mb 150° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph)

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Just now, zippity said:

The road runs right along the coast from Mexico Beach to PSJ; let’s hope he is well on his way.

Bridge to PSJ is closed. He has to turn around now.

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2 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

So now looks like Panama City is not getting N or E eyewall so that is a major bullet.

The thing that is interesting is the dynamics of the blowout of the bays and when that starts - does Tyndall AFB get massively flooded from the bay side? 

This is incorrect. Panama City will be seeing some aspect of the eyewall. In fact I still think the center passes closer to Panama City than Mexico Beach.

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Just now, Subtropics said:

Bridge to PSJ is closed. He has to turn around now.

Yeah, and he lost signal too. That's a bad area for cellphones on clear days.

God bless him. He's in for one heck of a ride.

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2 minutes ago, zippity said:

The road runs right along the coast from Mexico Beach to PSJ; let’s hope he is well on his way.

I just heard him say there is a bridge that is closed and he is turning around - not good, unless I (hopefully) mis heard him.

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Wow,  pressure down to Andrew like.  The only good news if Panama City can stay out of NE eyewall.  Most all the built up areas are west of Panama City.  I toured Andrew destruction.  If you got in the eyewall almost everything destroyed even brick building had very severe damage.  Just out of the eyewall lots of 70-80mph winds but damage much lighter.  It's the donut right around the eye that everything happens and will be critical.  

 

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4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

true but the further east it gets the more damage to tallahassee...

Yeah, Tallahasse looks to be mostly spared of the hurricane force winds as things currently stand, but it won't take much to put the city under the line of fire.  I'm out of town now on an unrelated vacation, but my apartment is in NE Tallahasse, so I'm hoping things don't get too bad now. I wish I hadn't parked my car under a tree now...

Hopefully Hermine purged the weakest trees, but Tallahassee is not prepared at all to deal with a major hurricane.  So many trees overhanging roads and structures...

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Just now, parrisbutch said:

Yeah, and he lost signal too. That's a bad area for cellphones on clear days.

God bless him. He's in for one heck of a ride.

I'm nervous for him. He's trapped on this island now...

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This is incorrect. Panama City will be seeing some aspect of the eyewall. In fact I still think the center passes closer to Panama City than Mexico Beach.

I specified N and E eyewall. Obviously will get W Eyewall. But has major surge implications. 

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Update to 923 mb, 130 kts on the latest advisory.

Just under CAT 5 at the surface now and well above that just above it.

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Just now, Memphis Weather said:

NHC raised winds to 150 mph with 923 mb  

Sticking a fork in a Cat 5...just not enough time left over water.  It's going to be interesting to see the AWOS/ASOS reports from this.

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As per Google earth, Mexico Beach is a 2-3 mile long strip of flat land with a population of about 2 or 3 thousand people, and the only building of any size appears to be the "El Governor" Hotel right on the coast, a four storey concrete structure that, based on previous Josh encounters with eyewalls (e.g. Patricia) is almost certain to get its roof blown off. There are several mobile home parks also. A 15 foot storm surge would likely go right through this location as the general elevation seems to be lower than 12 feet. 

I hope most of the people in that town evacuated yesterday. An Andrew-Homestead outcome is certainly possible around there. 

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