Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

Recommended Posts

Pretty obvious mesovorts in the eye. Reminiscent of Harvey near landfall last year with the wavenumber 5 pattern. Max velocities are roughly +125kts/-150kts at about a 8500ft beam height.

kevx_20181010_1346_BR_0.5.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Satellite presentation.  Recon lags reality somewhat.  And the pressure reading itself may be a lagging statistic.  That doesn't mean winds will immediately weaken.

I'm not sure what you're looking at. A bit of warming on IR is normal during the day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regardless of pressure data, the SFMR and dropsonde data has to support an upgrade. Barring some kind of rapid core degradation, this will make landfall a Cat 4 and likely a high end one. Again, can't rule out a 5, but the data has to support it.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Gotta go for.the record now.  Hope to see an upgrade to Cat 5 at 11am.

I haven't seen any recon data yet that supports sustained cat 5 winds at the surface yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, even if it falls below say -- 920, it will take some time for the PGF to spin the winds up to match. It will likely need to keep the same rate of intensification for another 3-4 hours to do so before LF.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not sure what you're looking at. A bit of warming on IR is normal during the day.

Symmetry of the CDO.  Relative lack of convection NE of the center.  Slightly drier air visible on WV imagery wrapping in from land and penetrating the western core.

It's just nitpicking a beautiful and powerful hurricane satellite structure.  But lots of people wishcast constant RI, and that's not what I see.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, eduggs said:

Symmetry of the CDO.  Relative lack of convection NE of the center.  Slightly drier air visible on WV imagery wrapping in from land and penetrating the western core.

It's just nitpicking a beautiful and powerful hurricane satellite structure.  But lots of people wishcast constant RI, and that's not what I see.

Michael has always been a bit lopsided with the stronger sustained convection in the Western quadrant. Nothing really new today.

And wishcasting can occur in both directions.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Symmetry of the CDO.  Relative lack of convection NE of the center.  Slightly drier air visible on WV imagery wrapping in from land and penetrating the western core.

It's just nitpicking a beautiful and powerful hurricane satellite structure.  But lots of people wishcast constant RI, and that's not what I see.

Nobody is wish casting. Recon supports RI

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Memphis Weather said:

144 kt FL just recorded 

They got 156kts at 922mb in the Northern eyewall. I have no idea what level 922mb would be in this case. I know that normally it would be around 2400' above sea level.

recon_AF306-1314A-MICHAEL_dropsonde18_20181010-1314.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Michael has always been a bit lopsided with the stronger sustained convection in the Western quadrant. Nothing really new today.

And wishcasting can occur in both directions.

It had slightly better symmetry an hour or two ago.  I don't "wish" for a particular outcome.  And I don't care being right because I'm not a forecaster and nobody depends on my analysis.  I'm just trying to contribute to the overall objectivity of the forum.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Three flights in Michael now so there's a lot of data coming in. 

One recent pass just recorded 928.9mb extrapolated pressure
144kt FL wind
122kt SFMR

Those were SE eyewall too, correct? That kinda data plus what we are seeing on radar may be enough to upgrade if the steady intensification we've been seeing continues. Not that a high end cat4 vs low cat5 means all that much difference in terms of impact.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, this hurricane played that head-fake game all day yesterday (with open eyewalls, asymmetric bursting, slight tilt) and with perhaps one short pause, it strengthened right through it. It took full advantage of the high CI environment and simply sidestepped the issues by doing continuous bursts of VHTs.

It doesn't have quite the hot tower setup it had yesterday, but that pesky westerly-southwesterly shear isn't impeding on the core nearly as much and now there's a big new outflow channel to the north. All of that intense +PV aggregation from yesterday and last night has strengthened the warm core so much that it's now having no issues sustaining <-80C tops in the southern semicircle (as the tropopause is pushed up).

If the pressure trend flattens out in the next few hours, I'll breathe easier. But I'm not sure I'd count on it.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mattb65 said:

Those were SE eyewall too, correct? That kinda data plus what we are seeing on radar may be enough to upgrade if the steady intensification we've been seeing continues. Not that a high end cat4 vs low cat5 means all that much difference in terms of impact.

It was the SE eyewall. Wow. 

Another plane is going to make a SW to NE pass. I'm getting nothing done at work lol. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, this hurricane played that head-fake game all day yesterday (with open eyewalls, asymmetric bursting, slight tilt) and with perhaps one short pause, it strengthened right through it.

It doesn't have quite the hot tower setup it had yesterday, but that pesky westerly-southwesterly shear isn't impeding on the core nearly as much and now there's a big new outflow channel to the north. All of that intense +PV aggregation from yesterday and last night has strengthened the warm core so much that it's now having no issues sustaining <-80C tops in the southern semicircle (as the tropopause is pushed up).

If the pressure trend flattens out in the next few hours, I'll breathe easier. But I'm not sure I'd count on it.

The eye continues to look better on better on radar. Now a very intense, symmetrical eyewall with deep convection completely surrounding the eye.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was thinking yesterday that the less-than-perfect environmental conditions throughout Michael's trek through the gulf could end up actually being a bad thing for the US, keeping the storm from blowing its load out over the middle of the gulf and then going through an eyewall cycle and having its core disrupted before landfall.  The conditions, instead, allowed steady intensification, with occasional plateaus, right up to landfall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, this hurricane played that head-fake game all day yesterday (with open eyewalls, asymmetric bursting, slight tilt) and with perhaps one short pause, it strengthened right through it. It took full advantage of the high CI environment and simply sidestepped the issues by doing continuous bursts of VHTs.

It doesn't have quite the hot tower setup it had yesterday, but that pesky westerly-southwesterly shear isn't impeding on the core nearly as much and now there's a big new outflow channel to the north. All of that intense +PV aggregation from yesterday and last night has strengthened the warm core so much that it's now having no issues sustaining <-80C tops in the southern semicircle (as the tropopause is pushed up).

If the pressure trend flattens out in the next few hours, I'll breathe easier. But I'm not sure I'd count on it.

It's been rather humbling to watch this. You've done a good job outlining the development of this. I, for one, never thought it would get to this stage., An amazing display of a rather favorable environment and a wind field that is very tight WRT the damaging aspect of winds. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The eye continues to look better on better on radar. Now a very intense, symmetrical eyewall with deep convection completely surrounding the eye.

Could also be that the eye is getting closer to the radar...

i would expect steady state until landfall, very hard to intensify over shallow water with half the circulation over land 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Could also be that the eye is getting closer to the radar...

i would expect steady state until landfall, very hard to intensify over shallow water with half the circulation over land 

No, it's mesoscale eye dynamics.  Note the mesovortice pattern changing with time.  There is a paper on this.  Small storms can intensify through landfall - see Andrew or Tracy (normally I wouldn't cite to the mega storms, but that's now the gestalt of intensity we're dealing with here so . . .there it is)

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Could also be that the eye is getting closer to the radar...

i would expect steady state until landfall, very hard to intensify over shallow water with half the circulation over land 

harvey did it!!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×