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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, increasingly likely that we see an intensifying or steady-state n GOM LF...rare.

Harvey last year as well. Didn't Charley have rapid intensification right before landfall too? 

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Harvey last year as well. Didn't Charley have rapid intensification too? 


He did clarify northern GOM. Considering that perhaps only Camille was more intense this close to shoreline, this is about as rare as it gets.
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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 13:29Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 34 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 29.2N 86.2W
Location: 75 statute miles (120 km) to the SSW (206°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
932mb (27.53 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.9°C (79°F) 250° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
925mb 71m (233 ft) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 280° (from the W) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 818m (2,684 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 20.6°C (69°F) 315° (from the NW) 8 knots (9 mph)
700mb 2,498m (8,196 ft) 14.8°C (58.6°F) 14.8°C (59°F) 305° (from the NW) 3 knots (3 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 13:11Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.18N 86.19W
- Time: 13:11:34Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.17N 86.19W
- Time: 13:15:21Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 295° (from the WNW)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 315° (from the NW)
- Wind Speed: 6 knots (7 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 932mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 280° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33666
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
932mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.9°C (79°F)
850mb 23.6°C (74.5°F) 20.6°C (69°F)
697mb 14.4°C (57.9°F) 14.4°C (58°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
932mb (Surface) 250° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
928mb 280° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph)
908mb 300° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 315° (from the NW) 8 knots (9 mph)
697mb 285° (from the WNW) 3 knots (3 mph)

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The Western eyewall opened up just a tad on the last radar image. Not sure if it's the start of something or just temporary noise.

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Seeing on social media that lots of people are riding it out in high rises along the beach in the Panama City area. With all the focus on the surge they think they're safe high up, but those winds....

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't see any signs of a ERC quite yet. 

I edited my post. Looks like it was just another intense band near the eye, but not the start of an actual ERC. 

Looks like convection in the Western eyewall is intensifying again as well.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Michael is now sub 930

This very close to a cat 5.

not quite -- can't take those extrapolated pressure readings at face value. 

 

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2 minutes ago, wendy said:

Seeing on social media that lots of people are riding it out in high rises along the beach in the Panama City area. With all the focus on the surge they think they're safe high up, but those winds....

Lots of 15-20+ story condos and hotels in PCB.  Anyone left in those are in for a hell of a ride. 

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1 minute ago, wendy said:

Seeing on social media that lots of people are riding it out in high rises along the beach in the Panama City area. With all the focus on the surge they think they're safe high up, but those winds....

Someone can correct me if I am mistaken, but in this case I would think 925mb winds are basically surface winds in this case.

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Michael has probably already peaked.  I looks like the worst surge will occur well east of the bay inlet, but there's a ton of water being piled in front of the storm right now.  Panama City will still probably experience significant wind damage since it will likely be in or near the northern or western eyewall.

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Look at those mesovortices rotating within the eyewall band:

cool stuff about mesovorts within the eyewall

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27 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I still think just east of Panama City gets the worst of the onshore winds and surge.

Best case scenario for track at this point is for the eastern eyewall to land between Tyndall AFB and Mexico Beach.  Still, that is threading a needle and would still put a lot of people in harms' way.

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Just now, eduggs said:

Michael has probably already peaked.  I looks like the worst surge will occur well east of the bay inlet, but there's a ton of water being piled in front of the storm right now.  Panama City will still probably experience significant wind damage since it will likely be in or near the northern or western eyewall.

Why? 

No signs of weakening. No signs of ERC or report of secondary wind maxima by recon. Pressure still falling, expect further intensification right through LF.

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Just now, wendy said:

Seeing on social media that lots of people are riding it out in high rises along the beach in the Panama City area. With all the focus on the surge they think they're safe high up, but those winds....

There are chasers down there along the beaches of Panama City and I saw a shot where there was one area just behind some high rises that looked like a trailer park area with some double-wides and other assorted dwellings (I guess for tourists?). OMG.

GOES-17 vis screen cap -

 

goes-17-vis-hurricane-michael-10102018.PNG

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7 minutes ago, wendy said:

Seeing on social media that lots of people are riding it out in high rises along the beach in the Panama City area. With all the focus on the surge they think they're safe high up, but those winds....

And afterward the likelihood of being stuck in said highrises for who knows how long, without power or running water.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Why? 

No signs of weakening. No signs of ERC or report of secondary wind maxima by recon. Pressure still falling, expect further intensification right through LF.

Satellite presentation.  Recon lags reality somewhat.  And the pressure reading itself may be a lagging statistic.  That doesn't mean winds will immediately weaken.

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6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Michael has probably already peaked.  I looks like the worst surge will occur well east of the bay inlet, but there's a ton of water being piled in front of the storm right now.  Panama City will still probably experience significant wind damage since it will likely be in or near the northern or western eyewall.

Dropping pressures doesn't signify a peak. If it stops dropping or weakening then yes

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Just now, fourseasons said:

And afterward the likelihood of being stuck in said highrises for who knows how long, without power or running water.

safer to be in a high rise then a single family home...

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Just now, csnavywx said:

3-4mb drop in the past hour -- nothing to shake a stick at.

Gotta go for.the record now.  Hope to see an upgrade to Cat 5 at 11am.

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