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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Coming in hot. Some warming just outside the NE eyewall band in the CDO. Otherwise, the eye is about as clear as it has been so far.923c6ef50e4bd905ccf55296b8c032fd.gif

It almost looks as if the eye ejects that warm area and immediately afterwards the eye starts shaping up even better. Is this coincidence or is there a better meteorological explanation for it? Or have I just been staring at IR loops too long?

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Don't think you can get much more textbook than this. God help those people. It really improved its outflow and cleared out the eye. So circular now. Clouds did warm some but could be typical diurnal effects

goes16_ir_14L_201810101218.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Coming in hot. Some warming just outside the NE eyewall band in the CDO. Otherwise, the eye is about as clear as it has been so far.923c6ef50e4bd905ccf55296b8c032fd.gif

That looks like diurnal effects to me, not any weakening of of convection.

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The eye is looking better and better on radar and the eyewall on the SW side finally is sustaining deep convection. 

Recon just made a SW to NE pass. Waiting on the dropsonde. 

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Just getting up and wow. There were indications this could be possible when that intense convection wrapped around during the overnight hours but this is truly a sight to behold. I hope everyone along the Gulf Coast stays safe. There's not a lot of time for weakening to take hold, and with the core of the system as organized as it is, we're unlikely to see any significant weakening if the trend reversed. If anything, we could see more strengthening...the central pressure is still falling per recon. 

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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 12:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 30 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 29.0N 86.3W
Location: 90 statute miles (144 km) to the SSW (205°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
935mb (27.61 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 26.6°C (80°F) 260° (from the W) 8 knots (9 mph)
925mb 94m (308 ft) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 26.3°C (79°F) 265° (from the W) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 840m (2,756 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.1°C (70°F) 275° (from the W) 8 knots (9 mph)
700mb 2,521m (8,271 ft) 16.2°C (61.2°F) 16.2°C (61°F) 280° (from the W) 5 knots (6 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 12:04Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.98N 86.26W
- Time: 12:04:43Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.98N 86.25W
- Time: 12:08:33Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 270° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 270° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 934mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 265° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33666
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
935mb (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) 26.6°C (80°F)
850mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.1°C (70°F)
697mb 16.0°C (60.8°F) 16.0°C (61°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
935mb (Surface) 260° (from the W) 8 knots (9 mph)
907mb 275° (from the W) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 275° (from the W) 8 knots (9 mph)
697mb 285° (from the WNW) 5 knots (6 mph)

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I just got word that the people we know who stayed at 30A freaked out and just threw everything in the car and bolted at 4am this morning. At this point, I'd say that was good call.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 12:33Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 24 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 28.9N 86.3W
Location: 96 statute miles (155 km) to the SSW (203°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
938mb (27.70 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.8°C (80°F) Unavailable
925mb 123m (404 ft) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 255° (from the WSW) 98 knots (113 mph)
850mb 869m (2,851 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 22.3°C (72°F) 275° (from the W) 87 knots (100 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 12:22Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 225° (SW) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.93N 86.34W
- Time: 12:22:26Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 28.92N 86.25W
- Time: 12:25:33Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 260° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 94 knots (108 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 275° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 87 knots (100 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 750mb to 936mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 163 gpm - 13 gpm (535 geo. feet - 43 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 250° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 92 knots (106 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33668

Height of the last reported wind: 13 geopotential meters
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
938mb (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.8°C (80°F)
850mb 22.6°C (72.7°F) 22.3°C (72°F)
750mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) 17.4°C (63°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
938mb (Surface) Unavailable
936mb 240° (from the WSW) 64 knots (74 mph)
935mb 240° (from the WSW) 75 knots (86 mph)
933mb 245° (from the WSW) 80 knots (92 mph)
930mb 250° (from the WSW) 99 knots (114 mph)
929mb 250° (from the WSW) 103 knots (119 mph)
924mb 255° (from the WSW) 98 knots (113 mph)
916mb 265° (from the W) 103 knots (119 mph)
894mb 270° (from the W) 90 knots (104 mph)
876mb 270° (from the W) 94 knots (108 mph)
850mb 275° (from the W) 87 knots (100 mph)
750mb 290° (from the WNW) 82 knots (94 mph)

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1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

looks like it's got ~29C waters to go over for the rest of it's trip over water...

And it's going to take awhile to wind down as well. It's going to be like a dump truck hitting a brick wall once the eye comes onshore. 

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3 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

I can’t remember the last time seeing a more structurally sound atlantic hurricane.  Maybe Andrew?

Charley. 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Charley. 

Yeah, this one is going to be added to the growing list that suggests the most severe WIND damage is caused by landfalling small storms, since they keep their strength better up to landfall.  Michael, Charley, Andrew, Tracy (in Oz), Camille, etc...

Big storms have big surge and wider effects, but they tend to get de-cored before landfall.

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8 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

I can’t remember the last time seeing a more structurally sound atlantic hurricane.  Maybe Andrew?

irma was a far more impressive atlantic hurricane then michael..same with maria...

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New center dropsonde

 

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 12:45Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 26 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 29.1N 86.3W
Location: 84 statute miles (134 km) to the SSW (207°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
934mb (27.58 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 26.9°C (80°F) 135° (from the SE) 8 knots (9 mph)
925mb 83m (272 ft) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 26.4°C (80°F) 165° (from the SSE) 3 knots (3 mph)
850mb 830m (2,723 ft) 23.0°C (73.4°F) 21.3°C (70°F) 195° (from the SSW) 6 knots (7 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 12:30Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.08N 86.30W
- Time: 12:30:23Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.08N 86.30W
- Time: 12:33:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 751mb to 933mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33668
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
934mb (Surface) 28.0°C (82.4°F) 26.9°C (80°F)
850mb 23.0°C (73.4°F) 21.3°C (70°F)
751mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 15.9°C (61°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
934mb (Surface) 135° (from the SE) 8 knots (9 mph)
920mb 175° (from the S) 3 knots (3 mph)
850mb 195° (from the SSW) 6 knots (7 mph)
751mb 220° (from the SW) 2 knots (2 mph)

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3 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

From Mike Dross, these are some sobering numbers!

image.thumb.png.fb27c68900144fc000fb61315755d16d.png

Cat5 just before landfall?

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7 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

From Mike Dross, these are some sobering numbers!

image.thumb.png.fb27c68900144fc000fb61315755d16d.png

There will likely be gusts around 170 somewhere, whether there are actual obs is another matter.

Stay safe up there.

 

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13 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

I can’t remember the last time seeing a more structurally sound atlantic hurricane.  Maybe Andrew?

This is hyperbole.  There have been many others since then.  But not so many close to the US coastline.

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6 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

From Mike Dross, these are some sobering numbers!

image.thumb.png.fb27c68900144fc000fb61315755d16d.png

It's a CAT 5 just above the surface now. And the current structure supports these winds reaching the surface. 

Where is Josh? He finally got his sexy tight core Atlantic Storm.

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