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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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Recon is finding winds at the peak of the strongest models now, and pressures lower than any model. Recon just did an eye pass with 125kt unflagged / 931.7mb extrap pressure.

6z HREF is already behind - showing only 110kt/145mb at 7am EST and reaching 116kt/135mb at landfall, but not having landfall for another 9 hours.

6z HMON is close with 125kt/138mb at 7am EST.

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3 minutes ago, friedmators said:

931.7

Yowza. What a drop from earlier this morning. This thing is ramping up at the wrong time. 

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15 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Yowza. What a drop from earlier this morning. This thing is ramping up at the wrong time. 

Strongest hurricane on record for the Florida Panhandle.

#Hurricane #Michael is now forecast by the National Hurricane Center to reach Category 4 strength as it heads towards the Florida Panhandle. 0 Category 4-5 hurricanes on record (since 1851) have made landfall in the Florida Panhandle.pic.twitter.com/WwKSWY8FHf
 
9 major #hurricanes have made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on record (since 1851). Here's the landfall stats on each of these storms.#HurricaneMichael #Michael pic.twitter.com/ocGsHS0q8i

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Radar doesn't even give a hint of an ERC starting. I mean, at this point, it would hardly have time to induce much weakening on the eyewall since we're so close to landfall now. We need a miracle mid-level southwest jet to blast some stable dry air into Michael's core. I'm sitting here hoping if these shelf waters between eyewall and shoreline upwell fast.032cecf6adb4ccb673014953b1deebb1.gif

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So it’s strengthened and also jogged west, putting it on course to miss the empty land east of Panama City and instead hit the populated coastline between Panama City and Destin.  This just sucks, it’s not even cool anymore.

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Going to have to start it's last second weakening soon if it is going to fall apart like Opal, Ivan Dennis and Katrina.  I don't see any big increase in shear in the next 12 hrs to help with it.

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46 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Last message from recon was a closed eye. 

 

Gotta hope for an ERC, this is not good at all for the Florida coast 

This isn’t your typical eaten by dry air N Gulf half-a-cane for sure. Still time for weakening but this is all obviously quite alarming. This is maxing out at the worst time. 

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I also can't imagine a worse place for a hurricane in the Gulf to cause a massive storm surge with the angle the storm is coming right into the ridge of the Florida bend. The waters are literally being pushed into a tight corner. This is what happened with Sandy and the curvature of the Tri-State area, but Michael is a friggen Cat 4 hurricane. I just don't see a good end here...

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1 minute ago, Ridingtime said:

I also can't imagine a worse place for a hurricane in the Gulf to cause a massive storm surge with the angle the storm is coming right into the ridge of the Florida bend. The waters are literally being pushed into a tight corner. This is what happened with Sandy and the curvature of the Tri-State area, but Michael is a friggen Cat 4 hurricane. I just don't see a good end here...

There is high water and road closures this morning all the way down here in Tampa, with a 2-4 foot surge possible.  The reach of this thing is outsize, and it’s tough to fathom what it will do to the right of landfall with all of the water being pushed by an intensifying Cat 4.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Please stop with the hyperbole doom and gloom posts.

go back to the MA thread. this only stirs the pot here. thanks. 

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Up to 145mph at 7am CST....ugh...

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101145
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IMMINENT...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected later this morning, with a turn toward the
northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the
northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and
Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to
move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move
northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and
Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the
United States on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph
(230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently
reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are spreading onshore along the
U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning area, with hurricane conditions
spreading onshore later this morning within the hurricane warning
area.  Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight,
and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the
Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this
afternoon.  This risk will spread into parts of central and southern
Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 

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Based on the last few frames of the EVX radar it looks to me that he has started the E of N movement. Could be a jog but I think this is the start of it. Conditions here in Navarre are starting to go downhill a bit with moderate rain and 20MPH winds. I live about 1.5m from the beach and the surf sounds like a jet getting ready to take off!

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None of the models really having taking the NE turn until after getting past 29N, so I guess we will see if it starts to make a turn soon. 

We are basically 7 hrs from landfall, seems like we largely have what we have. Can't see this really weakening at all at this point. Would be nice to see it take a pretty hard turn right and spare more of the populated area of the panhandle. 

 

I just hope everyone is safe along the coastline.

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Michael could still weaken slightly between now and landfall, but we are running out of time. For significant weakening, we need a trend of core degradation to begin. We don't yet have that. Michael is so well organized right now we can't rule out a little further intensification either.

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About the only thing the panhandle can be thankful for is that this isn't a large storm. Hopefully the smaller size and fairly recent status as a major hurricane keeps storm surge totals down a little. 9-14' is awful but it isn't Katrina.

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Just now, agrayson12 said:

Im in mobile. Say more things about it turning east. I like that. When is it gonna away from mob/pns...lol

The crosshairs at this point appears to be Panama City. There’s some time for a weakening trend but it’s really running short. It could go down to a high end Cat 3 at this point but I don’t see anything that would really degrade it to cause it to collapse fast enough for more than that. Environmental conditions are quite favorable due to the shear lessening. 

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I am 62 years old and remember Andrew as a strengthening storm as it approached.  Rain and wind bands, of course, preseeded the eyewall.  Actually, Bryan Norcross was somewhat surprised that the winds were not higher.  Then boom, the eyewall hit and the wind immediately went up.  I have seen this in storms Josh has chased.  Most all the energy is right on the ring around the eye.  This also might be a rare opportunity to see a cleared out eye during daylight.  Usually, the eye is filling at landfall but perhaps not with Michael.

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Fun fact...the staging areas for the USAR teams being deployed to Florida are Tallahassee and Panama City.  Someone wasnt paying attention to the NHC forecast.

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