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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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Apalachee bay is sparsely populated if that ends up being the landfall point, Florida will be pretty lucky.

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro is way east at 72hrs,  so is the UKMET.   

A slower system will probably tend to be east in this setup.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 18:35Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 
Tropical Depression: Fourteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 18:14:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18.89N 86.24W
B. Center Fix Location: 137 statute miles (221 km) to the E (79°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 714m (2,343ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the N (3°) of center fix at 17:52:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 87° at 42kts (From the E at 48.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 70 nautical miles (81 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix at 17:48:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 18:31:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 241° at 44kts (From the WSW at 50.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles) to the SE (132°) of center fix at 18:30:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 757m (2,484ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 7 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) which was observed 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 18:30:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

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1000.6 extrapolated surface pressure just reported by recon. That after passing through convection that had 56kt FL winds and 53kt SFMR winds. Michael is still a bit disorganized, but it's looking pretty solid in terms of wind and surface pressure. 

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Is it possible a new center is trying to form closer to the convection or am I getting fooled by the visible satellite imagery? It's pretty interesting that the pressures are that much lower than what recon found in the original vortex message location. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Is it possible a new center is trying to form closer to the convection or am I getting fooled by the visible satellite imagery? It's pretty interesting that the pressures are that much lower than what recon found in the original vortex message location. 

Wind field is still a bit elongated. One would expect the center to reform near the convection along the long (major) axis.

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New center per the vortex message. 

recon_AF305-0114A-CYCLONE.png

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 20:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 
Tropical Depression: Fourteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 19:47:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19.19N 85.48W
B. Center Fix Location: 163 statute miles (262 km) to the SSE (147°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 686m (2,251ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 53kts (61.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the ESE (102°) of center fix at 19:24:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 209° at 56kts (From the SSW at 64.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the ESE (105°) of center fix at 19:28:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 34kts (39.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 101 nautical miles (116 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 20:21:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 256° at 32kts (From the WSW at 36.8mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 106 nautical miles (122 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix at 20:23:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) which was observed 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the ESE (105°) from the flight level center at 19:28:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

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GFS and HWRF may have nailed the short term track if that new center takes over.

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Convective instability (both current and progged) looks very high as it treks towards and into the Gulf and decent diffluence aloft looks to stick around. That's a good thing for intensity, as it will be fighting ~20-25kt shear for a while longer yet. I don't envy NHC on trying to come up with a decent intensity forecast before landfall in this situation -- moderately sheared diffluent flow can be quite tricky.

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Intensity forecast going up.

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,
closer to the convection.  The Air Force aircraft has measured peak
925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of
40-45 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
increased to 45 kt.

Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a
highly uncertain 020/3 kt.  The overall forecast reasoning has not
changed much since the previous advisory.  Although there could be
some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical
storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the
western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central
United States.  A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then
expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough.
The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario,
however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing)
differences remain.  The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern
Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has
Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted
eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward
initial position.  The latter portion of the track forecast is again
close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track
guidance spread.

Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear.  The
shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days
while the system moves over warm waters.  This should allow for
steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael
to hurricane strength within the next couple of days.  It should
also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the
storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb.  The new NHC
intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about
36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the
storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC
forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1.  Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2.  Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

3.  Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 19.2N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 20.1N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 23.2N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 25.0N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 29.2N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 33.7N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Pretty telling spread on that EPS plot, with virtually all of the stronger members on the eastern/slower side and all of the weaker members on the western/faster side of the spread.

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Pretty telling spread on that EPS plot, with virtually all of the stronger members on the eastern/slower side and all of the weaker members on the western/faster side of the spread.

And for anyone curious as to that telling and why, a slower track prior to NE turn positions Michael in deep layer SW flow essential to allowing NE motion and abating mid level shear. This stacks/aligns the low level and mid level vortex while giving it more time over water to intensify. The faster paced and more NNW-to-northerly solutions maintain southwesterly mid level directional shear aside from less time over water. The favorable poleward upper level divergent outflow jet is going to be there regardless. Again, position and timing of that NE turn is going to be critical to landfall intensity.

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Aye, that 12Z EC run was pretty worrisome, honestly. Wouldn't take much to turn this from a sheared lower-end 'cane into a major that's strengthening into landfall.

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The only major Hurricane to hit the FL Panhandle in October that I can recall is Opal.  Landfall intensity was 100kt, 942mb despite that fact it bombed to 916mb 12hrs earlier.

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

The only major Hurricane to hit the FL Panhandle in October that I can recall is Opal.  Landfall intensity was 100kt, 942mb despite that fact it bombed to 916mb 12hrs earlier.

 

Opal did serious damage in BHM and ATL too I believe as it moved ashore quickly. 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Opal did serious damage in BHM and ATL too I believe as it moved ashore quickly. 

The distance between the 4 day and 5 day spread is 656 NM and thats an average speed of 27.3mph. If it comes in as a major it could pull an opal or hugo with deep inalnd wind damage as it hauls ass to the NE.

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Regardless, this storm is going to get a baroclinic boost after landfall that will slow the typical weakening process. With the strong cold front interaction, it may also set up a PRE, but that's TBD atm. Those folks that had to deal with Florence certainly don't need any more rain.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Opal did serious damage in BHM and ATL too I believe as it moved ashore quickly.  

Yeah it was similar to Hazel in forward speed, which also did a lot of inland damage.

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I don't buy how slow the Euro is with him, typical bias me thinks. I'd give the speed edge to the Gfs, intensity is actually quite similar on both models for landfall. 

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I don't buy how slow the Euro is with him, typical bias me thinks. I'd give the speed edge to the Gfs, intensity is actually quite similar on both models for landfall. 

 

No surprise that the more eastern GEFS spread is stronger though. My previous post was directed at the EPS specifically and not in regards to the GFS ensemble but the same situation applies. Not to beat the drum here, but a faster NE turn gives Michael a favorable atmosphere to strengthen more significantly.

 

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It wouldn't be a surprise if Michael made a run on major hurricane status. October hurricanes have been supercharged for some reason during the 2010's. Notice how many October major hurricanes developed during this decade.

October major hurricanes during the 2010's:

2017....Ophelia

2016....Matthew

2015....Joaquin

2014....Gonzalo

2012....Sandy

2011....Rina

 

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The HWRF is reaching Category 4 intensity now maxing out at 937 mb and landfalls @ 940 mb. This is probably overdone but it is interesting that the landfall point is also probably too far west and the NE motion is also underdone. I'd imagine the HWRF may get even stronger if the parent shifts east.399d78d53d6867cef830d38e8f94dce2.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The HWRF is reaching Category 4 intensity now maxing out at 937 mb and landfalls @ 940 mb. This is probably overdone but it is interesting that the landfall point is also probably too far west and the NE motion is also underdone. I'd imagine the HWRF may get even stronger if the parent shifts east.399d78d53d6867cef830d38e8f94dce2.jpg

A faster storm would delay the northeast motion some. I think a landfall near Destin is still certainly possible. The Euro is so slow it allows for a much sharper northeast motion as the trough comes in. 

A lot of timing/speed issues for a storm 72 hrs out. 

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1 minute ago, ALhurricane said:

A faster storm would delay the northeast motion some. I think a landfall near Destin is still certainly possible. The Euro is so slow it allows for a much sharper northeast motion as the trough comes in. 

A lot of timing/speed issues for a storm 72 hrs out. 

The tendency for that SE ridge to hold strong the last few years could delay the inbound trof and front and result in the storm not getting kicked east as rapidly.  

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