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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Michael

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10 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

Could have been too turbulent 

Definitely this. That convection is extremely explosive such that the vertical motion is probably just as dangerous as any other regular thunderstorm.

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HMON 18z is showing 933mb with 125kt winds  and HWRF 18z is showing significantly lower pressure versus 12z. These runs are bonkers. Although, they both have been trending towards a stronger storm. 

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3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Really intense storms on east side, just have to wonder if they ever encompass the full center.

Opal's core was never really symmetrical.  Got down to 916mb.

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HMON 18z is showing 933mb with 125kt winds  and HWRF 18z is showing significantly lower pressure versus 12z. These runs are bonkers. They both have been trending towards a stronger storm. 


HMON isn't an ocean-coupled model for Atlantic Basin so it isn't good to focus on it. The HWRF was perhaps initialized a tad low however. 21z was 945 mb. Still, it shows steady intensification through landfall as a Cat 4.cde035b099956d00ad7a77c4e41158cc.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Blitzgunner said:

HMON 18z is showing 933mb with 125kt winds  and HWRF 18z is showing significantly lower pressure versus 12z. These runs are bonkers. Although, they both have been trending towards a stronger storm. 

Why is the cranky weather guy on twitter saying this is an 80-90 mph storm like Hermine? He is also saying tornadoes will be very bad, which I believe will be true.

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8 minutes ago, Blitzgunner said:

HMON 18z is showing 933mb with 125kt winds  and HWRF 18z is showing significantly lower pressure versus 12z. These runs are bonkers. They both have been trending towards a stronger storm. 

That is just shy of CAT 5. 

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Just now, Cooper08 said:

Why is the cranky weather guy on twitter saying this is an 80-90 mph storm like Hermine? He is also saying tornadoes will be very bad, which I believe will be true.

Ignore. Him. Cranky is intentionally ignoring recon data, like always.

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Kermit might have been asked By the NHC to measure the wind field to the East for any adjustments to the upcoming advisory, they're heading back in.

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3 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Pretty surprised no one has mentioned this yet but what a gust (I'm assuming it's a gust, if not yikes).

recon_AF301-1114A-MICHAEL_dropsonde6_20181009-2206.png

The surface value doesn't quite match the rest of the vertical profile (notice how values in the levels above are much lower just 2-3mb above)....so that is probably a bad reading (or at worst a gust).

Latest VDM does show a closed eyewall again and a 8*C eye temperature differential...which is an improvement from earlier.

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7 minutes ago, Memphis Weather said:

The surface value doesn't quite match the rest of the vertical profile (notice how values in the levels above are much lower just 2-3mb above)....so that is probably false.

Latest VDM does show a closed eyewall again and a 8*C eye temperature differential...which is a major improvement (sign of intensification)

I'm not sure I'd say that. The surface value matches with the vast majority of the wind readings it's really only in a very narrow range of a few mbs that it slacks off to just under 100 kts. To be clear I'm not insinuating I think it's a 125 knot storm, far from it. But I don't think a gust of that strength is impossible in that explosive convection.

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God I hate that shaky logic in that twitter post. We've got dropsondes and SMFR and it's still not good enough for these cranks. Apparently, if there's nobody standing right there with a anemometer in hand, it doesn't count.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

God I hate that shaky logic in that twitter post. We've got dropsondes and SMFR and it's still not good enough for these cranks. Apparently, if there's nobody standing right there with a anemometer in hand, it doesn't count.

He’s just very cranky. 

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3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

God I hate that shaky logic in that twitter post. We've got dropsondes and SMFR and it's still not good enough for these cranks. Apparently, if there's nobody standing right there with a anemometer in hand, it doesn't count.

This storm likely won’t get any great obs either.  KECP is the best shot but if the eye jogs a bit east it’ll miss them too.  It’s mostly going between stations 

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This thing had looked better and better over the last 6 hours. I like CSnavy’s logic.  Despite what looked like dry air wrapping around, the massive deep convection along the semi circle of Michael earlier, really helped influx latent heat   and PV into the center. I’m not sure that was all dry air in the environmental part of the storm.

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default_yikes.png

IRhiresMich102306z.thumb.jpg.e05339a52d81ce2727157b750286671d.jpg

 

Yes, -80°C towers on the SW side of the eye is a first and big change. Clearly mid level shear is weakening/abating enough to allow that and also Michael may be starting veer more N.

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This storm likely won’t get any great obs either.  KECP is the best shot but if the eye jogs a bit east it’ll miss them too.  It’s mostly going between stations 

maybe one of the southern universities who do wx research will deploy some equipment. 

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